All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Villanova Wildcats
Seed: 5
Record: 16-6
Conference: Big East
vs.
Winthrop Eagles
Seed: 12
Record: 23-1
Conference: Big South
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TNT
This will be a real battle of the tempos, with slow-as-molasses Villanova taking on lightning speed Winthrop.
Villanova Winthrop
Power Ratings
Strength: #10 Strength: #106
Pomeroy: #12 Pomeroy: #91
Offense: #9 Offense: #120
Defense: #68 Defense: #70
BPI: #7 BPI: #86
LRMC: #21 LRMC: #43
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #320/#297 Tempo Total/Off: #11/#8
SOS: #32 SOS: #297
Consistency: #201 Consistency: #84
Str x Consistency: #13 Str x Consistency: #93
2nd half season: #17 2nd half season: #112
Last 6 games: #28 Last 6 games: #77
Road Strength: #39 Road Strength: #125
Injury Modifier: #68(-Gillespie) Injury Modifier: #106
According to some of the power ratings Villanova is a way underseeded 5-seed. The LRMC thinks 5 is about right for the Wildcats but Strength and Pomeroy think they're about a 3 or 4-seed, and the BPI might have given them a 2-seed! So WInthrop has its work cut out for it, even though their defense is roughly as efficient as Villanova's. The Wildcat offense is top ten while the Eagles aren't in the top 100.
The marquee comparison here is tempo: Villanova plays at a super slow pace on offense and defense, while Winthrop pushes the ball. Something's gotta give! Apart from that the numbers that stick out are the discrepancy in Strength of Schedule, and Villanova's injury modifier, which in this case is just how they did in their last two games without Collin Gillespie.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(16)Hartford+34, @(3)Texas+4, @(12)Georgetown+13, (12)Georgetown+10, (7)Connecticut+8, (5)Creighton+12
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(10)Virginia Tech-OT, @(5)Creighton-16, =(12)Georgetown-1
- Other losses (3): @St. John's-11, @Butler-12, @Providence-2
Overview: Villanova had a rough first 3 games, losing to 10-seed Virginia Tech in overtime. But they beat future 16-seed Hartford 87-53 to start a 9-game winning streak, beating the likes of 3-seed Texas, 12-seed Georgetown and...six other non-qualifiers. The win streak spanned a long layoff from December 23 to January 19 due to Covid (between games 9 and 10. The layoff didn't seem to affect them much, but several weeks later the random bad losses started to happen. First St. John's beat them 70-59, then Creighton blasted them 86-70, and then it was Butler's turn, 73-61. In-between these they played great, beating Marquette by 32, St. John's by 23, and Creighton by 12. But without Collin Gillespie they fell to Providence and Georgetown in their last two outings.
Villanova is led by four scorers in double figures, and it's likely two of them won't play in the tournament. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (15.7 ppg, 8.3 rebounds) is fine, but #2 scorer Collin Gillespie (14.0) is out, and likely will be joined by #3 scorer Justin Moore (12.6). That will really hurt them at the point guard position.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(13)UNC Greensboro+8
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (1): UNC Asheville-2
Overview: Winthrop played 24 games and won 23 of them, what more do you want? They're not Gonzaga. After all, Gonzaga got a #1 seed while Winthrop loses a single game and gets knocked to #11. Their schedule might have had something to do with that, of course—they only played one tournament-bound team, UNC Greensboro, and beat them 75-67 in their very first outing. Only one team beat the Eagles, and on the chart you can almost see it coming, as their performance wanes until—bam! A 57-55 loss at home, the day after they beat the same team 84-80. Maybe that was the kick in the pants they needed because since then they've taken care of business, especially in the last three games where they won the Big South tournament.
Four Winthrop players just barely average double-digits, led by Chandler Vaudrin's 12.2; Vaudrin also leads in rebounds (7.2), assists (6.9), and steals (1.3).
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Game Analysis: Tempo control will be the main point of contention here. Will Winthrop be able to impose a run and gun game on the slow-paced Wildcats? Can the Eagles deal with a good team after playing patsies all year? Those are important questions, but the issue of injuries has become more important.
The big news in this game is Collin Gillespie's season-ending injury; without him the Wildcats lost two games and played significantly below par. In case there's any doubt this is a problem for Villanova, Justin Moore is probably out of the game, too. Winthrop was already a popular upset pick, and that's only going to spur it along.
And it's not without reason that Winthrop is a popular pick. They're 23-1. Against a very easy schedule, yes, but 23-1 is hard to do no matter what. Villanova plays essentially a 7-man rotation, and now that's down to five regulars. Meanwhile Winthrop plays 11 players regularly. Villanova is still capable of beating Winthrop, even blowing them out, but it's a much tougher proposition.
Vegas Line:
Villanova by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Villanova by 12.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Villanova: 81.3%
Winthrop: 18.8%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Villanova: 66.7%
Winthrop: 33.3%
Villanova by 7.2
Vegas is on top of all the injury news, of course, and the line is currently 6 1/2 points, whereas the Strength power rating suggests the spread would be 12 1/2 if Villanova were healthy. Pomeroy, which wouldn't factor in player loss either, has Villanova by 10. The BPI, which purportedly takes injuries into account, lists Villanova by 11.6 so they probably haven't done any adjustment.
12-seeds have a 36% chance to win historically so Winthrop's 19% is pretty sorry, but it reflect's Villanova's strength during the season. The "Last 6" numbers factor in two of Villanova's games without Gillespie but don't address Moore's absence. Note that the 7.2 point result is very close to the new Vegas line.
If we just use Villanova's last two games, it's still about a 5-point win for the Wildcats. But assuming the Eagles can play the way they did in their tournament, things change. All this means is that there is a path, and with Moore out, the Wildcats might be even more compromised.
Bottom line: Let's face it, the Wildcats should still be the favorite, even missing two starters. But that's why it's called an upset, and there is definitely justification for going with Winthrop.
Final prediction: Winthrop 78, Villanova 72
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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