All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Clemson Tigers
Seed: 7
Record: 16-7
Conference: ACC
vs.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Seed: 10
Record: 15-11
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
This is a very competitive 7 vs. 10 matchup, to the point that even Vegas favors the 'underdog'.
Clemson Rutgers
Power Ratings
Strength: #49 Strength: #34
Pomeroy: #42 Pomeroy: #34
Offense: #99 Offense: #75
Defense: #20 Defense: #18
BPI: #39 BPI: #46
LRMC: #65 LRMC: #45
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #338/#255 Tempo Total/Off: #213/#150
SOS: #37 SOS: #4
Consistency: #333 Consistency: #227
Str x Consistency: #67 Str x Consistency: #36
2nd half season: #60 2nd half season: #32
Last 6 games: #51 Last 6 games: #73
Road Strength: #117 Road Strength: #57
Injury Modifier: #16 (Covid) Injury Modifier: #29
Check out the power ratings: Out Strength power ratings, Pomeroy, and LRMC all favor the 10-seed. The BPI goes with Clemson. The teams' defenses rank almost the same in Pomeroy but Rutgers gets the edge on offense. In both cases, the defenses are better than the opponent's offense by a wide margin, so look for a low-scoring game—also because of the slow tempo both teams play at, particularly the Tigers.
Clemson is also more hot-and-cold than Rutgers, though the Scarlet Knights aren't all that predictable themselves. Both teams seem to play worse on the road but Clemson is downright terrible away from home, giving Rutgers an edge perhaps. On the other hand, Rutgers' last several performances were not very promising. And when accounting for Covid pauses and the after effects, Clemson suddenly becomes a top 20 team, something that's hard to ignore when looking at their chart; it also explains most of their low consistency score.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(4)Purdue+11, (10)Maryland+16, =(2)Alabama+8, (14)Morehead St.+15, (4)Florida St.+10, (8)North Carolina+13, (11)Syracuse+17, (9)Georgia Tech+2
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(10)Virginia Tech-6, (4)Virginia-35, @(9)Georgia Tech-18, @(4)Florida St.-19, @(11)Syracuse-10
- Other losses (2): @Duke-26, =Miami FL-3
Overview: Clemson almost made the AP top 10 after starting off 9-1 with wins over Purdue, Maryland, Alabama, and Florida State; that's three teams expected to make the Sweet Sixteen. But after a 10-day Covid protocol they derailed, losing 4 of their next 5 including an 85-50 loss at home to Virginia and a 79-53 loss to then-struggling Duke. After this bad drought, however, the Tigers came back strong, winning five straight. But they lost two of their last three so where does that leave them?
Aamir Simms is the only Tiger averaging double figures at 13.3—that's the product of a poor offense and a slow tempo. He also leads the team in rebounding at 6.2 and assists at 2.7. Clemson shoots 77% from the foul line but gets there at a very low rate. The Tigers play solid defense and wait for opponents to make a mistake; they play 11-12 players to stay fresh.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (11)Syracuse+10, @(10)Maryland+14, (1)Illinois+3, (4)Purdue+5, (11)Michigan St.+30
- Losses to tournament teams (9): @(2)Ohio St.-12, (2)Iowa-2, @(11)Michigan St.-23, (2)Ohio St.-11, (9)Wisconsin-6, @(2)Iowa-13, @(1)Michigan-7, (10)Maryland-9, =(1)Illinois-22
- Other losses (2): @Penn St.-8, @Nebraska-21
Overview: Much like Clemson, Rutgers started the year with a bang, going 7-1 with wins over Syracuse, Maryland, 1-seed Illinois and 4-seed Purdue. But then, also like Clemson, they hit a wall—and they can't blame Covid protocols. They can, however, blame playing in the crazy tough Big Ten, at least for the losses to Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. They also lost to Penn State though, and 3 of the 5 losses were at home. From there the Scarlet Knights were up and down, scoring a 67-37 win over Michigan State but also losing to Nebraska 72-51.
Rutgers doesn't shoot the ball well, particularly from behind the arc or from the free throw line, which explains a lot of their offensive woes. They are led by Ron Harper Jr., a big 6-6 guard who averages 15.4 points per game. Center Myles Johnson grabs 8.7 boards per game.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Rutgers didn't play well down the stretch, finishing 4-5. But two of those losses were to 1-seed Michigan and 2-seed Iowa, and both on the road. And do we really count the last game, a loss to 1-seed Illinois? Make that 3-2. They lost at home to Maryland and got blown out by Nebraska—both bad. But their three wins in that stretch were pretty impressive, especially their two wins over an Indiana team that needed wins to get in the tournament.
Clemson didn't play well down the stretch either, losing 2 of their last 3. Their worst stretch, where they lost 4 of 5, came in January. It followed 10 days off for Covid where all basketball activities (i.e. practice) were suspended. For two weeks they were a terrible team, then they were really good again, just like that. If we exclude those performances from Clemson's résumé they are suddenly a much better team—ranking #18 in Strength, up from #49—and also a much more consistent team. Suddenly Clemson looks not like a overseeded 7-seed but a solid one with a chance to make some waves in the tournament.
But then they lost two of their last three games, including to a Miami team that was down to 6 scholarship players. Meanwhile Rutgers, win or lose, was fighting pretty hard and looked like they were having fun, even when losing against Illinois. This is a game where I don't expect a good performance from either team, and with two good defenses and two mediocre offenses it might be sloppy. If the game is won with heart, Rutgers will take it.
Vegas Line:
Rutgers by 1 1/2
Power rating: spread
Rutgers by 1.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Clemson: 47.7%
Rutgers: 52.3%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Clemson: 55.6%
Rutgers: 44.4%
Clemson by 3.2
Interestingly Vegas has the Scarlet Knights by a point and a half, pretty much matching our estimate. Pomeroy has Rutgers by two, while the BPI has Clemson by 0.3 points, with a 51.5% chance to win. I guess that means overtime?
Our numbers show Rutgers with a 52.3% chance to win, unless you look at just the last six games and it flips to Clemson by about 3 points.
If we count the entire season but completely excuse Clemson's mid-year slump as the result of Covid protocols and lack of practice, then Clemson is a 57.5% favorite with a 2.7 point spread. The question is, which set of figures do we use? Can Rutgers just erase their mid-season slump too?
Bottom line: Rutgers could win this game with heart and enthusiasm, and they'll be a popular pick since they lead in the power ratings and are actually the favorite. But our review has made us reconsider Clemson's upside, so we're going with the Tigers in an "upset".
Final prediction: Clemson 62, Rutgers 59
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments