All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Oregon Ducks
Seed: 7
Record: 20-6
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
VCU Rams
Seed: 10
Record: 19-7
Conference: Atlantic 10
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TNT
Vegas knows something about this game that we don't, apparently...
Oregon VCU
Power Ratings
Strength: #36 Strength: #48
Pomeroy: #36 Pomeroy: #45
Offense: #16 Offense: #117
Defense: #76 Defense: #12
BPI: #34 BPI: #57
LRMC: #30 LRMC: #36
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #242/#181 Tempo Total/Off: #110/40
SOS: #68 SOS: #82
Consistency: #38 Consistency: #99
Str x Consistency: #23 Str x Consistency: #39
2nd half season: #46 2nd half season: #49
Last 6 games: #26 Last 6 games: #70
Road Strength: #35 Road Strength: #65
Injury Modifier: #30 (Covid) Injury Modifier: #45
7 vs. 10 seed games are usually very competitive, with 10-seeds coming out on top almost 40% of the time. But unlike 8 vs 9 games, the 7-seed is usually a clear favorite going in. Oregon ranks in the 30s in all the power ratings, while VCU is in the 40s in Strength and Pomeroy, and #57 in BPI. The LRMC puts them #36, in line with Oregon, but they rank Oregon higher at #30. It will be high-level basketball when the Ducks have the ball against VCU's great defense, not so much when VCU has the ball.
Both teams play faster on offense than defense; that is, their overall tempo is slower than their offensive tempo, especially VCU. In fact on defense VCU's average opponent possession length ranks #302 (that is, it's a longer time) and Oregon is #291. So on offense, Oregon want to play a moderate tempo but VCU's D wants to make them take time. And VCU's offense (#40 in tempo) wants to strike fast and run, but Oregon's D wants to put on the brakes. We'll have to see how that goes for both teams.
There's not a lot of difference in schedule strength between Pac-12's Oregon and Atlantic 10's VCU; the leagues aren't that different, and VCU played more tough non-conference games than the Ducks. Both teams are pretty consistent, meaning it's more likely we get the result we expect, which is bad for VCU. As for more recent play, the Ducks stumbled since the mid-point of the year but may have recovered to play better than before; they also rank higher if you account for their Covid pauses. Meanwhile VCU seems to have faltered lately. We'll take a look.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (14)Eastern Washington+17, (5)Colorado+4, (11)UCLA+8, @(12)Oregon St.+13
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(9)Missouri-8, @(5)Colorado-7, (12)Oregon St.-11, @(6)USC-14, =(12)Oregon St.-11
- Other losses (1): Washington St.-3
Overview: Oregon lost to 9-seed Missouri early but won 8 straight after that, mostly over cupcakes though that included 14-seed Eastern Washington. After losing to Colorado and beating Utah on January 9, they had Covid issues, not playing again for two weeks; that was a bad loss to Oregon State, after which they had another 2 weeks off before losing to 14-13 Washington State. They barely beat lowly 5-21 Washington, but seemed to recover after that, winning 5 straight in all before the USC loss, after which they played their very best in winning 6 straight. Then they played terribly in their last game, losing to Oregon State. If not for that last dud, Oregon might look like a team that's going places.
Oregon has five scorers in double figures, led by 6-6 senior guard Chris Duarte and 6-6 senior forward Eugene Omoruyi, both of whom average 16.7 points per game. The Ducks shoot the ball well and pretty much do everything right on offense; they don't defend nearly as well.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(11)Utah St.+16, (16)Mount St. Mary's+18, (9)St. Bonaventure+3
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(3)West Virginia-12, @(9)St. Bonaventure-16, =(9)St. Bonaventure-9
- Other losses (4): @Penn St.-3, Rhode Island-15, George Mason-OT, @Davidson-8
Overview: VCU kicked off the non-conference season again 4 solid foes, splitting those games; they beat 11-seed Utah State 85-69, lost to 3-seed West Virginia 78-66, beat Memphis 70-59, and lost to Penn State 72-69. The first three games were at the esteemed Bad Boy Mowers Crossover Classic. They beat cupcakes until the Atlantic 10 started, where they started 16-4 but lost 2 of their last 3 before the Atlantic 10 tournament. They reached the final before falling to St. Bonaventure, whom they'd split with prior.
VCU's star on offense is Nah'Shon Hyland who averages 19.5 points per game. But it's the Rams' defense that has always gotten the press—even if they no longer press for 40 minutes. VCU's vaunted pressuring, trapping defense—made famous when Shaka Smart was coach but still used, adapted for half-court play—forces turnovers and generally disrupts opponents offenses. VCU is #3 in steals, #9 in turnovers overall, and #4 in blocks with Hyson Ward averaging 2.3 per game. They force opponents to take bad shots and take a long time doing it.
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Game Analysis: These teams are pretty well matched up: Oregon's great offense vs. VCU's great defense, and the Rams' mediocre offense vs. Oregon's suspect D. Stylistically (and quality-wise) it's more telling to take a look at the former matchup. VCU's defense is unique in forcing turnovers and blocking shots while limiting field goal percentage by not allowing good shots. Oregon's offense gives up the ball pretty rarely, and they don't have it blocked all that often, so they are a good candidate to weather VCU's defensive assault. They don't mind taking their time on offense either. They're a great shooting team going up against a defense that holds opponents to a bad percentage. Basically, they're evenly matched here.
That means the other end of the floor, where poor basketball is being played, might decide the outcome. Interestingly, VCU on offense is vulnerable to steals and blocks, and Oregon's defense is pretty good in those categories. The Ducks might beat the Rams at their own game.
Both teams suffered losses in their tournament finals,. The Ducks' loss was a lot worse, but they were playing like gangbusters prior to that game while the Rams were up and down at best. And Oregon's underperformance might partially be explained as a rivalry game where outlier results tend to occur; they were also playing a team that needed a win to keep their season alive, whereas both VCU and St. Bonaventure were already pretty well locked in.
The discrepancy in the the Vegas line should be noted. The sportsbooks have Oregon by 5, which is out of line with every power rating; so far the sportsbooks have been within a point or two of our spread, this one is almost 4 points away. It makes me wonder if someone on VCU has tested positive for Covid; the jump is similar to the boost in Loyola Chicago's line, going from 2 to 5.5 even before Georgia Tech revealed it was their leading scorer who was out. The only player that might be missing for VCU that we know about is reserve guard KeShawn Curry, and he wouldn't move the line 4 points. I don't want to start any rumors, but only Nah'Shon Hyland would do that. As far as I know, however, this is how the line opened; there was no big move.
Vegas Line:
Oregon by 5
Power rating: spread
Oregon by 1.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Oregon: 54.6%
VCU: 45.4%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Oregon: 77.8%
VCU: 22.2%
Oregon by 7.4
This is probably the biggest discrepancies between the sportsbooks and our Strength power rating in the first round. We have Oregon by about a point and a half, they take Oregon by 5 points.
So who is out of line? Let's compare with other power ratings: Pomeroy has Oregon by 1; BPI take the Ducks by 1.7 points. Pretty much in line with what we have. So apparently something else is going on that we don't know about.
Bottom line: We are going to just ignore Oregon's last-game flop and assume it was a 1-off and take the Ducks. We're only interested in outcome, not the spread, but since Vegas seems to know something we'll assume it means Oregon is going to win rather easily.
Final prediction: Oregon 70, VCU 59
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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