All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 3
Record: 23-6
Conference: SEC
vs.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 6
Record: 18-10
Conference: Big 12
Date: Sunday, March 21
Time: 6:10 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TNT
Another clash of near-top-ten teams in the 2nd round.
Arkansas Texas Tech
Power Ratings
Strength: #9 Strength: #13
Pomeroy: #17 Pomeroy: #16
Offense: #36 Offense: #33
Defense: #10 Defense: #20
BPI: #12 BPI: #8
LRMC: #18 LRMC: #17
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #17/#38 Tempo Total/Off: #316/#270
SOS: #74 SOS: #65
Consistency: #263 Consistency: #12
Str x Consistency: #19 Str x Consistency: #6
2nd half season: #7 2nd half season: #16
Last 6 games: #11 Last 6 games: #14
Road Strength: #24 Road Strength: #13
Injury Modifier: #9 Injury Modifier: #17
Disagreement among the power ratings—or at least, between our Strength power rating and the others surveyed. We have Arkansas at #9, Texas Tech at #13, but the others all very slightly prefer Texas Tech. It's damn close.
Both teams have offenses in the 30s and defenses that are quite a bit better. Arkansas runs a fast tempo while Texas Tech slows it down a bit. Another big difference is in consistency; Texas Tech is very stable and predictable, Arkansas less so. This phenomenon is even seen in the last 6 game sample, which is rocky for Arkansas but mostly stable for the Red Raiders.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (13)North Texas+15, (15)Oral Roberts+11, (14)Abilene Christian+13, @(9)Missouri+OT, (7)Florida+11, (2)Alabama+15, (8)LSU+8, =(9)Missouri+6, =Colgate+17
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (9)Missouri-13, @(5)Tennessee-5, @(8)LSU-16, @(2)Alabama-31, @(4)Oklahoma St.-4, =(8)LSU-7
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Arkansas has an excellent record against the field, winning 5 games against SEC teams that made the cut and beating three other small-conference champs while they were at it. They also took their lumps in the SEC, including a stretch where they lost 4 of 5, but they turned their season around and won nine straight, 12 straight in-conference before losing to LSU in the SEC tournament. They didn't lose a game to a non-tournament team, nor did they lose to any team seeded lower than 9.
Moses Moody (17.4ppg) leads four scorers in double figures. The Razorbacks aren't reliant on shooting the 3, and don't shoot it particularly well, but they're above 50% on 2-pointers. On defense they're pretty good across the board. Justin Smith's 29 led the team against Colgate in their back-and-forth 85-68 victory.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (14)Abilene Christian+7, @(8)Oklahoma+2, @(3)Texas+2, @(8)LSU+5, (8)Oklahoma+5, (3)Texas+9, =Utah St.+12
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =(2)Houston-11, (3)Kansas-1, (4)Oklahoma St.-OT, (1)Baylor-8, @(3)West Virginia-1, (3)West Virginia-11, @(3)Kansas-6, @(4)Oklahoma St.-OT, @(1)Baylor-15, =(3)Texas-1
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Texas Tech's chart is like a nice, rolling hill, few if any big surprises win or lose. Not only that, but their résumé speaks of consistency, too: No losses to non-tournament teams; no losses to 5-seed or worse opponents, period; and only a few wins better than an 8-seed. The Red Raiders definitely play within a range. Even with 10 losses, they have lost to a 1-seed twice, a 2-seed, 5 times to 3-seeds, and once to a 4-seed. Even a couple of long covid breaks—due to other programs canceling games—didn't affect their performance.
Texas Tech has four starters at double figures—two just barely—led by Matt McClung at 15.7 ppg. The Red Raiders beat Utah State behind McClung's 16, with four in double figures—each scoring almost exactly his average.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: It's likely that Arkansas will determine who wins this game for the most part. Texas Tech gives you exactly what you expect, but the Razorbacks are a bit up and down. The bad news for Texas Tech is that Arkansas was really up for their last game; the good news is, that doesn't mean as much with an inconsistent team.
The Red Raiders matched their scoring averages almost to the dot in their first round win; Arkansas fell behind by 14, needed a 19-0 run to go ahead, and another 15-2 run to make it a blowout. So which wins, slow and steady or fast and erratic?
With two pretty evenly matched offenses it might come down to defense—in that case Arkansas has the edge. In Pomeroy they rank #10 to Texas Tech's #20. The Red Raiders get a lot of steals but they foul more, and don't rebound as well on defense.
Vegas Line:
Texas Tech by 1
Power rating: spread
Arkansas by 0.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arkansas: 53.1%
Texas Tech: 46.9%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Arkansas: 47.2%
Texas Tech: 52.8%
Arkansas by 0.7
This is the first game we've reviewed where Vegas disagrees with our Strength power rating; they have Texas Tech by 1, we have Arkansas by about 1. As you saw in the power ratings, these teams are very evenly matched. Pomeroy has Texas Tech by 1 and BPI has Texas Tech by 0.7.
The game-comparison system shows how close these teams are, and in recent play the advantage is still 53% but favors Texas Tech. Despite this, the average results is Arkansas by around a point.
Bottom line: A very, very close call. On a coin flip result, we're sticking with our original pick for Arkansas to advance.
Final prediction: Arkansas 71, Texas Tech 70
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments