All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 1
Record: 24-6
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Seed: 8
Record: 25-4
Conference: Missouri Valley
Date: Sunday, March 21
Time: 12:10 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
In the 2nd round 1-seed Illinois faces a team considered to be in the top ten in the nation by some.
Illinois Loyola Chicago
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #29
Pomeroy: #2 Pomeroy: #8
Offense: #8 Offense: #37
Defense: #4 Defense: #3
BPI: #4 BPI: #17
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #10
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #80/#114 Tempo Total/Off: #342/#300
SOS: #5 SOS: #171
Consistency: #305 Consistency: #320
Str x Consistency: #3 Str x Consistency: #47
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #17
Last 6 games: #1 Last 6 games: #39
Road Strength: #3 Road Strength: #11
Injury Modifier: #2 Injury Modifier: #37
Illinois is up to #2 in Pomeroy after their 1st rounds win, while Loyola Chicago is up to #8, making this certainly the first top ten clash we'll see in the tournament...normally that's in the Sweet Sixteen or even the Elite Eight. Our Strength power rating agrees with Illinois' placement but not Loyola's, putting the Ramblers a more 8-seed-appropriate #29; the BPI has them at a loftier #17 while the LRMC (pre-season) also has them in the top ten. Whatever the truth, it's clear they're not a normal 8-seed and the result is a (possible) top ten team faces a top seed in round 2. That's the result of a good team playing an easier schedule (note their SOS of 171); by résumé alone they could have been an 11-seed but by some of their rankings they are equal to a 3-seed.
Both teams are pretty inconsistent, so if they are really close in quality about anything can happen. Loyola shows a better Strength for the 2nd half of the season but not for the last 6 games. They've played great in their last 4 outings, though, and would rank #12 in Strength over that survey period. So in that respect we agree: they team that's facing Illinois on Sunday really is a borderline top 10 team.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (13)Ohio+2, (4)Purdue+8, (2)Iowa+5, (9)Wisconsin+15, @(9)Wisconsin+5, @(1)Michigan+23, @(2)Ohio St.+5, =(10)Rutgers+22, =(2)Iowa+11, =(2)Ohio St.+OT, =(16) Drexel+29
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(1)Baylor-13, @(9)Missouri-3, @(10)Rutgers-3, (10)Maryland-3, (2)Ohio St.-6, @(11)Michigan St.-9
- Other losses (0): None.
Overview: Illinois somehow managed to sneak up on the basketball world; when they were 5-3 or 9-5 no one thought they were destined to be a 1-seed. Beating North Carolina A&T 122-60 and Chicago State 97-38 are impressive, but when you follow up with a 2 point win over Ohio and lose three of your next five games, you're written off as a national title contender. But one of those losses was to Baylor, the other two to tournament teams, and Ohio even made the field. The Illini eventually went on an 11-1 run in the nation's toughest conference, including a 23-point win over Michigan while their own leading scorer was out of the game, as well as a Big Ten tournament title.
Ayo Dosunmu (20.7 ppg) is the leading scorer in question, and with 7 foot, 285 lb center Kofi Cockburn (pronounced Co-burn thank you) they make a great 1-2, inside-outside punch. Cockburn averages 17.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Similar to the Devon Dotson-Udoka Azubuike combo that would have made Kansas a favorite last year, Illinois is the pick of many this year.
Their performance against Drexel was in line with their other great recent games as they won 78-49 behind Cockburns's 18 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (13)North Texas+8, @(11)Drake+27, =(11)Drake+10, =(8)Georgia Tech+11
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(9)Wisconsin-14, @(11)Drake-OT
- Other losses (2): =Richmond-2, @Indiana St.-5
Overview: Loyola Chicago really does have a disparate chart, with early games of a similar low quality before they reach some highs starting in the middle of the season. They didn't play a very tough schedule, boasting only a couple wins over Drake to their name really, and a loss to Wisconsin; Drake is the only team to beat them since early January. The Ramblers' low rank over the last 6 games is easily explainable: they played three of their worse games following the Drake loss. Those were all wins, however, and their MVC tournament run contained three overachieving performances.
Center Cameron Krutwig is by far the Ramblers' leading scorer at 15.0 ppg, and a half-dozen others average 7 or 8 points. When you play as slow as the Ramblers there aren't a lot of points to go around. He also leads the team in rebounds (6.7), blocks (1.2) and even assists (3.0).
Lucas Williamson led the Ramblers with 18 points on 8 of 13 shooting in their first-round win over Georgia Tech.
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Game Analysis: Loyola Chicago has the #3 defense in the country according to Pomeroy (they were #1 going into the tournament) which makes them a threat to anyone. Illinois however counters with the #4 defense, as well as a top ten offense.
This probably comes down to individual players. Does Loyola have good players? Yes. Do they have anyone on the level of Ayo Dosunmu or Kofi Cockburn? Not even close. Krutwig is good but he's shorter and smaller than Cockburn, and none of Loyola's guards are projected 1st-round draft picks like Dosunmu. You can point to Oral Roberts beating Ohio State with "inferior" players but Oral Roberts has the nation's leading scorer, and that's nothing to sneeze at. Illinois just out-athletes the Ramblers.
The last four games for Loyola Chicago have been incredible: all great performances and very consistent. Over those games they're playing at the level of Illinois; I have no doubt we'll see that level of play again Sunday, and that means we could have an upset even if Illinois plays at their average level. But Illinois has raised their game to an even higher level recently and I think we'll see that again too.
Vegas Line:
Illinois by 7
Power rating: spread
Illinois by 9.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Illinois: 70.7%
Loyola Chicago: 29.3%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Illinois: 88.9%
Loyola Chicago: 11.1%
Illinois by 18.0
Vegas sees this game as a bit closer than our Strength power rating, which is usually within a point or so of the line. The reason is that Pomeroy projects a 4 point margin and the BPI has a 6.3 point margin. In any case Illinois is a favorite, but hardly the kind of favorite a 1-seed normally is against an 8-seed, and that's because Loyola Chicago is really good or great, depending on who you ask. 8-seeds beat 1-seeds at a historical 19% clip and we give Loyola a 29% chance—and we rank the Ramblers much lower than Kenpom or BPI. Pomeroy gives the Ramblers a 36% chance of winning. BPI strangely only gives them a 25% chance though.
Over the last 6 games Illinois has been tremendous, so it's no surprise they win 89% of those comparisons, particularly because Loyola had two "dud" wins weeks ago. If we close the window to four games we get a better comparison of how the teams are playing right now; Illinois wins 75% with an 8.7 point margin.
Bottom line: Loyola Chicago is a very good team, probably far better than their 8-seed indicates. They're playing great lately, but Illinois is playing insane right now.
Final prediction: Illinois 72, Loyola Chicago 63
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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