All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Iowa Hawkeyes
Seed: 2
Record: 22-8
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Oregon Ducks
Seed: 7
Record: 20-6
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Monday, March 22
Time: 12:10 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
Iowa only had to play a 15-seed to make the 2nd round; Oregon didn't have to play anyone. Does that give the Ducks the edge here, or make it worse?
Iowa Oregon
Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #36
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #36
Offense: #2 Offense: #16
Defense: #58 Defense: #76
BPI: #5 BPI: #34
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #30
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #109/#55 Tempo Total/Off: #242/#181
SOS: #16 SOS: #68
Consistency: #232 Consistency: #38
Str x Consistency: #4 Str x Consistency: #38
2nd half season: #5 2nd half season: #46
Last 6 games: #4 Last 6 games: #26
Road Strength: #2 Road Strength: #35
Injury Modifier: #5 (-Nunge) Injury Modifier: #34
Iowa is a solid favorite across the board in the power ratings, and the most telling stats are Pomeroy's offense and defense numbers. It shows both Iowa and Oregon strong on offense but mediocre on defense. So look for both teams to have a field day scoring on their opponent. But in each case Iowa ranks quite a bit higher. They Hawkeyes are almost always the far better offensive team in a game they play, but it's rare that they rank 10+ rungs higher on both offense and defense (their defense is 7th in the Big Ten).
Iowa's tempo is more upbeat than Oregon's, and they're a less-consistent team; sometimes there's a connection between those, but it's also Iowa's heavy employment of 3-point shooting that makes them erratic. Oregon was on their way to having a great "last 6 games" rating until they fell flat in their last game; for the 5 games prior they would rank about #6.
Even though it doesn't affect their ranking, Iowa is about 3 1/2 points better with Jack Nunge available (he's out for the season). It doesn't seem like a lot, but it could be the difference between an Elite Eight and Final Four run. Of course, stuck in Gonzaga's region it probably makes little difference as they lost to the Zags with Nunge in the lineup.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (8)North Carolina+13, (4)Purdue+15, @(10)Rutgers+2, @(10)Maryland+22, (11)Michigan St.+6, (10)Rutgers+13, @(11)Michigan St.+30, @(9)Wisconsin+15, @(2)Ohio St.+16, (9)Wisconsin+4, =(9)Wisconsin+5, =(15)Grand Canyon+12
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Gonzaga-11, @(1)Illinois-5, (2)Ohio St.-4, @(1)Michigan-22, =(1)Illinois-11
- Other losses (3): @Minnesota-OT, Indiana-12, @Indiana-2
Overview: Iowa finished a stellar 11-5 against the tournament field, and four of those losses were to 1-seeds Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois(twice), as well as 2-seed Ohio State. Their only other losses were to Minnesota in overtime, Indiana by 2 on the road, and an outlier home loss to Indiana by 12. That's still pretty amazing.
Iowa also avoided the dreaded February Collapse that two recent Hawkeye teams fell victim to. The last times Iowa was in the Pomeroy top 5 they collapsed. In 2014 they peaked at #4 and lost 9 of their next 13 games and fell to #22. Similarly in 2016 they hit #2 and lost 7 of their next 10, dropping to #23. It looked like it might happen this year too, as the #3 Hawkeyes lost 4 of 5 mid-season, but they pulled out of it and won 8 of their last 10 instead.
Iowa is of course led by 6-11 senior center Luka Garza's 23.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. His inside play is complemented by Iowa's solid three-point shooting (38.6%, 13th in the nation). Garza shoots 40.7% himself, though not as often as Iowa's guards. The Hawkeye defense isn't nearly as good as their offense; on D Iowa allows a lot of three-point shots and rarely gets takeaways. Their defense has improved over the season however.
Garza had 24 points against Grand Canyon, making 4 of 5 from 3-point land as the Hawkeyes handled the Antelopes 86-74.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (14)Eastern Washington+17, (5)Colorado+4, (11)UCLA+8, @(12)Oregon St.+13
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(9)Missouri-8, @(5)Colorado-7, (12)Oregon St.-11, @(6)USC-14, =(12)Oregon St.-11
- Other losses (1): Washington St.-3
Overview: Oregon lost to 9-seed Missouri early but won 8 straight after that, mostly over cupcakes though that included 14-seed Eastern Washington. After losing to Colorado and beating Utah on January 9, they had Covid issues, not playing again for two weeks; that was a bad loss to Oregon State, after which they had another 2 weeks off before losing to 14-13 Washington State. They barely beat lowly 5-21 Washington, but seemed to recover after that, winning 5 straight in all before the USC loss, after which they played their very best in winning 6 straight. Then they played terribly in their last game, losing to Oregon State. If not for that last dud, Oregon might look like a team that's going places.
Oregon has five scorers in double figures, led by 6-6 senior guard Chris Duarte and 6-6 senior forward Eugene Omoruyi, both of whom average 16.7 points per game. The Ducks shoot the ball well and pretty much do everything right on offense; they don't defend nearly as well.
Oregon had the strangest "win" in NCAA tournament history on Saturday, advancing to the Round of 32 because VCU couldn't compete due to positive Covid tests. The game was declared a No Contest, like it was a boxing match, except that usually happens after the fight.
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Game Analysis: This is a very interesting case. We've had the "play-in" games for a decade now (the 16-seed play-in even before that) but this is something new. In the play-in games, lower seeds compete to take on a higher seed. In this case, it's the higher seed that "played-in" while the lower seed awaited them. Even when the tournament had 40 or 48 teams, the teams playing in were the lower seeds and the higher (better) seeded team awaited them.
We've seen that play-in teams get a lot of upsets; does a play in team that's a higher seed do even better in a game like this? If the phenomenon (play-in 11-seeds have won 7 of 15 games against 6-seeds) is because having a win "under your belt" is a good thing, then is Iowa situated to do even better than expected against Oregon?
The other theory is that Oregon is now better rested, and since Iowa played a game on Saturday they're a bit tired. Oregon won't have played in 10 days compared to Iowa's 2. Iowa's game was pretty frantic, like a run-and-gun pickup game, so there may be some truth to this. But there's the counterargument that Oregon could be "rusty" going in.
Oregon's last game wasn't a great performance, and they've probably been eager to get that one out of their system. Instead of being able to do that against a 10-seed, they have to try against a 2-seed. Like a prizefighter who has suffered a bad defeat might want a warm-up opponent before taking on the #1 contender, Oregon could have gotten their confidence back against VCU; instead they'll have to be ready for Iowa. So I don't see this as a great thing for Oregon—other than the fact that they advanced, of course. It's better to have a guaranteed advancement than to worry about what the layoff will do for you, but for this game I think a win over VCU would have put them in a better position to win this game.
Iowa and Oregon are both offense loaded and defense deficient teams. The problem for Oregon is that Iowa is better at both tasks. This makes Oregon look a lot like Iowa except not as good, and that's not a good formula for an upset—you want to be different than the team you're playing in a lot of ways. Their tempo can do that, but otherwise their style isn't far off. They shoot the three well, but not as well as Iowa. They don't turn the ball over often, but Iowa turns it over less. Their defense doesn't foul a lot, but Iowa's D fouls less. And so on.
One arena where Oregon is different is height. Iowa is not a tall team except at center; Oregon is pretty much 6-6 across the board most of the time. This smaller lineup might fluster Iowa's guard and their 3-point shooting; they key then is to make sure Garza doesn't score 30 points. They had a 6-11 center early in the year but he's gone, and his 6-11 replacement plays just a few minutes a game. They'll have to hope the all 6-6 lineup works for them in this situation. It might prove to be the answer, or fail spectacularly.
Vegas Line:
Iowa by 5
Power rating: spread
Iowa by 7.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Iowa: 69.1%
Oregon: 30.9%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Iowa: 55.6%
Oregon: 44.4%
Iowa by 7.6
Vegas might be thinking Oregon's time off is a good thing, so their line is almost three points below our estimate from the Strength power rating. Pomeroy gives Iowa a 7 point advantage, the BPI a whopping 10.
7-seeds normally have a 30% chance for the upset, and that's almost exactly what our game-comparison system levies. Over the last 6 games it narrows a lot but the average spread remains the same; that's because the last 6 games includes two huge Iowa wins and one dismal Oregon outing. Iowa's last 4 games have been good, not great; Oregon played 5 great games before a dismal dud at the end.
Bottom line: I think Oregon needed to wipe the stench of that last flop against Oregon State out of their system before being ready to take on a bigger challege. With two great offenses and bad defenses clashing, the one with the better in both areas should win.
Final prediction: Iowa 82, Oregon 74
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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