All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
UCLA Bruins
Seed: 11
Record: 19-9
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Seed: 14
Record: 24-4
Conference: Southland
Date: Monday, March 22
Time: 5:15 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
The 11-seed play-in team upsets happened once this time around as UCLA advanced; they're meet Abilene Christian, one of the many many Cinderellas this year.
UCLA Abilene Christian
Power Ratings
Strength: #39 Strength: #109
Pomeroy: #33 Pomeroy: #80
Offense: #12 Offense: #165
Defense: #82 Defense: #24
BPI: #36 BPI: #75
LRMC: #47 LRMC: #54
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #337/#308 Tempo Total/Off: #101/#109
SOS: #43 SOS: #338
Consistency: #53 Consistency: #340
Str x Consistency: #32 Str x Consistency: #147
2nd half season: #47 2nd half season: #72
Last 6 games: #38 Last 6 games: #61
Road Strength: #67 Road Strength: #174
Injury Modifier: #36 Injury Modifier: #109
The power ratings have UCLA ahead across the board but one stands out: the pre-tourney rankings in the LRMC, where only 5 spots separate #47 UCLA and #54 Abilene Christian. Another stat stands out: ACU's #24 defense, which will be taking on UCLA's #12 offense. UCLA's D isn't good but ACU's offense is worse.
UCLA runs a faster tempo; is much more consistent in performance, and has played the far tougher schedule. ACU's recent play, which includes their big Texas win, puts them even closer to Bruin territory.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (5)Colorado+3, (12)Oregon St.+5, (11)Michigan St.+OT, =BYU+11
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(6)San Diego St.-15, @(2)Ohio St.-7, @(6)USC-18, @(5)Colorado-9, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
- Other losses (2): @Stanford-OT, @Washington St.-8
Overview: Like many tournament teams, it seems, UCLA started their season laying an egg or two. They lost to 6-seed San Diego State 73-58 in the opener, then needed three overtimes to beat Pepperdine. But they began playing really well after that, winning 10 of their next 11, the sole loss to Ohio State, and a win over 5-seed Colorado. Then they hit a rough patch, losing 3 of 4; won four straight; lost four straight, and stumbled into the tournament where they beat the Spartans in overtime.
What do we make of their recent 4-loss skid? Not much. They fell to 5-seed Colorado on the road, 7-seed Oregon on the road, 6-seed USC by a point, and 12-seed and eventual Pac-12 champ Oregon State in overtime. None of those were bad games, they just weren't great; neither was their performance vs. Michigan State, even though that was a win.
The Bruins leading scorer is Johnny Juzang at 14.0 points per game; #2 was Chris Smith but he was lost early in the season with a torn ACL. UCLA shoots the 3 pretty well but they shoot them at a low rate. Across the board their offense looks good on paper while the defense doesn't, and this is reflected in their results. They do rebound well on both sides of the court, though.
Juzang scored 23 while Jaime Jaquez Jr dumped in 27 to lead the Bruins to their overtime victory vs. Michigan State; Juzang had 27 against BYU in their first-round win vs. BYU.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(3)Texas+1
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(6)Texas Tech-7, @(3)Arkansas-13
- Other losses (2): @Sam Houston St.-7, @Central Arkansas-2
Overview: Abilene Christian had a year of up and down performances, to say the least, but they ended on a high note for sure. Their first game was probably their 2nd best as they beat East Tennessee State 70-47 and won the #BeachBubble tournament in Florida. Their 4th game was a 30-point win over Howard Payne that apparently doesn't go down well with our power rating. Neither did their 82-44 win over Dallas Christian. Those teams are both non-Div-I and very, very bad. They lost games with Texas Tech and Arkansas during that span, too, by far the best teams they faced. and following a loss to Sam Houston State they went on an 8-game winning streak followed by a 4-game run to capture the Southland title. They did it in style, beating Lamar 93-71 and Nicholls State 79-45, a performance they wish they could bottle up and apply to their first round game.
The Wildcats have three starters in double figures led by 7-0 center Kolton Kohl with 12.3 points per game. 10 players average 10 minutes or more and so many of them are short, ACU ranks as the #339 team in height despite having a 7-footer (their point guard is 5-7, too). On defense the Wildcats are amazing: #1 in turnovers (#4 in steals), #12 in opponents' field goal %—it's no wonder they rank 30th in Pomeroy. Of course those other rankings are due to their low level of competition, but it shows they can get the job done.
The Wildcats upset Texas in a low-scoring game where Joe Pleasant and Coryon Mason both had 11 points.
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Game Analysis: We will see 5-11 Tyger Campbell at times against 5-7 Damien Daniels. We will also see 7-0 Kolton Kohl and UCLA's tallest players are 6-9. Kohl wasn't a big difference maker against Texas with 6 points and 5 rebounds but he might be here. Other than interior height UCLA has the height advantage with three 6-6 players normally on the court.
It will be interesting to see how many steals Abilene Christian gets; they're #2 in the country in steals but that's against the #340 schedule. They did have 11 against Texas but UCLA is much better at taking care of the ball. UCLA has to guard the three-point line better than they've been doing as the Wildcats shoot 37%.
Vegas Line:
UCLA by 4.5
Power rating: spread
UCLA by 8.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
UCLA: 67.9%
Abilene Christian: 32.1%
Recent game performance (last 6):
UCLA: 61.1%
Abilene Christian: 38.9%
UCLA by 3.3
Vegas has a really diminished opinion of UCLA, or a higher opinion of Abilene Christian than we do. Probably referencing Pomeroy (5 points) on this one, or BPI (3.6).
Bottom line: Abilene upset a 3-seed so an upset of an 11-seed is clearly in play. They played a great game against Texas but we think beating Michigan State then beating BYU by 10 is better than beating Texas by 1.
Final prediction: UCLA 70, Abilene Christian 60
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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