All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Louisiana State Tigers
Seed: 8
Record: 18-9
Conference: SEC
vs.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Seed: 9
Record: 16-4
Conference: Atlantic 10
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 1:45 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Channel: TNT
Two teams peaking at the right time face off for the right to tackle a 1-seed.
LSU St. Bonaventure
Power Ratings
Strength: #26 Strength: #28
Pomeroy: #29 Pomeroy: #25
Offense: #5 Offense: #38
Defense: #125 Defense: #17
BPI: #24 BPI: #26
LRMC: #25 LRMC: #37
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #78/#47 Tempo Total/Off: #319/#323
SOS: #38 SOS: #87
Consistency: #318 Consistency: #123
Str x Consistency: #38 Str x Consistency: #22
2nd half season: #37 2nd half season: #14
Last 6 games: #15 Last 6 games: #9
Road Strength: #43 Road Strength: #70
Injury Modifier: #27 Injury Modifier: #26
This is an excellent 8 vs. 9 seed game with evenly matched opponents; the 8 vs 9 is basically a 50/50 so that's appropriate. Our Strength power rating has LSU two rungs better, as does BPI. LRMC has LSU better by 12 places, ranking the Bonnies the lowest at #37. But St. Bonaventure is 4 places better in Pomeroy.
St. Bonaventure plays a slow tempo while LSU plays fast. The Tigers have one of the top offenses in the nation but their defense really lags, creating an opportunity for the Bonnies' own so-so offense. When LSU has the ball it will look like a clash of 1-seeds more than and 8 vs. 9 game.
LSU is the less consistent team, and they've played a tougher schedule but not by that much. Both teams are peaking right now; theough LSU had some trouble since January their recent play has been great, while St. Bonaventure seems to just keep getting better. Neither team plays great on the road, but neither is the home team so that probably cancels out.
Season overview: Louisiana St.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (3)Arkansas+16, (5)Tennessee+13, @(9)Missouri+6, =(3)Arkansas+7
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(7)Florida-4, (2)Alabama-30, (6)Texas Tech-5, @(2)Alabama-18, @(3)Arkansas-8, =(2)Alabama-1
- Other losses (3): @Saint Louis-4, @Kentucky-13, @Georgia-13
Overview: Louisiana State started off rough, struggling with SIU Edwardsville and losing to St. Louis but played two of their best games against SE Louisiana and Louisiana Tech, winning 96-43 and 86-55 before coach Will Wade tested positive for Covid, making the rest of the pre-conference season disjointed. They barely beat Nicholls State on their return but won 5 of their first 6 in SEC competition. They lost four of their next five with no Covid excuse, including a 105-75 home loss to Alabama. Three big wins were followed by two more losses, but their last five games were all solid, up to and including the 1-point loss to Alabama in the SEC title game.
Cameron Thomas leads one of the nation's best offenses, scoring 22.6 points a game; Trendon Watford adds 16.7 points and 7.4 rebounds while Ja'Vonte Smart averages 15.9. The Tigers shoot the ball well, rebound well, and rarely turn it over; that, and a fast pace adds up to a lot of points. It also adds up to a lot of points for their opponents, especially due to their poor defensive rebounding.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (10)VCU+16, =(10)VCU+9
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(10)VCU-3
- Other losses (3): @Rhode Island-6, @Saint Louis-11, Dayton-3
Overview: St. Bonaventure has only played three games against tournament teams—all three against 10-seed VCU. They won the first, dropped the 2nd, and won the neutral court game and with it the Atlantic 10 crown. Their season was short—20 games—but mostly because they only played 3 games in December. The Bonnies were a consistent team until recently; they beat George Washington 88-41 only to fall to Dayton a few days later. Their Atlantic 10 run was pretty solid, though.
St. Bonaventure has five players who average in double figures, led by point guard Kyle Lofton at 14.6. Their leading rebounder (9.4) and shot blocker (2.9) is Osun Osunniyi, who at 6-10 has a 7-foot 8-inch wingspan and causes lots of trouble in the interior.
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Game Analysis: The tempo conondrum is a big part of this game. Who will control the tempo, fast-paced LSU or slow-paced St. Bonaventure? And does it even really matter? It would seem to, and it seems like it should be easier for a slow-tempo team to impose their will on the fast-tempo team. If that's the case, the advantage goes to the Bonnies.
St. Bonaventure has an imposing center with an amazing wingspan. Osun Osunniyi is a great shot blocker, and with LSU better at shooting 2-pointers than 3s, he could be a big factor. He's also important for rebounding, and LSU lags in defensive rebounding. The Tigers are taller than the Bonnies at the guard and forward positions, but not by too much; still, they might find themselves shooting a lot of threes, and winning or losing there, where they shoot 35%.
In many ways, the game comes down to whether LSU's offense can dominate enough to offset their poor defense on the other end of the floor.
Vegas Line:
Louisiana St. by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Louisiana St. by 0.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Louisiana St.: 51.9%
St. Bonaventure: 48.1%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Louisiana St.: 36.1%
St. Bonaventure: 63.9%
St. Bonaventure by 3.3
This is a tight game; Vegas has LSU by 1 1/2, we have them by about half a point, and just a shade under 52% when all performances are cross-compared. Over the arbitrary past 6 games St. Bonaventure is a bigger favorite at 3.3 points and 64%, but that includes both an outlier win and loss from a normally consistent team.
Bottom line: This is almost too close to call, and it's an important one because the winner faces a possible compromised Michigan team next and has a decent chance of getting an upset there. We like what we've seen with St. Bonaventure's effort level and composure, and think they could be in for a good run—if they can get past the Tigers.
Final prediction: St. Bonaventure 75, LSU 71
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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