All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
BYU Cougars
Seed: 6
Record: 20-6
Conference: West Coast
vs.
UCLA Bruins
Seed: 11
Record: 18-9
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
This game will be a good test of the play-in 11-seed's magical abilities; fluke or fact?
BYU UCLA
Power Ratings
Strength: #27 Strength: #46
Pomeroy: #24 Pomeroy: #43
Offense: #28 Offense: #18
Defense: #26 Defense: #95
BPI: #29 BPI: #42
LRMC: #28 LRMC: #47
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #199/#148 Tempo Total/Off: #332/#307
SOS: #81 SOS: #43
Consistency: #132 Consistency: #53
Str x Consistency: #20 Str x Consistency: #32
2nd half season: #27 2nd half season: #62
Last 6 games: #16 Last 6 games: #46
Road Strength: #6 Road Strength: #67
Injury Modifier: #24 Injury Modifier: #48 (-Smith)
The Cougars are a consensus top 30 team, rankings in the 20s in all four power ratings; they even rank in the 20s in both offense and defense. How's that for consistency? There's a narrow range for UCLA, too—mid 40s across the board. Their defense bucks the trend at #86 but their offense is a good match for BYU's D.
UCLA plays pretty slow in general and that probably means BYU will follow as they have a middling tempo. Both teams are pretty consistent, as we'll see UCLA is the same winning or losing lately.
BYU seemed to up their game recently, but that small sample obviously has to be investigated further, as does their #6 ranking as a road team. UCLA sagged in the 2nd half of the season but their last 6 games are very steady, and very average for themselves.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): @(11)Utah St.+3, @(6)San Diego St.+10, (16)Texas Southern+16
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(6)USC-26, @(1)Gonzaga-17, (1)Gonzaga-11, =(1)Gonzaga-10
- Other losses (2): Boise St.-4, @Pepperdine-3
Overview: BYU played well early against bad teams but weren't ready for fellow 6-seed USC who beat them 79-53 in Connecticut. They lost to Boise State at home and things weren't looking all that great. But from then on, BYU went 15-4 only losing to two teams: Pepperdine, 76-63, and 1-seed Gonzaga three time. The first meeting, on the road, was an 86-69 blowout; the 2nd at home was a lot close, 82-71. The meeting in the WCC championship game ended up 88-78 but was closer than the score indicates.
BYU is led on offense by Alex Barcello with 15.9 points per game while 7-0 center Matt Haarms anchors the defense underneat (2.0 blocks per game). The D really focuses on not allowing good shots and rebounding the misses. On offense as always the Cougars are a good shooting team from the 2 or the 3. Barcello is making 48.6% of his attempts, good enough for 10th best in the nation.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): (5)Colorado+3, (12)Oregon St.+5, (11)Michigan St.+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(6)San Diego St.-15, @(2)Ohio St.-7, @(6)USC-18, @(5)Colorado-9, @(7)Oregon-8, (6)USC-1, =(12)Oregon St.-OT
- Other losses (2): @Stanford-OT, @Washington St.-8
Overview: Like many tournament teams, it seems, UCLA started their season laying an egg or two. They lost to 6-seed San Diego State 73-58 in the opener, then needed three overtimes to beat Pepperdine. But they began playing really well after that, winning 10 of their next 11, the sole loss to Ohio State, and a win over 5-seed Colorado. Then they hit a rough patch, losing 3 of 4; won four straight; lost four straight, and stumbled into the tournament where they beat the Spartans in overtime.
What do we make of their recent 4-loss skid? Not much. They fell to 5-seed Colorado on the road, 7-seed Oregon on the road, 6-seed USC by a point, and 12-seed and eventual Pac-12 champ Oregon State in overtime. None of those were bad games, they just weren't great; neither was their performance vs. Michigan State, even though that was a win.
The Bruins leading scorer is Johnny Juzang at 14.0 points per game; #2 was Chris Smith but he was lost early in the season with a torn ACL. UCLA shoots the 3 pretty well but they shoot them at a low rate. Across the board their offense looks good on paper while the defense doesn't, and this is reflected in their results. They do rebound well on both sides of the court, though.
Juzang scored 23 while Jaime Jaquez Jr dumped in 27 to lead the Bruins to their overtime victory.
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Game Analysis: It does appear that BYU is a pretty good road team, as some of their best performances were away from home, such as beating Portland 105-60 and Pacific 80-52, but we can't read too much into those games. And even though BYU looks pretty solid over the last 8 games or so, a couple of those games are pretty suspect; the Cougars beat San Francisco at home just 79-73, and needed overtime to beat Pepperdine to reach the WCC final. It's hard to say if they're really peaking now, but the Gonzaga loss might be an indication that they've improved.
UCLA lost four straight to end the season. They snapped that with an overtime win, beating Michigan State to reach the "real" tournament. Can a team that rolled into town on a four-game losing streak turn around and upset a 6-seed? The 11-seed play-in teams have a history of pulling off the upset, and not all of them were doing well before the tournament. 2011 VCU had lost 5 of their last 8; they made the Final Four as a play-in team. So had USC when they won their 11-seed play-in game in 2017 and made the round of 32. Syracuse, too in 2018, and they made the Sweet Sixteen. None of these teams carried a 4-game losing streak into the tournament but the Bruins only lost 4 of their last 8...!
The Bruins match up pretty well with the Cougars on offense; they can rebound well and shoot well, and won't have to worry much about turnovers. On defense defending against BYU's 3-point shooting is going to be a challenge. The team's heights are an interesting comparison, too. Both teams start 5-11 point guards, while UCLA is a bit taller at the other guard positions. BYU is taller overall due to 7-3 Matt Haarms at center, where UCLA's tallest player is 6-9.
Vegas Line:
BYU by 3
Power rating: spread
BYU by 3.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
BYU: 61.4%
UCLA: 38.6%
Recent game performance (last 6):
BYU: 63.9%
UCLA: 36.1%
BYU by 5.4
BYU is a slight favorite, but our numbers give UCLA an almost 40% chance to win; that's slightly above the historical rate for 11-vs.6-seed upsets, though below the 46% rate for play-in 11 teams so far.
Bottom line: This should be an easy upset to take, just because it's a play-in 11-seed and those have been potent—until last year, when both play-in teams lost. It seems that BYU is better on paper by any ranking, but the difference is just a 3-pointer here or there, so it's not even really an upset. The fact that UCLA was on a 4-game skid is hard to swallow, but they didn't play bad during that time. And their 2nd half comeback against Michigan State was impressive and might carry over. We still believe in the 11-seed play-in phenomenon!
Final prediction: UCLA 70, BYU 67
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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