All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Creighton Bluejays
Seed: 5
Record: 21-8
Conference: Big East
vs.
Ohio Bobcats
Seed: 13
Record: 17-7
Conference: MAC
Date: Monday, March 22
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TNT
Ohio is yet another double-digit seed still alive in Round Two. Will Creighton end the party?
Creighton Ohio
Power Ratings
Strength: #18 Strength: #88
Pomeroy: #24 Pomeroy: #78
Offense: #20 Offense: #31
Defense: #41 Defense: #154
BPI: #15 BPI: #92
LRMC: #12 LRMC: #84
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #144/#37 Tempo Total/Off: #131/#145
SOS: #42 SOS: #160
Consistency: #297 Consistency: #348
Str x Consistency: #26 Str x Consistency: #144
2nd half season: #30 2nd half season: #49
Last 6 games: #40 Last 6 games: #43
Road Strength: #19 Road Strength: #118
Injury Modifier: #18 Injury Modifier: #75 +JPreston
As a 5-seed it's not surprising the numbers favor Creighton, but it is notable that Ohio's offense is better than Creighton's defense, opening up a window for another upset by Ohio. That their own defense is so poor and faces Creighton's #20 offense is a big counter-argument.
But look at the recent games numbers: pretty damn close. Ohio's been on a strong 4-game run while Creighton didn't do much to shrug off their Georgetown debacle—expect win their game, which is what counts.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @(7)Connecticut+OT, (7)Connecticut+8, @(12)Georgetown+15, (5)Villanova+16, =(7)Connecticut+3, =(12)UC Santa Barbara+1
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(3)Kansas-1, (12)Georgetown-7, @(5)Villanova-12, =(12)Georgetown-25
- Other losses (4): Marquette-5, @Butler-OT, Providence-4, @Xavier-8
Overview: In their brief pre-conference schedule Creighton lost to 3-seed Kansas 73-72 then lost their first Big East contest to Marquette. They won six straight but only one victim was an eventual NCAA qualifier (UConn). From there, the Bluejays won consistenly with occasional lapses, losing twice in a row two separate times. They seemed to be rolling at the end—they beat Butler 93-73 with coach Greg McDermott suspended for using insensitive language, then beat them worse when he was re-instated, 87-56. They seemed to really be united by the ordeal as they topped red hot UConn 59-56.
But then they met Georgetown, and after getting a small lead at 13-6, were victimized by a 46-8 run by Georgetown. The run spanned both halfs, meaning no adjustment or pep-talk made any difference. And they never made a run to cut into the lead. A lot of it was luck: Creighton stopped hitting their threes and everything was falling for the Hoyas. But playing your worse game of the year at the end of the season is cause for concern. Luckily, it wasn't part of a trend, so it was probably more due to Georgetown's improvement and enthusiasm than Creighton's, so it shouldn't carry over into the tournament. It does raise questions about how far they can advance.
Point guard Marcus Zegarowski is the team's leading scorer at 15.5 points per game and he's a tough customer. The Bluejays' scoring is distributed very evenly among five players in double figures. They shoot the ball really well, from both the 3 (36.7%) and the 2 (56%), but they are oddly a very poor free-throw shooting team (64%). They don't rebound well so if the shots aren't falling for some reason they can be in trouble (as we saw in the Georgetown game).
Zegarowski's 17 gave Creighton the edge in the 63-62 win over UCSB, who missed several game-winners near the end.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (15)Cleveland St.+55, =(4)Virginia+4
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(1)Illinois-2
- Other losses (6): @Marshall-14, @Akron-20, Bowling Green-8, @Toledo-17, Kent St.-10, Buffalo-20
Overview: Ohio only played two games against tournament teams this year but both were pretty incredible. After two pedestrian wins the Bobcats faced future 1-seed Illinois and led 71-67 with 2 minutes left; they lost 77-75. In their next game they took out their frustrations on 15-seed Cleveland State 101-46, a literally off-the-charts performance. They went through a losing stretch before winning 7 in a row—broken up by a lengthy Covid pause—then fell to Buffalo, 88-66. In the MAC tournament, however, they played fantastic, beating arguably the three best MAC teams in a row: Kent State 85-63, Toledo 87-80, and Buffalo 84-69. In doing so they basically proved they are the best team in the league, at least right now.
The Bobcats have a star player, 6-4 junior Jason Preston, who is getting a lot of national attention these days. He averages 16.6 points per game, 6.8 rebounds, and 7.2 assists while shooting 53% and 40.8% on three-pointers. Four other Bobcats average double figures too. It was Ben Vander Plas who led the team with 17 in their upset of Virginia, while Preston had 11 points, 13 rebounds and 8 assists.
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Game Analysis: Creighton's 73-48 loss to Georgetown in their last game before the tournament was crushing, and I was interested to see how they would respond. I didn't think they would lose in the first round, but wondered about their long-term survival. To think they've recovered from that, I would have wanted to see a dominant first-round game from them to prove they were back. The 1-point win over UCSB was hardly re-assuring.
Ohio on the other hand played their 4th great game in a row beating defending champs Virginia. This is yet another sign they're on a roll and why we picked them to advance to the Sweet Sixteen in our brackets. They had their own terrible game just prior to the win streak, losing at home to Buffalo 86-66. They came back very strong in their tournament, avenged the loss, and carried that momentum into the NCAA tournament.
Vegas Line:
Creighton by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Creighton by 9.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Creighton: 69.4%
Ohio: 30.6%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Creighton: 47.2%
Ohio: 52.8%
Creighton by 0.7
In the 2nd round the Strength power rating lines have been several points apart from the Vegas line so far; the latter seem to be slanted toward recent play a bit. Looking at that, our margin for Creighton goes from 9.4 to 0.6 when we limit to recent games, and Ohio's chances jump from 31% to 53%. Normally a 13-seed beats a 5-seed at a 18% clip.
Creighton still has the winning margin in recent games while at 47% to win due to one very outstanding performance, but the game-comparisons tilt to the Bobcats.
Bottom line: We gave Creighton a pass on their Georgetown debacle in the first round, figuring they could win it; we didn't think they'd survive the 2nd round. They won by a point and a bit of luck in game one, which doesn't make us reconsider our 2nd round pick. We had Ohio advancing and we stick with it.
Final prediction: Ohio 81, Creighton 71
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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