All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
USC Trojans
Seed: 6
Record: 22-7
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Drake Bulldogs
Seed: 11
Record: 26-4
Conference: Missouri Valley
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 4:30 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TNT
11-seeds coming off a First Four win very often upset the 6-seed; USC knows, they've been on both sides of that upset.
USC Drake
Power Ratings
Strength: #15 Strength: #66
Pomeroy: #14 Pomeroy: #53
Offense: #30 Offense: #19
Defense: #19 Defense: #120
BPI: #16 BPI: #62
LRMC: #11 LRMC: #39
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #236/#187 Tempo Total/Off: #265/#250
SOS: #52 SOS: #192
Consistency: #268 Consistency: #185
Str x Consistency: #25 Str x Consistency: #65
2nd half season: #23 2nd half season: #96
Last 6 games: #35 Last 6 games: #101
Road Strength: #37 Road Strength: #69
Injury Modifier: #15 Injury Modifier: #50/#111 (+/-Hemphill)
USC is a pretty strong 6-seed by the numbers, rating as a 4-seed in the power ratings. Their offense and defense are both in the top 30. The Trojans had a number of stumbles later in the season that downgrade their rating for the 2nd half of the season and recent play, and made their consistency ranking fall to a worrisome level.
Drake doesn't rank as high of course, but they have an offense every bit as good as USC's defense. The other side of the court will be a challenge, but it gives them hope. Drake's injury situation is hard to get a handle on. They lost Shanquan Hemphill after February 10, and they've played erratically since. On the 21s they lost Roman Penn and they lost another step. They got Hemphill back for the Wichita State game but he scored 1 point instead of his usual 14. So...do we use the #50 rank they get in games they played with Hemphill? Or the #121 where they rank without him? The reality is clearly somewhere in-between, when you add in the injury to Penn.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(6)BYU+26, (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(7)Connecticut-3, (5)Colorado-10, @(12)Oregon St.-2, @(5)Colorado-18, =(5)Colorado-2
- Other losses (2): Arizona-9, @Utah-10
Overview: USC kicked off the season with a 95-87 overtime win over Cal Baptist, hardly a promising start. But a few games later they topped 6-seed BYU 79-53. Losses to UConn and Colorado stalled the Trojans before a 13-1 run put them at the top of the Pac-12 and in the forefront of the college basketball world. Then some turbulence hit; they lost to Arizona, Colorado, and Utah in a 4-game stretch, strangely interrupted by a huge 72-58 win over 7-seed Oregon. And right after these issues, they crushed Stanford 79-42, one of their very best outings, and beat 11-seed UCLA on the road. They lost in the Pac-12 tournament to Colorado—their third loss to the Buffaloes. The Trojans have become a very unpredictable team lately.
USC is led by the Evan Mobley (16.8 ppg, 8.6 rebounds) a 7-0 forward who is a certain lottery pick in the next NBA draft; brother Isaiah, 6-10, is the 4th leading scorer at 9.0 ppg and 2nd leading rebounder. As a team they shoot the ball well and get a lot of rebounds, as they are statistically the 2nd tallest team in the nation. On defense they are lockdown inside the arc, allowing opponents only 42% on 2-pointers. One big flaw: they shoot only 64.7% from the foul line.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (8)Loyola Chicago+OT, =(11)Wichita St.+1
- Losses to tournament teams (2): (8)Loyola Chicago-27, =(8)Loyola Chicago-10
- Other losses (2): @Valparaiso-17, @Bradley-6
Overview: Drake was one of a handful of teams that remained undefeated halfway through the season, up there with Gonzaga, Baylor, and Winthrop. Not that they really had to beat anyone to get there. They did beat K-State in the opener, but that win was also a foreshadowing of how bad the Wildcats were this year. The first tournament team they faced was Loyola Chicago, and it was the first of three meetings. Meetings one and two were played on consecutive days at Drake; they played to a first-half standstill but were blown out in the 2nd. On day 2, they managed a 1-point overtime win that almost certainly is what got them into the tournament as a play-in 11-seed. Because after that they lost to Bradley, and to Loyola again in the Missouri Valley finals.
Drake was led for most of the season by Shanquan "Tank" Hemphill's 14.1 points, but he was hurt when they were 19-1. Since then it's been guard Joseph Yesufu with 12.1 ppg. Tank is back now and played in limited action, scoring 1 point and getting 4 rebounds; we assume he'll play more than that on Saturday. Drake is still missing #3 scorer Roman Penn (11.2ppg) who was hurt a few games after Hemphill.
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Game Analysis: If a game is expected to be close, or even could be close, it's only natural to look at each team's free throw percentage. Here, USC has a big problem, shooting only 64.7%. Drake shoots 70.4% which isn't great but is a lot better than USC; a missed free throw almost cost Drake the First Four win, and that was from an 81% shooter!
USC knows that an 11-seed with a win under its belt is dangerous. Just ask...USC. In 2017 the Trojans were part of the First Four. They beat Providence 75-71 to take on SMU in the proper first round and came away with a 66-65 win. Their streak ended there, but they won't underestimate the winner of the play-in bracket...especially since in 2011 they got beat by 11-seed VCU on the Rams' Final Four run.
The thing is, Drake just didn't look very good out there against Wichita State, a team that isn't really very good. With Hemphill at full-strength—which he is not—and Roman Penn in the lineup, the Bulldogs would be a force to be reckoned with. When essentially two of your top three scorers are out, it's tough.
Drake isn't a very tall team either and they'll have to deal with Evan Mobley, probably the #2 pick in the next draft. They can play with USC on offense but defending them is going to be another matter.
Vegas Line:
USC by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
USC by 7.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
USC: 65.5%
Drake: 34.5%
Recent game performance (last 6):
USC: 69.4%
Drake: 30.6%
USC by 8.3
Early odds on the game nearly match our power rating as usual.
Bottom line: I usually believe in the power of the 11-seed play-in team to beat the 6-seed, but in this case I don't think the matchup is very good for Drake. The Bulldogs' to-win percentage is actually a bit lower than the historical 37% for an 11-seed, and well short of the 46% odds for an 11-seed play-in team.
Final prediction: USC 75, Drake 66
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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