All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Seed: 8
Record: 24-4
Conference: Missouri Valley
vs.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Seed: 9
Record: 17-8
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 4:00 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
How's this one for writing itself: The Ramblers vs. the Ramblin' Wreck.
Loyola Chicago Georgia Tech
Power Ratings
Strength: #32 Strength: #40
Pomeroy: #9 Pomeroy: #32
Offense: #49 Offense: #27
Defense: #1 Defense: #52
BPI: #21 BPI: #35
LRMC: #10 LRMC: #41
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #342/#300 Tempo Total/Off: #215/#219
SOS: #171 SOS: #57
Consistency: #320 Consistency: #220
Str x Consistency: #47 Str x Consistency: #44
2nd half season: #19 2nd half season: #28
Last 6 games: #67 Last 6 games: #20
Road Strength: #11 Road Strength: #25
Injury Modifier: #37 Injury Modifier: #38
Unlike most games where the power ratings line up behind a favorite, this one is all over the place. And not just because it's an 8 vs. 9, which is historically a tossup anyway. No, the power ratings don't really agree on Loyola Chicago. We have them at a respectable #32, but Pomeroy has them at a stellar top ten! The LRMC largely agrees, while the BPI is the compromise at #21. Regardless of where we rank them, their #1 defense should be noted.
There's a lot more agreement about Georgia Tech: they're somewhere in the 30s to low 40s. They play a moderately slow tempo compared to Loyola's very slow tempo (one of the reasons they end up so high in Pomeroy). The Yellow Jackets have also improved greatly in the 2nd half of the season and in particular the last several games.
Loyola has gone the wrong direction, however. They're better in the 2nd half of the year but abysmal in recent play. We'll have to take a look at their chart, because their very low consistency ranking implies they're all over the place. Normally low-tempo teams rank with high consistency because their point spreads aren't as wide, so Loyola must be very random game to game.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (13)North Texas+8, @(11)Drake+27, =(11)Drake+10
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(9)Wisconsin-14, @(11)Drake-OT
- Other losses (2): =Richmond-2, @Indiana St.-5
Overview: Loyola Chicago really does have a disparate chart, with early games of a similar low quality before they reach some highs starting in the middle of the season. They didn't play a very tough schedule, boasting only a couple wins over Drake to their name really, and a loss to Wisconsin; Drake is the only team to beat them since early January. The Ramblers' low rank over the last 6 games is easily explainable: they played three of their worse games following the Drake loss. Those were all wins, however, and their MVC tournament run contained three overachieving performances.
Center Cameron Krutwig is by far the Ramblers' leading scorer at 15.0 ppg, and a half-dozen others average 7 or 8 points. When you play as slow as the Ramblers there aren't a lot of points to go around. He also leads the team in rebounds (6.7), blocks (1.2) and even assists (3.0).
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (8)North Carolina+5, (7)Clemson+18, (4)Florida St.+11, @(10)Virginia Tech+16, (11)Syracuse+7, =(4)Florida St.+5
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(4)Florida St.-13, @(4)Virginia-2, (4)Virginia-8, @(7)Clemson-2
- Other losses (4): Georgia St.-OT, Mercer-10, @Duke-7, @Louisville-16
Overview: Georgia Tech's season started with a quadruple-overtime loss to Georgia State and appeared to be over in mid February after they lost 5 of 7 in three weeks following 17 days off for Covid protocols. At 9-8 overall and 5-6 in ACC play the odds were long. But the Wreck haven't lost since, finishing 11-6 in conference and making sure of things by winning the ACC tournament. They got some help along the way as Virginia pulled out of the tourney and they capped it off with their 2nd win over FSU.
Four players average in double figures for the Yellow Jackets; Moses Wright leads with 17.4 points and 8 rebounds, while Jose Alvarado (15.3) had a rare highlight-reel-worthy inbounds-play save against Miami.
Georgia Tech announced a positive Covid test by an unnamed player. The sportsbooks seem to think it's someone important and have jumped the line 3 1/2 points in Loyola of Chicago's favor. UDPATE: Somehow the betting public/sportsbooks/Vegas seem to know things before anyone else. The player who tested positive is Moses Wright.
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Game Analysis: First, let's dispel Loyola Chicago's poor recent play, as it will make them look terrible in the numbers below. Their three poor performances were all wins, near the end of a conference season, and none of them really mattered. They did what they needed to do to win. Once the tournament started and they wanted to guarantee a spot in the Big Dance, you saw effort and what they're really capable of. So those last 3 games are more important than the full 6, which is an arbitrary number to begin with.
But there's no denying Georgia Tech's surge over the same period. They've played great for about 8 straight games. And this followed a skid that followed time off due to Covid protocols (of course, that time back also included big wins over Clemson and Florida State, so it's not like they played helplessly then).
Each team has an area of strength that will test the other team. Of course Loyola Chicago's defense is rock solid, but Georgia Tech has a good offense. They don't rebound well, however, something Loyola Chicago does to limit 2nd chances. Nor do the Ramblers send opponents to the free throw line. They also shoot the lights out, ranking 9th in FG percentage while Georgia Tech's defensive numbers are poor. On the other hand, Georgia Tech's defense forces a lot of turnovers, something Loyola is vulnerable to.
Vegas Line:
Loyola Chicago by 5 1/2 [up from 2]
Power rating: spread
Loyola Chicago by 1.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Loyola Chicago: 50.3%
Georgia Tech: 49.7%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Loyola Chicago: 33.3%
Georgia Tech: 66.7%
Georgia Tech by 8.1
As noted, the full-season game comparison odds are probably the most accurate; these are two teams playing great basketball, and it's a coin flip. Unless one or the other just has a bad game, it's going to be close.
Update: With Georgia Tech announcing a positive Covid case, the line has moved from LoC by 2 to LoC by 5 1/2, a significant move. We're not changing our prediction.
Bottom line: This ends up being a classic 8 vs. 9, and it should be a great game. Both these teams deserved better placement so they could each go to the Sweet Sixteen, but instead they face a 1-seed next. I think Loyola has just a few more advantages head-to-head. It's anyone's game but I'm going with the Ramblers.
Update 2: The player has been confirmed as Georgia Tech leading scorer and rebounder Moses Wright. We're obviously aren't changing our pick, and maybe we'll go from a 1 point game to a 2 point game. Teams that lose a player tend to come together and play roughly the same anyway, especially in March Madness. Either that or they get blown out, but that's rare.
Final prediction: Loyola Chicago 65, Georgia Tech 63
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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