All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Baylor Bears
Seed: 1
Record: 24-2
Conference: Big 12
vs.
Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 5
Record: 18-6
Conference: Big East
Date: Saturday, March 27
Time: 5:15 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
These teams entered the tournament with questions unanswered; both have reached the Sweet Sixteen.
Baylor Villanova
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #11
Pomeroy: #2 Pomeroy: #11
Offense: #3 Offense: #6
Defense: #37 Defense: #71
BPI: #2 BPI: #7
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #3 LRMC: #21
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #158/#78 Tempo Total/Off: #332/#297
Consistency: #233 Consistency: #191
Last 2 games: #6 Last 2 games: #11
Villanova is just working its way near the top ten while Baylor has spent almost the entire season at #2 in the power ratings. Both teams are offense-first, but Baylor is more effective in both areas. Villanova slows the tempo down a lot, but Baylor's D is used to long possession times. The teams are of reasonable consistency and have fared roughly as expected in the tournament so far.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(1)Illinois+13, (8)Oklahoma+15, @(6)Texas Tech+8, (3)Kansas+8, @(4)Oklahoma St.+15, @(3)Texas+14, @(3)West Virginia+OT, (4)Oklahoma St.+11, (6)Texas Tech+15, =(16)Hartford+24, =(9)Wisconsin+13
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(3)Kansas-13, =(4)Oklahoma St.-9
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Baylor raced from the gate ranked #2 and looking like it as they beat future 1-seed Illinois in an otherwise cupcake pre-conference season. Those cupcakes, coupled with their three-week break leaves them with a résumé that would be worthy of a 3-seed any other year in terms of big wins. But this year it's pretty stellar; only 4 teams have more than their 9 tourney-team skins. Amazingly though as they reach the Sweet Sixteen they've beaten none of the rest of the field as the Big Twelve has fizzled out much like the Big Ten.
The Bears' Covid break occurred between game 17 (Texas) and game 18 (Iowa State). Though they beat the 2-win Cyclones it was close, 77-72 at home, by far their worst game of the season at that point. The loss at Kansas wasn't quite as bad but spoiled their perfect season. The Bears recovered over the next three games and looked to be recapturing their form—which would make sense, their practice was greatly limited during the off time—but then they had another relapse, barely beating 9-19 Kansas State 74-68 then falling to Oklahoma State 83-74. They look like they recovered against Hartford, but the jury is still out.
Baylor boasts three players in double figures: Jared Butler (17.1), MaCio Teague (16.2) and Davion Mitchell (14.1). They play a smaller, guard-heavy lineup, often having only one player over 6-5 on the court. Against Hartford, Teague led the Bears with 22 points. Against Wisconsin Teague and Mitchell at 16 but it was Matthew Mayer leading off the bench with 17.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(16)Hartford+34, @(3)Texas+4, @(12)Georgetown+13, (12)Georgetown+10, (7)Connecticut+8, (5)Creighton+12, =(12)Winthrop+12, =(13)North Texas+23
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (5)Creighton+12
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(10)Virginia Tech-OT, @(5)Creighton-16, =(12)Georgetown-1
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(5)Creighton-16
- Other losses (3): @St. John's-11, @Butler-12, @Providence-2
Overview: Villanova had a rough first 3 games, losing to 10-seed Virginia Tech in overtime. But they beat future 16-seed Hartford 87-53 to start a 9-game winning streak, beating the likes of 3-seed Texas, 12-seed Georgetown and...six other non-qualifiers. The win streak spanned a long layoff from December 23 to January 19 due to Covid (between games 9 and 10. The layoff didn't seem to affect them much, but several weeks later the random bad losses started to happen. First St. John's beat them 70-59, then Creighton blasted them 86-70, and then it was Butler's turn, 73-61. In-between these they played great, beating Marquette by 32, St. John's by 23, and Creighton by 12. But without Collin Gillespie they fell to Providence and Georgetown in their last two outings.
Villanova is led by four scorers in double figures, and it's likely two of them won't play in the tournament. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (15.7 ppg, 8.3 rebounds) is fine, but #2 scorer Collin Gillespie (14.0) is out, and likely will be joined by #3 scorer Justin Moore (12.6). That will really hurt them at the point guard position.
Robinson-Earl led the team with 22 points against Winthrop; Justin Moore ended up playing after all, scoring 15 points, a good sign for the team. Robinson-Early led with 18 against North Texas and Moore again added 15 points.
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Game Analysis: Both teams entered the tournament with a shadow of doubt.
Baylor tripped after its Covid pause, appeared to recover, then had a major relapse. Would it carry into the tournament? If so they were doomed for an early exit; if not, the championship was within their reach.
Villanova was missing Colin Gillespie and for a while, it looked like Justin Moore would miss the early games, too. Could they advance past the Round of 32 without them?
In both cases the fans' fears were for naught. Villanova played well enough in the first game without Gillespie, and Moore didn't miss the game after all. And they were even better in the 2nd game.
Baylor looked like recovery was on the way against Hartford, and the wipeout of Wisconsin implied that they really are back and ready to make a run at the title.
So that leaves us with both teams playing well, the way they have all year. Of course, Villanova didn't prove itself against great competition—just a 12-seed and a 13-seed. Baylor had to tackle always-tricky 9-seed Wisconsin. That's more proof that Baylor's run will continue against good teams. Villanova might not miss Gillespie against 12s and 13s but against a 1-seed? They'd rather have him here.
Vegas Line:
Baylor by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Baylor by 5.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Baylor: 64.1%
Villanova: 35.9%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Baylor: 55.6%
Villanova: 44.4%
Baylor by 4.5
1-seeds have a dominant 81% win rate vs. 5-seeds, but we give Baylor only a 64% chance to advance. Vegas adds a point to our margin estimate. Recent game estimates are close mostly because they include the tail end of Baylor's Covid slump which is presumably over.
Bottom line: Baylor and Villanova are both back close to full strength. That's not great news for Villanova.
Final prediction: Baylor 77, Villanova 72
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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