All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Seed: 4
Record: 21-8
Conference: Big 12
vs.
Oregon State Beavers
Seed: 12
Record: 18-12
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Sunday, March 21
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
This game is even harder to pick than it was a few days ago.
Oklahoma St. Oregon State
Power Ratings
Strength: #36 Strength: #73
Pomeroy: #29 Pomeroy: #69
Offense: #57 Offense: #54
Defense: #17 Defense: #96
BPI: #35 BPI: #75
LRMC: #23 LRMC: #77
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #43/#27 Tempo Total/Off: #315/#318
SOS: #24 SOS: #79
Consistency: #13 Consistency: #314
Str x Consistency: #18 Str x Consistency: #93
2nd half season: #28 2nd half season: #40
Last 6 games: #16 Last 6 games: #23
Road Strength: #28 Road Strength: #68
Injury Modifier: #36 Injury Modifier: #73
Oklahoma State beats Oregon State in every power ratings measure expect offense, and there it's close, #57 to #54. The Cowboys' defense is far better than the Beavers'. As with many games we've seen there will be a battle to establish tempo, with Oklahoma State the hurry-up team and Oregon State the slow pokes.
Oklahoma State is also the more consistent team, and that consistency could help prevent an upset by the 12-seed, who is very erratic, lately on the upside. It's a very close contest the more recently you look at performance, and it got closer with the first-round results.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (14): (16)Texas Southern+20, (15)Oral Roberts+5, @(11)Wichita St.+3, @(6)Texas Tech+OT, (3)Kansas+5, (3)Arkansas+4, (3)Texas+OT, (6)Texas Tech+OT, @(8)Oklahoma+OT, (8)Oklahoma+4, @(3)West Virginia+5, =(3)West Virginia+3, =(1)Baylor+9, =(13)Liberty+9
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Texas-3, (3)West Virginia-3, (1)Baylor-15, @(3)Kansas-12, @(1)Baylor-11, =(3)Texas-5
- Other losses (2): TCU-1, @TCU-3
Overview: Fun fact: Oklahoma State has the most wins over the tournament field. Not Michigan (10), not Illinois (10), not Baylor (9), but Oklahoma State with 13 to start the tournament. And they're a 4-seed? They've also lost to 6 tournament teams meaning that a whopping 19 out of their 28 games were against teams in the Big Dance; only 2-seed Ohio State matches that (and they only won 12). Other than getting swept by TCU there's not much to fault here.
The Cowboys, one of the youngest teams in the nation, are led by 6-8 freshman Cade Cunningham who averages 20.1 points per game. Cunningham normally plays as a forward but often takes the ball up the court and runs the offense at point, too. He's currently projected as the top pick in the draft; he can shoot the 3 and defend every position on defense.
Avery Anderson was the star of the Liberty win, scoring 21 points on 8 of 14 shooting as Cunningham finished with 15.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (6)USC+2, @(7)Oregon+11, =(11)UCLA+OT, =(7)Oregon+11, =(5)Colorado+2, =(5)Tennessee+14
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(6)USC-13, @(11)UCLA-5, @(5)Colorado-29, (5)Colorado-4, (7)Oregon-13
- Other losses (7): @Washington St.-4, Wyoming-3, Portland-OT, Stanford-10, Arizona-34, @Arizona-9, @Arizona St.-2
Overview: Before the Pac-12 tournament, wins over USC and Oregon in games 12 and 13 were all Oregon State could claim on its résumé, which certainly wasn't Big Dance worthy. But in three days they added UCLA, Colorado, and another win over Oregon to their list. 17-12 might seem borderline for an NCAA tournament team but it sure beats 7-9, which is what the Beavers were on February 20th.
Oregon State is led by guard Ethan Thompson who averages 15.3 points per game; he also leads the team in assists and steals. Forward Warith Alatishe is 3rd in points at 9.9 and leads with 8.5 rebounds. Roman Silva led the team with 16 points against Tennessee.
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Game Analysis: Well here we are. We picked Oklahoma State because they're a good team. We picked Oregon State because they're a very good 12-seed, they were hot, and Tennessee was not. What we didn't expect was the magnitude of victory from Oregon State. They won 70-56 whereas we figured they'd win by a point. That's made this decision harder. Meanwhile the Cowboys won 69-60, not bad but hardly inspiring over Liberty.
Cade Cunningham had a poor outing, shooting just 3 of 14 in his March Madness debut. If he's going to be the breakout star of the tournament he's supposed to be, he'd better start breaking out or this will be his last chance. He did connect on a late three to extend their lead but he was 2 of 8 from beyond the arc overall.
Vegas Line:
Oklahoma St. by 6
Power rating: spread
Oklahoma St. by 4.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Oklahoma St.: 60.9%
Oregon State: 39.1%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Oklahoma St.: 50.0%
Oregon State: 50.0%
Oklahoma St. by 1.8
Oklahoma State is favored by a handful of points or a bit more. Historically 4-seeds beat 12-seeds 68% of the time and this game is closer, with Oregon State given a 39% chance to win looking at the full season. The arbitrary 6-game chop we use shows the game to be a complete tossup, even if the Cowboys are still an overall 2 point favorite.
Bottom line: This pick seemed easy a couple days ago; not now. It really does look like a coin flip as to whether Oregon State is on a real tear or not. But I think Cade Cunningham will come through for the Cowboys.
Final prediction: Oklahoma State 71, Oregon State 69
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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