All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Houston Cougars
Seed: 2
Record: 25-3
Conference: American
vs.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Seed: 10
Record: 16-11
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Sunday, March 21
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
Rutgers upset Clemson (by seed, not by Vegas odds) but now tackles a much more difficult foe.
Houston Rutgers
Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #33
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #34
Offense: #6 Offense: #74
Defense: #13 Defense: #14
BPI: #3 BPI: #43
LRMC: #5 LRMC: #45
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #327/#319 Tempo Total/Off: #213/#150
SOS: #106 SOS: #3
Consistency: #252 Consistency: #227
Str x Consistency: #5 Str x Consistency: #36
2nd half season: #3 2nd half season: #32
Last 6 games: #2 Last 6 games: #53
Road Strength: #34 Road Strength: #57
Injury Modifier: #4 Injury Modifier: #29
Extraordinary agreement, for once, between our Strength power rating and Ken Pomeroy's system: we both place Houston #5, and Rutgers #33 or #34. The BPI and pre-tourney LRMC both have a wider spread between the teams. Bottom line, Rutgers would have to pull off a true upset to win this game.
The teams' defenses are roughly the same efficiency, but that's where the similarity ends; Houston has a much better offense, plays at a much slower tempo, had a much easier schedule (#106 to Rutgers #3) and have played much better down the stretch. Ok, there's one more similarity: Consistency, where both are low-to-middling
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(6)Texas Tech+11, (11)Wichita St.+7, =(15)Cleveland St.+31
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Wichita St.-5
- Other losses (2): @Tulsa-1, @East Carolina-9
Overview: All year Houston has been the interloper in the top 25, the team from a non-major conference who isn't Gonzaga and therefore isn't legit. The Cougars have had to prove themselves time and time again that their schedule doesn't mean everything. And of course when they stumbled against really bad teams like Tulsa and East Carolina, those doubts grew. But with analytics on their side, they hovered in the top ten most of the year in the AP poll, and finally made believers of the selection committee, nabbing a 2-seed.
Quentin Grimes leads the Cougars with 18.0 points per game, adding 6 rebounds. And rebounding is a big reason why Houston offense works despite ranking only #104 in effective field goal percentage; the Cougars are #2 in offensive rebounding, meaning they get a lot of 2nd chances, which is how they can rank #8 in offensive efficiency per Pomeroy. On defense, they're top 10 against both 2s and 3s, and they get a lot of blocks and steals, those these stats are unadjusted for competition.
Houston blitzed Cleveland State 87-56 in round 1, with Grimes scoring his typical 18 to lead the team.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (11)Syracuse+10, @(10)Maryland+14, (1)Illinois+3, (4)Purdue+5, (11)Michigan St.+30, =(7)Clemson+4
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @(2)Ohio St.-12, (2)Iowa-2, @(11)Michigan St.-23, (2)Ohio St.-11, (9)Wisconsin-6, @(2)Iowa-13, @(1)Michigan-7, (10)Maryland-9, =(1)Illinois-22
- Other losses (2): @Penn St.-8, @Nebraska-21
Overview: Much like Clemson, Rutgers started the year with a bang, going 7-1 with wins over Syracuse, Maryland, 1-seed Illinois and 4-seed Purdue. But then, also like Clemson, they hit a wall—and they can't blame Covid protocols. They can, however, blame playing in the crazy tough Big Ten, at least for the losses to Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. They also lost to Penn State though, and 3 of the 5 losses were at home. From there the Scarlet Knights were up and down, scoring a 67-37 win over Michigan State but also losing to Nebraska 72-51.
Rutgers doesn't shoot the ball well, particularly from behind the arc or from the free throw line, which explains a lot of their offensive woes. They are led by Ron Harper Jr., a big 6-6 guard who averages 15.4 points per game. Center Myles Johnson grabs 8.7 boards per game.
The Scarlet Knights upset 7-seed Clemson—though they were actually the favorite—with three players scoring 13 points each including backup Caleb McConnell who also grabbed 10 rebounds in the 64-60 win.
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Game Analysis: Rutgers is a 10-seed and beat 7-seed Clemson, but they were a very popular upset pick and were actually favored by Vegas. Beating 2-seed Houston, though, would constitute a real upset. The power ratings have the two teams nowhere near each other.
That hasn't stopped Houston from losing to some fairly pedestrian opponents. 11-12 Tulsa and 8-11 East Carolina both beat the Cougars. So if Rutgers catches them on the rights day, a Scarlet Knight victory is very likely. But Houston only played that poorly for 3 out of 28 games, so the odds of Sunday being one of those days is low. It's been a while, so maybe they're due?
Vegas Line:
Houston by 8 1/2
Power rating: spread
Houston by 8.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 72.0%
Rutgers: 28.0%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Houston: 80.6%
Rutgers: 19.4%
Houston by 16.4
Almost exact agreement from Strength and Vegas here, and our game-comparison system gives Houston a 72% chance to win which is a ways above the historical 64% odds for a 2-seed to beat a 10-seed (beating a 7-seed comes in at 70%, go figure).
Houston's been pretty dominant the last 6 games, yielding an average spread of over 16 points.
Bottom line: Houston's been playing very, very well. They might be "due" for a loss but that's like predicting earthquakes. We think they advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
Final prediction: Houston 78, Rutgers 60
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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