All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 1
Record: 20-4
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Louisiana State Tigers
Seed: 8
Record: 18-9
Conference: SEC
Date: Monday, March 22
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianaoplis, IN
Channel: CBS
Can Michigan avoid the fate of Illinois and Ohio State and advance to the Sweet Sixteen?
Michigan LSU
Power Ratings
Strength: #6 Strength: #19
Pomeroy: #4 Pomeroy: #21
Offense: #7 Offense: #5
Defense: #7 Defense: #121
BPI: #6 BPI: #19
LRMC: #8 LRMC: #24
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #260/#178 Tempo Total/Off: #78/#47
SOS: #11 SOS: #38
Consistency: #328 Consistency: #318
Str x Consistency: #7 Str x Consistency: #38
2nd half season: #4 2nd half season: #16
Last 6 games: #17 Last 6 games: #8
Road Strength: #5 Road Strength: #43
Injury Modifier: #55 (-Livers) Injury Modifier: #19
When LSU has the ball it's like two top ten teams playing; the Tigers #5 offense faces Michigan's #7 defense. The mismatch is on the other end where a top ten offense faces a defense not in the top 100. LSU is a 2-seed when they have the ball, a 13-seed on defense.
Of course, 13-seeds and the like are going pretty well in the tournament so far. Some things to note: both teams' inconsistency means anything can happen; and LSU's recent play is top ten caliber while the Wolverines have been slipping, and if they don't have Livers back for the game they could be in trouble.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): @(10)Maryland+11, (9)Wisconsin+23, (10)Maryland+24, @(4)Purdue+17, @(9)Wisconsin+8, (10)Rutgers+7, @(2)Ohio St.+5, (2)Iowa+22, (11)Michigan St.+19, =(10)Maryland+13, =(16)Texas Southern+16
- Losses to tournament teams (3): (1)Illinois-23, @(11)Michigan St.-6, =(2)Ohio St.-1
- Other losses (1): @Minnesota-18
Overview: Michigan's season is full of tremendous wins and a few inexplicably bad losses. Juwan Howard's team raced to 11-0 and became the first team ever to beat three ranked teams in a row by 19 points or more; those were 10-seed Maryland, 9-seed Wisconsin, and in-between, Minnesota, who was ranked at the time. Immediately following the Wisconsin win they played Minnesota again and lost 75-57, a 43 point turnaround from the meeting at Ann Arbor. But the Wolverines picked up right where they'd left off, beating Maryland, 4-seed Purdue, Wisconsin, 2-seed Ohio State, and 2-seed Iowa over a 7-game stretch.
Then they faced 1-seed Illinois, who was missing leading scorer Ayo Dosunmu...and got blown away, 76-53, at home. They clubbed Michigan State, but then lost to the Spartans in Lansing. They blasted Maryland in the Big Ten tournament but fell to Ohio State in a battle. So it looks like Michigan is a national title caliber team, for sure—they just have to go six games without hitting one of their freakish underperformances.
The Wolverines are led by freshman center Hunter Dickinson's 14.2 points and 7.6 rebounds; he did a great job defending against Iowa's Luka Garza in that win. On offense Michigan shoots the three at a 38.7% clip but often opts for the 2 where they are good, too. They make 78% of their free throws and rarely turn the ball over. Their defense is just as strong as their offense; they are lockdown on 2-pointers, making opponents shoot the three if they can, and rebound the misses. They don't force turnovers but do block quite a few shots.
Isaiah Livers is their #2 scorer at 13.1 ppg and adds 6.0 rebounds and might miss the whole tournament. He's important for their 3-point shooting (43%) in particular.
Guard Mike Smith led the Wolverines against Texas Southern with 18 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (3)Arkansas+16, (5)Tennessee+13, @(9)Missouri+6, =(3)Arkansas+7, =(9)St. Bonaventure+15
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(7)Florida-4, (2)Alabama-30, (6)Texas Tech-5, @(2)Alabama-18, @(3)Arkansas-8, =(2)Alabama-1
- Other losses (3): @Saint Louis-4, @Kentucky-13, @Georgia-13
Overview: Louisiana State started off rough, struggling with SIU Edwardsville and losing to St. Louis but played two of their best games against SE Louisiana and Louisiana Tech, winning 96-43 and 86-55 before coach Will Wade tested positive for Covid, making the rest of the pre-conference season disjointed. They barely beat Nicholls State on their return but won 5 of their first 6 in SEC competition. They lost four of their next five with no Covid excuse, including a 105-75 home loss to Alabama. Three big wins were followed by two more losses, but their last five games were all solid, up to and including the 1-point loss to Alabama in the SEC title game.
Cameron Thomas leads one of the nation's best offenses, scoring 22.6 points a game; Trendon Watford adds 16.7 points and 7.4 rebounds while Ja'Vonte Smart averages 15.9. The Tigers shoot the ball well, rebound well, and rarely turn it over; that, and a fast pace adds up to a lot of points. It also adds up to a lot of points for their opponents, especially due to their poor defensive rebounding.
LSU's impressive win over St. Bonaventure was led by a 27-point performance by Thomas, including making 11 of 13 free throws.
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Game Analysis: Michigan has had two games without Isaiah Livers now; how have they done?
Their loss to Ohio State wasn't bad as losses go; despite their early exit, losing to the Buckeyes by a point means you played a great game. Their win over Texas Southern wasn't bad but wasn't great either. So the jury's still out on how they've been affected.
Meanwhile LSU has carried on its string of great games. That includes the 1-point loss to Alabama which, like Michigan's loss to Ohio State, means they played a great game. Their first round game was also pretty stellar, and they handled 9-seed St. Bonaventure as easily as Michigan handled 16-seed Texas Southern.
LSU's main problem is clearly their defense, but that hasn't stopped them from churning out great games recently. And as good as Michigan is, they've had ups and downs lately, mostly down. And now they're without one of their leaders.
Michigan's offense should be able to score at will on LSU's defense so they won't have to worry much about the battle on the other end. That's the logic of the situation. But both teams are so inconsistent that the logic might not apply.
Vegas Line:
Michigan by 5 1/2
Power rating: spread
Michigan by 5.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Michigan: 61.7%
LSU: 38.3%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Michigan: 25.0%
LSU: 75.0%
LSU by 6
8-seeds upset 1-seeds at a clip of 19% historically; we give LSU roughly double that chance along with a 5-point spread for the Wolverines; Vegas agrees with the margin basically. When we look at recent games it's all LSU; they've been fantastic while Michigan has been erratic to the downside.
Bottom line: We had Michigan losing in this round, but to St. Bonaventure, not LSU. LSU advanced and after looking them over we think they can get the job done, too. The tournament just keeps getting wilder.
Final prediction: LSU 79, Michigan 74
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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