All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 5
Record: 18-8
Conference: SEC
vs.
Oregon State Beavers
Seed: 12
Record: 17-12
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 4:30 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TNT
The 5s vs 12s are always interesting cases, this one no exception.
Tennessee Oregon State
Power Ratings
Strength: #12 Strength: #82
Pomeroy: #21 Pomeroy: #85
Offense: #71 Offense: #65
Defense: #4 Defense: #117
BPI: #12 BPI: #87
LRMC: #24 LRMC: #77
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #233/#173 Tempo Total/Off: #315/#318
SOS: #46 SOS: #79
Consistency: #312 Consistency: #314
Str x Consistency: #27 Str x Consistency: #98
2nd half season: #43 2nd half season: #47
Last 6 games: #33 Last 6 games: #29
Road Strength: #33 Road Strength: #68
Injury Modifier: #17 Injury Modifier: #82
The Strength power rating and BPI both have Tennessee a borderline top 10 team, while Pomeroy and LRMC view the Volunteers as a more pedestrian, borderline-top 25 squad. Either way they outclass the Beavers, who aren't that far inside the top 100 from a full-season vantage point. The interesting part is the breakdown between offense and defense: Tennessee has one of the nation's best defenses while their offense lags greatly. The Beavers are more offensive minded, meaning their weak defense can't really take advantage of UT's offensive woes. Based just on this, it's going to be a tough challenge for Oregon State.
But a few things tilt in their favor. They run a very slow tempo which should keep scoring down and the game relatively closer. And both teams are very low in consistency, or very high in inconsistency, which "shakes things up" and is more likely to lead to an outlier case such as an Oregon State upset win. And third, both teams' recent play—in the 2nd half of the season and the last 6 games—find the two are nearly identical in Strength. Closing the gap from #82 to #12 isn't easy, but Tennessee is worse and Oregon State better since mid-January, and it could make for a tossup game.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): (5)Colorado+9, (16)Appalachian St.+41, @(9)Missouri+20, (3)Arkansas+5, (3)Kansas+19, (7)Florida+11, =(7)Florida+12
- Losses to tournament teams (5): (2)Alabama-8, @(7)Florida-26, (9)Missouri-9, @(8)LSU-13, =(2)Alabama-5
- Other losses (3): @Mississippi-2, Kentucky-15, @Auburn-5
Overview: Tennessee started like gangbusters, beating 5-seed Colorado in their opener, then dominating future 16-seed Appalachian State 79-38. They beat Tennessee Tech 103-49 and Saint Joseph's 102-66. Even 6-seed Missouri fell to the Vols by 20 points. But the rest of the SEC season wasn't so forgiving, and after a 4-1 start Tennessee was crushed 75-49 by Florida and lost to Missouri at home. They finished a respectable 10-7 but suffered some more bad losses like the 70-55 home loss to 9-16 Kentucky.
Tennessee's offense features very balanced scoring with 7 players above 8 points per game led by Jaden Springer's 12.5. But it's their defense which wins games for them; 6-6 Yves Pons (8.9ppg) averages almost 2 blocked shots per game. Tennessee plays a small guard-oriented lineup, and with 6-9 John Fulkerson's status in doubt for the tournament Pons will often be the tallest player on the court. The Vols managed to give Alabama a strong test without Fulkerson so his absence won't necessarily impede them, but it doesn't help if he's gone.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (6)USC+2, @(7)Oregon+11, =(11)UCLA+OT, =(7)Oregon+11, =(5)Colorado+2
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(6)USC-13, @(11)UCLA-5, @(5)Colorado-29, (5)Colorado-4, (7)Oregon-13
- Other losses (7): @Washington St.-4, Wyoming-3, Portland-OT, Stanford-10, Arizona-34, @Arizona-9, @Arizona St.-2
Overview: Before the Pac-12 tournament, wins over USC and Oregon in games 12 and 13 were all Oregon State could claim on its résumé, which certainly wasn't Big Dance worthy. But in three days they added UCLA, Colorado, and another win over Oregon to their list. 17-12 might seem borderline for an NCAA tournament team but it sure beats 7-9, which is what the Beavers were on February 20th.
Oregon State is led by guard Ethan Thompson who averages 15.3 points per game; he also leads the team in assists and steals. Forward Warith Alatishe is 3rd in points at 9.9 and leads with 8.5 rebounds.
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Game Analysis: Watching Tennessee you can see their defensive emphasis; on offense they can be sloppy and make poor passes, but they seem locked in on defense, and Pons is a dangerous shot blocker even at 6-6 (he had 9 blocks against Florida in their SEC tournament win).
Oregon State can't be judged by their full-season performance. In the Pac-12 tournament they played like a team with everything to gain, knowing they'd need a title to keep their season alive, and they found a way to do it despite the shortcomings, particularly on defense, that held them back all season.
Tennessee definitely has the advantage when comparing offensive and defensive efficiency; though Oregon State may have a better offense than the Vols, it's matched up against Tennessee's #4 defense, and UT's own #71 offense should find success against the Beavers' #117 defense. From this point of view it looks like a perfect matchup for Tennessee, hiding their weaknesses and playing to their strength. A decent offensive rebounding team, the Vols should get 2nd chances against Oregon State's poor rebounding, and the poor-shooting Beavers—especially poor on 2-pointers—will have a tough time against Tennessee's D.
But this is March, so logic doesn't always rule. Note that Tennessee plays a small lineup; Oregon State plays a lot of guards too but they have more height at their disposal, and this could be a factor especially if John Fulkerson is absent.
Oregon State's slow tempo should keep the game close, but the most important factors are inconsistency and recent play. Both teams are so unpredictable in performance so most predictions can just be thrown out the window. Right now they're playing at a similar level, making this one a tossup.
Vegas Line:
Tennessee by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
Tennessee by 9.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Tennessee: 69.4%
Oregon State: 30.6%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Tennessee: 50%
Oregon State: 50%
Oregon State by 0.9
Our spread is a bit wider than Vegas, and we give Tennessee a slightly better chance (69%) to win than the typical 5-seed (64%). But when we compare very recent play it's a tossup—and Oregon State wins the "average" game by a point. So the question is, how important are the last 6 games compared the full season?
Bottom line: This is a game where you can justify an upset pick. Or you can justify the favorite winning pretty easily. It all depends—how far were you thinking Tennessee could go in the tournament? Don't throw them away if they're your Elite Eight pick. But if this game is just another game to you, go with the upset.
Final prediction: Oregon State 65, Tennessee 64
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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