All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 6
Record: 17-10
Conference: Big 12
vs.
Utah State Aggies
Seed: 11
Record: 20-8
Conference: Mountain West
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 1:45 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Channel: TNT
Steady-as-she-goes Texas Tech faces a challenge in the form of 7-0 Neemias Queta.
Texas Tech Utah State
Power Ratings
Strength: #18 Strength: #47
Pomeroy: #23 Pomeroy: #40
Offense: #33 Offense: #112
Defense: #24 Defense: #8
BPI: #8 BPI: #49
LRMC: #17 LRMC: #40
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #316/#270 Tempo Total/Off: #154/#142
SOS: #65 SOS: #122
Consistency: #10 Consistency: #247
Str x Consistency: #6 Str x Consistency: #52
2nd half season: #20 2nd half season: #48
Last 6 games: #18 Last 6 games: #31
Road Strength: #13 Road Strength: #47
Injury Modifier: #18 Injury Modifier: #41 (Covid)
On paper, Texas Tech holds the advantage a 6-seed should have against an 11-seed. They rank a lot better in Strength, Pomeroy, LRMC, and especially in ESPN's BPI, where they are in the top ten! Their offense is a hell of a lot more efficient (read: better) than Utah State's. But Utah State has a top ten defense, what's that all about?
A lot of that is due to the Aggies' 7 foot center, Neemias Queta, who defends the rim making Utah State #4 in 2-point defense and #7 in blocked shots. He's the wild card in what would otherwise be a straightforward pick for Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders are a model of consistency, ranking 10th in the nation in performance variance and making them #6 when combining their Strength and Consistency—a favorite for the Elite Eight. Some of this consistency has to do with their slow tempo which keeps they and their opponents from going too crazy. It also could end up keeping the game closer than they want.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (14)Abilene Christian+7, @(8)Oklahoma+2, @(3)Texas+2, @(8)LSU+5, (8)Oklahoma+5, (3)Texas+9
- Losses to tournament teams (10): =(2)Houston-11, (3)Kansas-1, (4)Oklahoma St.-OT, (1)Baylor-8, @(3)West Virginia-1, (3)West Virginia-11, @(3)Kansas-6, @(4)Oklahoma St.-OT, @(1)Baylor-15, =(3)Texas-1
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Texas Tech's chart is like a nice, rolling hill, few if any big surprises win or lose. Not only that, but their résumé speaks of consistency, too: No losses to non-tournament teams; no losses to 5-seed or worse opponents, period; and only a few wins better than an 8-seed. The Red Raiders definitely play within a range. Even with 10 losses, they have lost to a 1-seed twice, a 2-seed, 5 times to 3-seeds, and once to a 4-seed. Even a couple of long covid breaks—due to other programs canceling games—didn't affect their performance.
Texas Tech has four starters at double figures—two just barely—led by Matt McClung at 15.7 ppg. Against Utah State Texas Tech's (lack of) height could be an issue. They play a very small lineup, and have only one player over 6-7 and he plays a few minutes a game.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): (6)San Diego St.+12, (6)San Diego St.+5
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(10)VCU-16, (6)BYU-3, =(6)San Diego St.-11
- Other losses (5): =South Dakota St.-24, Colorado St.-8, @UNLV-3, @Boise St.-9, @Boise St.-4
Overview: Utah State got off to a rocky start with blowout losses to VCU and South Dakota State but a week later they were playing BYU close and soon embarked on an 11-game win streak that included two victories over 6-seed San Diego State. They ran into some turbulence eventually and never quite recaptured that form, save for a few games near the end of the season. There was a Covid pause probably due to their team which might account for the back-to-back losses to Boise State, but that after the win streak ended.
The Aggies' leading scorer (15.1) and rebounder (10.0) is 7-0 center Neemias Queta, who also averages 3.4 blocks per game, #3 in the nation. He's a little raw on offense but he anchors their tough defense and helps make Utah State a great rebounding team on both sides of the court.
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Game Analysis: Utah State definitely presents some problems for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are a short team and they're going to need to find a way to stop him underneath. But his offense isn't the disrupting part of his game, it's his ability to defend the goal. Texas Tech doesn't take a lot of 3s, they live by the 2-point shot, and even 6-2 McClung likes to go to the bucket amidst the giants for layups. He might not be able to do that against Queta, and the Raiders might find themselves having to shoot the 3 more.
Utah State isn't very good on offense but they might get a lot of 2nd opportunities this game; they're a great offensive rebounding team while Texas Tech lags on defensive rebounds.
Vegas Line:
Texas Tech by 5
Power rating: spread
Texas Tech by 4.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Texas Tech: 62.6%
Utah State: 37.4%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Texas Tech: 55.6%
Utah State: 44.4%
Texas Tech by 3.0
As we said, on paper it's Texas Tech. They're consistent and they beat the teams they should beat, and we expect about the same 5-point win Vegas does. The odds narrow a little bit with recent play but not much.
Both teams had an unusual first two games; Utah State's were their worst, Texas Tech's maybe their best. Excluding all four of those ancient games from the comparisons makes it even closer, about 1.5 points. But still doesn't put Utah State over the top.
Bottom line: There are a lot of reasons Utah State could win this game, and it's not a bad 6- vs. 11- upset pick. But we can't quite pull the trigger against Texas Tech's reliable performance. We reserve the right to revisit this pick before Friday :)
Final prediction: Texas Tech 65, Utah State 63
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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