All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 27-0
Conference: West Coast
vs.
Oklahoma Sooners
Seed: 8
Record: 16-10
Conference: Big 12
Date: Monday, March 22
Time: 2:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
Loyola Chicago knocked off Illinois, will Oklahoma do the same to another tournament favorite?
Gonzaga Oklahoma
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #32
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #41
Offense: #1 Offense: #34
Defense: #7 Defense: #48
BPI: #1 BPI: #30
LRMC: #1 LRMC: #29
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #4/#2 Tempo Total/Off: #222/#174
SOS: #97 SOS: #47
Consistency: #93 Consistency: #160
Str x Consistency: #1 Str x Consistency: #33
2nd half season: #1 2nd half season: #43
Last 6 games: #3 Last 6 games: #58
Road Strength: #1 Road Strength: #63
Injury Modifier: #1 Injury Modifier: #32
Another mismatch on paper for Gonaza, who has far and away the better offense and defense. They also run one of the fastest tempos in college basketball while Oklahoma want to keep things at a reasonable pace; can they?
In recent play Gonzaga's numbers barely change but the Sooners fall pretty dramatically. They recovered somewhat with their last game, which is why their injury modifier, despite the loss of their #2 scorer, shows no change.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(3)Kansas+12, =(3)West Virginia+5, =(2)Iowa+11, =(4)Virginia+23, (6)BYU+17, @(6)BYU+11, =(6)BYU+10, =(16)Norfolk St.+43
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Gonzaga's season has been the same thing over and over...win, win, and win again. They beat 3-seed Kansas in the opener, 102-90, and edged 4-seed West Virginia 87-82 a week later in what would be their closest game of the season. They handled 2-seed Iowa and 4-seed Virginia more easily, 99-88 and 98-75 respectively. The WCC schedule was just as easy; they picked up three wins over 6-seed BYU, the last of which was a good fight and gave them the WCC crown.
The Zags appeared to be best in a stretch from mid-January to mid-February when they didn't play a game that wasn't stellar. Their "stumble" at the end consists of an 89-75 home win over mediocre Santa Clara and an 86-69 home win over not-great Loyola Marymount. After 22 straight wins can you expect a team to be motivated all the time? In the WCC tournament they beat Saint Mary's 78-55 and were tested by BYU who held an early 14 point lead and later a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes left. The Zags quickly took the lead and pulled away down the stretch, a good gut check for the team.
Gonzaga is lead by 6-7 senior Corey Kispert's 19.2 points; 6-10 Drew Timme's 18.7 points and 7.1 rebounds; and freshman point guard Jalen Suggs' 14.3 points and 4.5 assists. Suggs and Kispert are both potential lottery picks in the draft, with Timme and forward Joel Ayayi (11.8 points, 7.0 rebounds) going somewhere in the first two rounds. This is a loaded team. They're #1 in effective field goal percentage, #1 on 2-point percentage (64%), and play great defense despite running such a fast pace.
The Bulldogs had no trouble with 16-seed Norfolk State, beating them 98-55; Kispert had 23 points.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (15)Oral Roberts+14, (3)West Virginia+4, (3)Kansas+7, @(3)Texas+1, (2)Alabama+5, @(3)West Virginia+OT, =Oklahoma+4
- Losses to tournament teams (8): (6)Texas Tech-2, @(1)Baylor-15, @(3)Kansas-4, @(6)Texas Tech-5, (4)Oklahoma St.-OT, @(4)Oklahoma St.-4, (3)Texas-4, =(3)Kansas-7
- Other losses (2): @Xavier-22, @Kansas St.-5
Overview: Oklahoma was, for a moment, the darling of the college basketball world. They had defeated, in quick succession, West Virginia, Kansas, Texas, and Alabama—the first team to have four top ten wins in a month since 1974 (NC State). Weeks later they were 14-5 with a gaudy résumé and looked like a contender for a 2 or 3 seed. Then the bottom dropped out; the Sooners lost 4 of their next five and slid to an 8-seed. Sounds harsh, but three of their last 4 wins are over 2-22 Iowa State.
Austin Reeves leads the team with 17.7 points per game and is also top rebounder with 5.7 and leading assist man with 4.7. Let's just say he does it all, even as a 6-5 guard. As a team the Sooners don't shoot that well but they rarely turn it over.
Oklahoma's 2nd leading scorer is De'Vion Harmon (12.9 ppg); he just tested positive for Covid and is out for at least the first two rounds. The Sooners won their first game without him and played an above average game, too, in beating the Tigers 72-86. Austin Reeves led with 23 points.
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Game Analysis: Naturally Gonzaga is the favorite here. A couple of main areas of concern for Oklahoma are, on offense, rebounding as they are so-so while the Zags' D rebounds well; and on defense, guarding the shot. Gonzaga is the #1 shooting team in the nation while Oklahoma is #117 in effective field goal% allowed per Pomeroy.
Oklahoma's best bet is probably to really slow the game down if that's possible. They need to keep things under control and not let the Bulldogs get any quick runs like they did against Norfolk State (three runs where they outscored Norfolk by 14 or more).
So far missing De'Vion Harmon hasn't hurt the Sooners as they played well without him, but losing your #2 scorer can't make beating the #1 team any easier.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 14 1/2
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 13.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 85.0%
Oklahoma: 15.0%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Gonzaga: 94.4%
Oklahoma: 5.6%
Gonzaga by 15.5
8-seed Oklahoma has a 15% chance by our numbers to upset the Zags; history says an 8-seed has a 19% chance, so we think this is a less likely upset. Especially when you look at Oklahoma's dismal recent play. That includes 4 losses of course, so it probably isn't fair as they look like they at least snapped back against Missouri. Using only their most recent game, the Zags are a 21 point favorite, so Oklahoma would probably rather not go with that.
Bottom line: Both teams upped their game in the first round, probably not good news for Oklahoma.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 92, Oklahoma 74
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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