All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 4
Record: 17-6
Conference: ACC
vs.
Colorado Buffaloes
Seed: 5
Record: 23-8
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Date: Monday, March 22
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
I got it wrong on Colorado in the first round and I'm kicking myself, it should have been obvious they'd win. What will seem obvious in hindsight about this game when it's over?
Florida State Colorado
Power Ratings
Strength: #20 Strength: #8
Pomeroy: #17 Pomeroy: #10
Offense: #13 Offense: #11
Defense: #42 Defense: #25
BPI: #21 BPI: #17
LRMC: #35 LRMC: #7
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #84/#59 Tempo Total/Off: #280/#230
SOS: #48 SOS: #59
Consistency: #271 Consistency: #146
Str x Consistency: #27 Str x Consistency: #9
2nd half season: #25 2nd half season: #15
Last 6 games: #41 Last 6 games: #21
Road Strength: #51 Road Strength: #41
Injury Modifier: #20 Injury Modifier: #8 (+JWalker)
The power ratings are coming around to how good Colorado is; the Buffs are up to #8 in Strength, #10 in Pomeroy, but they were already #7 in LRMC before their first round game. Both teams have excellent offenses and good but not superb defenses. That should spur some scoring if Colorado doesn't slow the game down too much.
Both teams have had a rougher 2nd half of the season and some bad games recently, but that's just widened Colorado's advantage, and even thought they rank #21 in recent performance their most recent game was one of their best.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (7)Florida+12, (9)Georgia Tech+13, (8)North Carolina+7, (7)Clemson+19, (4)Virginia+21, =(8)North Carolina+3, =(13)UNC Greensboro+10
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(7)Clemson-10, @(9)Georgia Tech-11, @(8)North Carolina-8, =(9)Georgia Tech-5
- Other losses (2): UCF-12, @Notre Dame-10
Overview: Many teams had long breaks this season due to Covid, but FSU endured two such breaks. And unlike many teams, neither really seemed to affect their performance. The first break was after game 7 (a 77-67 loss at Clemson) on December 29. They played again on January 13 and won five straight, arguably their best play of the season; they demolished NC State 105-73 in their first game back and beat 8-seed North Carolina and 7-seed Clemson in this stretch. The 2nd Covid stop was after game 13, a 76-65 loss to Georgia Tech. They struggled a bit on their return, needing overtime to beat Wake Forest, but they won four straight in all including an 81-60 triumph over 4-seed Virginia. Whatever Leonard Hamilton, the players, or the university is doing is working; these were positive cases within the program, so they weren't practicing much if at all during the breaks.
The Seminoles are led by MJ Walker's 13.0 points per game and are the tallest team in the country, starting a lineup at 6-4, 6-5, 6-6, 6-8, and 7-1 center Balsa Koprivica, with 6-9 freshman Scottie Barnes (11.0 ppg) coming in at guard, often playing point. Barnes was ACC freshman of the year and 6th man of the year. The 'Noles are a great shooting team, particularly behind the arc, and #11 in offensive rebounds when they miss. Their only weaknesses are turnovers and defense in general where they lag in rebounding and don't force turnovers.
RaiQuan Gray scored 17 points in the 'Noles 64-54 win over UNC Greensboro.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(15)Grand Canyon+10, @(6)USC+10, (7)Oregon+7, (12)Oregon St.+29, @(12)Oregon St.+4, (6)USC+18, (11)UCLA+9, =(6)USC+2, =(12)Georgetown+23
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(5)Tennessee-9, @(11)UCLA-3, @(7)Oregon-4, =(12)Oregon St.-2
- Other losses (4): @Arizona-14, @Washington-4, Utah-3, @California-9
Overview: Colorado had a solid season full of winning streaks and few losses. They only lost one game by double digits (Arizona) and only had one losing streak of two games (California and Oregon). The losses to Washington and Cal were uncharacteristic for the Buffaloes. Also uncharacteristic was their poor free throw shooting in the Pac-12 final, where they went 12 of 20 to knock their percentage from 83.3 down to 82.2, which puts them in 2nd place now. They had been on track to beat Harvard's 82.2%, now it's up in the air, and they have to compete with new #1 Oral Roberts!
Guard McKinley Wright (15.5 ppg, 5.6 assists) leads the Buffaloes who have two others in double figures. Other than stellar free throw shooting the Buffs boast solid three-point shooting and rebounding, and they take care of the ball well.
Colorado dominated Georgetown, with Jabari Walker scoring 24 points in 20 minutes off the bench.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: I regret taking Georgetown over one of the teams I was most enthusiastic about going in, Colorado. I would have had the Buffs in the Elite Eight otherwise. They might not get there, but I wouldn't have had anyone else beat them until then. As it turns out I was fooled by Georgetown's blowout of Creighton and their solid play before that, but I should have known (and even thought at the time) that it was a product of being in Madison Square Garden where Ewing could do magic.
At any rate, I think I had Georgetown advancing another round, only because they were playing Florida State, whose (lack of) enthusiasm I've not liked. Colorado is the opposite of FSU in terms of tenacity, and on top of that the power ratings rank them higher in the first place. This is an easy one. To pick at least; as we've seen anything can happen, but I'm not conflicted about this one at all.
Vegas Line:
Florida State by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Colorado by 2.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Florida State: 43.6%
Colorado: 56.4%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Florida State: 33.3%
Colorado: 66.6%
Colorado by 4.8
Vegas has FSU by 1 1/2. Is our power ratings crazy to take Colorado by 2.5? Not really, Pomeroy has them by 2 points and BPI has them by 0.6. We give Colorado a 56% chance to win (KenPom 56%, BPI 52%). So either Vegas knows something, the betting public is foolish, or the power ratings are wrong here. It's not just us.
Normally 5-seeds have only a 45% chance to beat a 4-seed. If we look at recent play the odds for Colorado jump to 2 in 3 with a 5 point win.
Bottom line: Picking against Colorado felt wrong and sucked. Right or wrong, this pick feels right.
Final prediction: Colorado 76, Florida State 70
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments