All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 7
Record: 15-7
Conference: Big East
vs.
Maryland Terrapins
Seed: 10
Record: 16-13
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 7:10 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Channel: CBS
A major conference class between UConn and Maryland, with the winner likely (unfortunately) running into Alabama.
Connecticut Maryland
Power Ratings
Strength: #17 Strength: #31
Pomeroy: #16 Pomeroy: #31
Offense: #24 Offense: #42
Defense: #25 Defense: #27
BPI: #15 BPI: #43
LRMC: #27 LRMC: #34
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #301/#309 Tempo Total/Off: #317/#285
SOS: #39 SOS: #15
Consistency: #57 Consistency: #127
Str x Consistency: #10 Str x Consistency: #28
2nd half season: #13 2nd half season: #31
Last 6 games: #3 Last 6 games: #27
Road Strength: #16 Road Strength: #27
Injury Modifier: #6 (+Bouknight) Injury Modifier: #28
UConn has the look of a team that could make a deep tournament run—even to the Final Four. Their power rating numbers aren't spectacular but are top 20. They have a good offense and defense. They're a very consistent team, unlikely to get upset or have an "off" game. They've been playing great recently—#3 over the last six games. And they have a budding superstar in James Bouknight to lead them there. What's not to like? Other than the fact that they would run smack into Alabama, making for a very difficult choice.
Maryland is no slouch either, at #31 in both Strength and Pomeroy, a good offense and defense, a strong SOS, fairly good consistency themselves and improved recent play. And they've got stars of their own in Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins. Both teams want to play a slow tempo so it's going to be a halfcourt-to-halfcourt kind of contest.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (16)Hartford+12, =(6)USC+3, @(12)Georgetown+13, (12)Georgetown+16
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (5)Creighton-OT, @(5)Creighton-8, @(5)Villanova-8, =(5)Creighton-3
- Other losses (3): St. John's-4, Seton Hall-7, @Providence-11
Overview: Connecticut's season was typical—win a few games, beat USC, then take a long Covid pause, you come back and your star player scores 40 but you still lose to Creighton in overtime, your star player gets hurt in early January and you lose several games including another one to Creighton, he comes back and you go 6-2 but you still lose to Creighton one more time. Typical.
The star player in question in James Bouknight, and when he's been healthy the Huskies are a great team. After his return from elbow surgery UConn played five great games in a row before stumbling to Creighton once again. Bouknight, a freshman, averages 19.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. UConn isn't a great shooting team but they rebound really well, and that must work out for them because they have a top 25 offense, with a defense to match.
RJ Cole (#2 scorer at 12.3ppg) suffered a concussion in UConn's last game and may miss the Maryland game; he's been cleared to practice hower.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (16)Mount St. Mary's+18, @(9)Wisconsin+6, @(1)Illinois+3, (4)Purdue+1, @(10)Rutgers+9, (11)Michigan St.+18, =(11)Michigan St.+11
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @(7)Clemson-16, (10)Rutgers-14, @(4)Purdue-3, (1)Michigan-11, (2)Iowa-22, @(1)Michigan-24, (9)Wisconsin-6, (2)Ohio St.-8, =(1)Michigan-13
- Other losses (4): @Indiana-8, @Penn St.-5, @Northwestern-5, Penn St.-5
Overview: Maryland was 6-6 at one point in the season and was pretty much written off as a March Madness contender. Slowly but surely, though, they won games and built their résumé. The biggest win happened right away when they took down future 1-seed Illinois 66-63 on the road. They edged Purdue at home (a win's a win), then beat Rutgers and Michigan State on a 5-game winning streak. They dropped their last two regular season games to unheralded Northwestern and Penn State and they probably needed the win over Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament or they might have fallen into the play-in 11-seed where the Spartans ended up.
Maryland has a great 1-2 punch of Eric Ayala (14.9 points) and Aaron Wiggins (14.0) at guard. Both are tall—6-6 and 6-5—and the whole team is at least 6-5, making them the 30th tallest team in the nation despite having no one on the floor over 6-7 most of the time. Maryland shoots well but mainly on 2s; they take a lot of 3s but as a team aren't great (Ayala and Wiggins combine for about 33%).
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Game Analysis: Both teams are good on offense but get there in different ways. UConn doesn't really shoot well but they get a lot of 2nd chances. Maryland isn't good at offensive rebounding at all but they shoot well. It's the opposite on defense where UConn rebounds well but Maryland doesn't; instead UConn blocks shots and guards well.
None of the stars of this game, Bouknight, nor Ayala and Wiggins, are great three-point shooters; Bouknight, in particular, gets his buckets the old-fashioned way, with 2s. So on both sides of the court spacing and dribble-drive penetration will be important. Both teams have better 3-point shooters to open things up on the inside.
These are fairly similar teams in many ways, consisting mainly of tall guard-forwards. With the Terps dropping three of their last four, UConn just looks like they're playing better at this point in time.
Vegas Line:
Connecticut by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Connecticut by 2.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Connecticut: 57.4%
Maryland: 42.6%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Connecticut: 75.0%
Maryland: 25.0%
Connecticut by 9.4
UConn is a slim favorite by both the sportsbooks and our Strength power rating, with a winning percentage just below the 61% normal for a 7-seed. Per recent play, though, it looks more like a 4 vs. 13. It's a small sample, but I think it reflects what's going on right now.
Bottom line: I'm liking UConn for a possible deep tournament run. Alabama is in their way and I don't know which way to go there, but I think they get past Maryland.
Final prediction: Connecticut 70, Maryland 61
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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