All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Oklahoma Sooners
Seed: 8
Record: 15-10
Conference: Big 12
vs.
Missouri Tigers
Seed: 9
Record: 16-9
Conference: SEC
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 7:25 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TNT
Two slumping teams meet to see who is playing worse at the moment. Sorry but it's the truth.
Oklahoma Missouri
Power Ratings
Strength: #35 Strength: #45
Pomeroy: #39 Pomeroy: #51
Offense: #36 Offense: #51
Defense: #53 Defense: #58
BPI: #31 BPI: #50
LRMC: #29 LRMC: #49
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #222/#174 Tempo Total/Off: #160/#121
SOS: #47 SOS: #12
Consistency: #160 Consistency: #222
Str x Consistency: #33 Str x Consistency: #46
2nd half season: #44 2nd half season: #56
Last 6 games: #88 Last 6 games: #52
Road Strength: #63 Road Strength: #38
Injury Modifier: #33 Injury Modifier: #46
8 vs. 9 matchups are supposed to be close and this one is no exception. Oklahoma ranks from #29 to #39 in the surveyed power ratings while Missouri stands between #45 and #51. They both have good, not great, offensive and defensive efficiency, with an advantage to Oklahoma when they have the ball. No real clash of tempo, and both teams have played a tough schedule—surprisingly, maybe, Missouri's is quite a big tougher. We'll take a look at both of their slates in a bit.
Neither team has done itself any favors in the 2nd half of the season, both dropping about 10 rungs in our Strength power rating. And for the last 6 games Oklahoma has been particularly attrocious. This makes sense as Oklahoma lost 4 of their last 5 and Missouri 6 of their last 9.
Oklahoma has another issue—a positive test from a key player.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (15)Oral Roberts+14, (3)West Virginia+4, (3)Kansas+7, @(3)Texas+1, (2)Alabama+5, @(3)West Virginia+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (8): (6)Texas Tech-2, @(1)Baylor-15, @(3)Kansas-4, @(6)Texas Tech-5, (4)Oklahoma St.-OT, @(4)Oklahoma St.-4, (3)Texas-4, =(3)Kansas-7
- Other losses (2): @Xavier-22, @Kansas St.-5
Overview: Oklahoma was, for a moment, the darling of the college basketball world. They had defeated, in quick succession, West Virginia, Kansas, Texas, and Alabama—the first team to have four top ten wins in a month since 1974 (NC State). Weeks later they were 14-5 with a gaudy résumé and looked like a contender for a 2 or 3 seed. Then the bottom dropped out; the Sooners lost 4 of their next five and slid to an 8-seed. Sounds harsh, but three of their last 4 wins are over 2-22 Iowa State.
Austin Reeves leads the team with 17.7 points per game and is also top rebounder with 5.7 and leading assist man with 4.7. Let's just say he does it all, even as a 6-5 guard. As a team the Sooners don't shoot that well but they rarely turn it over.
Oklahoma's 2nd leading scorer is De'Vion Harmon (12.9 ppg); he just tested positive for Covid and is out for at least the first two rounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (15)Oral Roberts+27, =(7)Oregon+8, @(11)Wichita St.+10, (13)Liberty+9, (1)Illinois+3, @(3)Arkansas+13, @(5)Tennessee+9, (2)Alabama+3, @(7)Florida+2
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (5)Tennessee-20, (3)Arkansas-OT, (8)LSU-6, =(3)Arkansas-6
- Other losses (5): @Mississippi St.-15, @Auburn-6, @Mississippi-21, @Georgia-10, Mississippi-7
Overview: How does a team have 9 wins over tournament teams and get a 9-seed? Supposedly the committee doesn't consider recent play, but they must have seen Missouri's 3-6 slump and kept looking past them. They beat 1-seed Illinois, 2-seed Alabama, and 3-seed Arkansas! Sure there are a few bad losses, but even 5-seeds have those.
Guards Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson both average 14.1 points per game for the Tigers; both are 3-point threats, though the Tigers don't shoot the 3 very well as a team. They are good at the 2, with Jeremiah Tilmon (12.3 points, 7.0 rebounds) shooting 62%.
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Game Analysis: As I've noted, this game is a race to the bottom. Both these teams were in position to conceivably be 1-seeds if things worked out well; instead the opposite happened.
Missouri was 13-3 with wins over Illinois and Alabama. Oklahoma was 14-5 with wins over Kansas, Texas, West Virginia, and Alabama. Missouri lost 6 of 9; Oklahoma dropped 4 of 5.
The good news is that one of these teams will emerge with a victory after all their suffering. That's probably Missouri. Reading into the teams' charts can be a folly, and most of this is pseudoscience anyway, but it at least looks like they're playing a bit better game by game. Oklahoma has flatlined.
That, and Oklahoma's loss of #2 scorer Harmon for the game make Missouri our favorite. Yes, I realize the Sooners beat Alabama without their #1 scorer but that was a different Oklahoma team.
Vegas Line:
Oklahoma by 2
Power rating: spread
Oklahoma by 1.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Oklahoma: 51.0%
Missouri: 49.0%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Oklahoma: 39.9%
Missouri: 61.1%
Missouri by 4.3
Oklahoma is the slight favorite by the books, and the Strength power rating agrees as usual. It's a close one though; for the full season Oklahoma wins 51% of the time, Missouri 49%.
Everything changes with recent play and Missouri becomes a substantial favorite—61% and 4.3 points. Of course 6 games is arbitrary, if we use the last 5 then Missouri is just a half-point favorite. That's what a small sample does.
But Oklahoma is missing a key player, tilting us to the upset, if a 9 beating an 8 can be called an upset.
Bottom line: Missouri wins, or rather, avoids losing.
Final prediction: Missouri 74, Oklahoma 67
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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