All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Florida Gators
Seed: 7
Record: 14-9
Conference: SEC
vs.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Seed: 10
Record: 15-6
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 12:15 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
This year the tournament proper doesn't start until Friday morning, and here's your kickoff game.
Florida Virginia Tech
Power Ratings
Strength: #29 Strength: #52
Pomeroy: #37 Pomeroy: #50
Offense: #40 Offense: #55
Defense: #37 Defense: #54
BPI: #32 BPI: #38
LRMC: #50 LRMC: #83
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #165/#71 Tempo Total/Off: #293/#265
SOS: #17 SOS: #80
Consistency: #256 Consistency: #261
Str x Consistency: #37 Str x Consistency: #60
2nd half season: #34 2nd half season: #52
Last 6 games: #41 Last 6 games: #50
Road Strength: #23 Road Strength: #86
Injury Modifier: #38 -KJohnson Injury Modifier: #47
Florida beats Virginia Tech in all the power rating numbers, including having an advantage both on offense and defense, and they've played a much more challenging schedule on average. The LRMC is particularly unimpressed with both teams, but especially the Hokies. Both teams are pretty inconsistent, however, giving Virginia Tech hope.
Excluding Florida's early games with Keyontae Johnson narrows the gap, but if this contest counts as a road game, Florida's been far better than Virginia Tech. The Hokies will try to play a much slower game than Florida on offense.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (8)LSU+4, (5)Tennessee+26, @(3)West Virginia+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(4)Florida St.-12, @(2)Alabama-15, @(3)Arkansas-11, (9)Missouri-2, @(5)Tennessee-11, =(5)Tennessee-12
- Other losses (3): Kentucky-18, @Mississippi St.-3, South Carolina-6
Overview: Florida beat three tourney teams including 3-seed West Virginia, and their best game was a 26 point blowout of 5-seed Tennessee. They lost twice to the Vols by double digits though, and lost three other times by double digits to tournament foes. Their season ended on a 1-3 skid which included the losses to Tennessee.
Trey Mann leads the team at 16.0ppg, stepping up after Keyontae Johnson was lost after just three games. Three other Gators score in double figures. On defense, the Gators block a lot of shots but allow a lot of offensive rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =(5)Villanova+OT, (7)Clemson+6, (4)Virginia+14
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(11)Syracuse-18, (9)Georgia Tech-16, =(8)North Carolina-8
- Other losses (3): Penn St.-20, @Louisville-2, @Pittsburgh-11
Overview: The Hokies enter the tournament 3-3 vs. the field, but they beat the higher seeds they played (4-seed Virginia, 5 Villanova, and 7 Clemson) while losing to 8-seed UNC, 9 Georgia Tech and 11 Syracuse. They've lost 2 of their last 3 but their recent 84-46 win over Wake Forest was their top performance. That was on February 27, however, and they had 12 days off due to Covid protocol before their loss to North Carolina in the ACC tournament.
6-9 Forward Keve Aluma is the team's leading scorer (15.6) and rebounder (8.0). Tyrece Radford (11.9ppg) is another game-changer with highlight reel dunking ability.
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Game Analysis: Sometimes the 7-10 matchups look backwards, with the 10 appearing to outshine the 7-seed. This isn't really one of those cases. Florida is generally a step better than Virginia Tech across the board on average. But both teams are up and down in their performance, so it's hard to get a handle on an average game.
Neither team has played a lot of games this year; Florida almost cancelled their season after Keyontae Johnson collapsed due to a heart condition, and Virginia Tech had almost two weeks off late in the season due to Covid. By this time, Florida has more than adjusted to Johnson's absence (he's still cheering from the bench) and Virginia Tech's time off was for contact tracing (they could still practice). Since their February 6 win over Miami they've played just three(!) games.
Other than the tempo difference—Virginia Tech plays slow, Florida pushes it a bit on offense—there really isn't much discrepancy in style. Their shooting percentages are almost exactly the same, and where one team is weak on offense the other is unlikely to capitalize on defense. Look for lots of blocked shots as both defenses swat a lot while both teams fall victim to the block more than average.
Vegas Line:
Florida by 1
Power rating: spread
Florida by 2.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Florida: 56.9%
Virginia Tech: 43.1%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Florida: 63.9%
Virginia Tech: 36.1%
Florida by 1.3
Florida is a one-point favorite by Vegas, while our power rating suggests something close to 3 points, giving the Gators a 57% chance to win. Per recent performance that goes up to 64% but the average outcome falls close to Vegas's 1 point. The complicating factors are both teams' inconsistency, and Virginia Tech's recent long break from playing: are they rusty, or well-rested?
Bottom line: Florida is usually just a bit better across the board than Virginia Tech, and they'll be pulling for a win to dedicate to Johnson. Unless Virginia Tech can reprise their Wake Forest performance, Florida should advance.
Final prediction: Florida 69, Virginia Tech 65
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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