All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 3
Record: 20-8
Conference: Big 12
vs.
USC Trojans
Seed: 6
Record: 23-7
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Monday, March 22
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
The Pac-12 tries to continue its great run in the tournament, USC taking on 3-seed Kansas.
Kansas USC
Power Ratings
Strength: #16 Strength: #11
Pomeroy: #18 Pomeroy: #9
Offense: #49 Offense: #22
Defense: #10 Defense: #8
BPI: #20 BPI: #14
LRMC: #13 LRMC: #11
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #186/#78 Tempo Total/Off: #236/#187
SOS: #35 SOS: #52
Consistency: #167 Consistency: #268
Str x Consistency: #17 Str x Consistency: #25
2nd half season: #19 2nd half season: #11
Last 6 games: #16 Last 6 games: #12
Road Strength: #26 Road Strength: #37
Injury Modifier: #16/31 JWilson Injury Modifier: #11
Pretty rare when a team as high as a 3-seed is outranked by a 6-seed, but USC is an unusual 6-seed; the Pac-12 was not highly regarded by the selection committee and they are being proven wrong. In any case, USC is preferred by all four power ratings, and their offense and defense are both better than Kansas', though the matchups will make things hard for both teams' offenses as each defense ranks in the top ten.
Kansas should have Jalen Wilson back for the game but not at 100% according to Bill Self. Their first-round game is the only sample of them playing without him; even at "far less than 100%" we should assume Kansas can play at full strength rather than use a 1-game sample. David McCormack was expected to play sparingly but he played 25 minutes and led the team in scoring, so take Self's projection with a grain of salt.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (5)Creighton+1, @(6)Texas Tech+1, (3)West Virginia+14, (8)Oklahoma+4, (4)Oklahoma St.+12, (6)Texas Tech+6, (1)Baylor+13, =(8)Oklahoma+7, =(14)Eastern Washington+11
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(1)Gonzaga-12, (3)Texas-25, @(4)Oklahoma St.-5, @(1)Baylor-8, @(8)Oklahoma-7, @(5)Tennessee-19, @(3)West Virginia-12, @(3)Texas-OT
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Kansas kicked off the season with a 102-90 loss to 1-seed Gonzaga, but 9 straight wins including 5-seed Creighton, 6-seed Texas Tech and 3-seed West Virginia put the Jayhawks at #3 in the AP poll. But after a 10-day layoff—not Covid-related—Kansas hosted 3-seed Texas and lost 84-59, and stumbled a lot from there, losing five of their next nine games. All of those losses were to tournament teams—4, 1, 8, 5, and 3—but three of their four wins were over TCU and Kansas State. Things changes again and the Jayhawks went on an incredible run, winning 8 of their last 9, beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, handing Baylor their first loss, and beating Oklahoma before having to withdraw from the Big 12 tournament due to Covid issues.
Kansas' leading scorer is Ochai Agbaji at 14.2 point per game; #2 is 6-10 David McCormack (13.4), who is questionable for the game; #3 Jalen Wilson (12.1) is the team's leading rebounder at 8.2 per game, and he is not likely to play. Reserve guard Tristan Enaruna is also questionable. These losses and potential losses might not have an effect on their first round game, but going forward it's a concern. UPDATE: McCormack will play, while Wilson is gone until at least the Round of 32.
McCormack not only played against Eastern Washington but he led the team with 22 points on 9 of 15 shooting. Wilson is expected back for the USC game at "far less than 100%"
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(6)BYU+26, (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1, =(11)Drake+16
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(7)Connecticut-3, (5)Colorado-10, @(12)Oregon St.-2, @(5)Colorado-18, =(5)Colorado-2
- Other losses (2): Arizona-9, @Utah-10
Overview: USC kicked off the season with a 95-87 overtime win over Cal Baptist, hardly a promising start. But a few games later they topped 6-seed BYU 79-53. Losses to UConn and Colorado stalled the Trojans before a 13-1 run put them at the top of the Pac-12 and in the forefront of the college basketball world. Then some turbulence hit; they lost to Arizona, Colorado, and Utah in a 4-game stretch, strangely interrupted by a huge 72-58 win over 7-seed Oregon. And right after these issues, they crushed Stanford 79-42, one of their very best outings, and beat 11-seed UCLA on the road. They lost in the Pac-12 tournament to Colorado—their third loss to the Buffaloes. The Trojans have become a very unpredictable team lately.
USC is led by the Evan Mobley (16.8 ppg, 8.6 rebounds) a 7-0 forward who is a certain lottery pick in the next NBA draft; brother Isaiah, 6-10, is the 4th leading scorer at 9.0 ppg and 2nd leading rebounder. As a team they shoot the ball well and get a lot of rebounds, as they are statistically the 2nd tallest team in the nation. On defense they are lockdown inside the arc, allowing opponents only 42% on 2-pointers. One big flaw: they shoot only 64.7% from the foul line.
Evan Mobley led with 17 against Drake while Isaiah added 15 in the 72-56 win.
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Game Analysis: We're assuming Kansas is back at full strength with Jalen Wilson back in the lineup. As we mentioned, McCormack was allegedly going to be used very little and he led them in scoring. With that precedent Wilson might have 30 points against USC. Bill Self is sandbagging we think.
This is set to become a great clash of big men underneath with 7-0 Evan Mobley taking on 6-10 David McCormack. Both players led their team to a first-round win by scoring 17 and 25 respectively. Mobley had 11 rebounds, McCormack 9. A big help in this battle for USC is Mobley's brother, Isaiah, who at 6-10 matches McCormack's height and can play against him while Evan is out. Neither Mobley brother matches McCormack's 250 pounds, though.
The focus is usually on offense, but in this case the teams are both better playing defense. What can each offense do to create opportunities? USC's offense rebounds very well which will be great to have in this game as their shots will be contested well by KU's D. Kansas will have trouble inside the 3-point line as USC is #2 in opponent 2-pt shooting percentage; they'll have to hope they make some threes though they're not the best in that department. Getting one or both Mobleys in foul trouble might be something to strive for to open up the inside a bit; they don't want both of them on the floor as often as possible.
Vegas Line:
USC by 1
Power rating: spread
USC by 1.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas: 47.7%
USC: 52.3%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Kansas: 55.6%
USC: 44.4%
USC by 0.7
Showing just how much power ratings are the starting point for Vegas' lines, USC is favored by the bookies as well as the techies (is there much of a difference today?). It's still a close game, with USC having a 1-2 point edge and a 52% chance to win. And if we look at recent games Kansas is the more likely winner (though USC wins the "average" game by 0.7). The 6-game sample is arbitrary and in the case of these teams, the window you use changes the odds a lot. Anything can happen here.
Bottom line: This is a very close game, and anything can happen—that's rare for a 3 vs 6-seed game where the 3-seed normally wins a solid 61% of the time. We had USC pre-tournament, figuring it's a good "upset" to take. We stick with it, there's not much left of our bracket!
Final prediction: USC 68, Kansas 66
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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