All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Colorado Buffaloes
Seed: 5
Record: 22-8
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Georgetown Hoyas
Seed: 12
Record: 13-12
Conference: Big East
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 12:15 am Eastern
Region: East
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
Patrick Ewing brings his Hoyas into Indianapolis, and if they play the way they did against Creighton he'll be here for a while.
Colorado Georgetown
Power Ratings
Strength: #14 Strength: #58
Pomeroy: #17 Pomeroy: #55
Offense: #17 Offense: #85
Defense: #29 Defense: #41
BPI: #18 BPI: #65
LRMC: #7 LRMC: #71
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #280/#230 Tempo Total/Off: #113/#130
SOS: #59 SOS: #18
Consistency: #146 Consistency: #195
Str x Consistency: #14 Str x Consistency: #58
2nd half season: #30 2nd half season: #25
Last 6 games: #24 Last 6 games: #10
Road Strength: #41 Road Strength: #74
Injury Modifier: #14 Injury Modifier: #57
Colorado's numbers as a 5-seed are pretty good, especially the #7 rank in the LRMC. They aren't too imbalanced on offense and defense either, all of which could mean a solid run for the Buffaloes. Georgetown's full-season numbers are decent but unspectacular, with efficiency rankings that put them inferior to Colorado on both sides of the court.
Things get interesting when we look at partial calculations. Colorado has slipped a bit in the more recent games while Georgetown has exploded upward, ranking #25 in the 2nd half of the season and #10 over the last 6 games. How much of that was their insane performance against Creighton? We'll have to check the charts.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(15)Grand Canyon+10, @(6)USC+10, (7)Oregon+7, (12)Oregon St.+29, @(12)Oregon St.+4, (6)USC+18, (11)UCLA+9, =(6)USC+2
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(5)Tennessee-9, @(11)UCLA-3, @(7)Oregon-4, =(12)Oregon St.-2
- Other losses (4): @Arizona-14, @Washington-4, Utah-3, @California-9
Overview: Colorado had a solid season full of winning streaks and few losses. They only lost one game by double digits (Arizona) and only had one losing streak of two games (California and Oregon). The losses to Washington and Cal were uncharacteristic for the Buffaloes. Also uncharacteristic was their poor free throw shooting in the Pac-12 final, where they went 12 of 20 to knock their percentage from 83.3 down to 82.2, which puts them in 2nd place now. They had been on track to beat Harvard's 82.2%, now it's up in the air, and they have to compete with new #1 Oral Roberts!
Guard McKinley Wright (15.5 ppg, 5.6 assists) leads the Buffaloes who have two others in double figures. Other than stellar free throw shooting the Buffs boast solid three-point shooting and rebounding, and they take care of the ball well.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (3): @(5)Creighton+7, =(5)Villanova+1, =(5)Creighton+25
- Losses to tournament teams (7): (3)West Virginia-9, (5)Villanova-13, @(11)Syracuse-5, @(5)Villanova-10, (5)Creighton-15, (7)Connecticut-13, @(7)Connecticut-16
- Other losses (5): Navy-7, @St. John's-11, @Seton Hall-11, Marquette-4, @Butler-8
Overview: Georgetown fell into a rhythm early on: lose to all but the worst teams, and in a consistent manner. Thus their chart for the first half of the year was a boring sea of red at a mediocre level. But mid-season something happened: they beat Creighton 86-79 on the road. After that they still lost to the good teams but started beating the inferior ones, and raised their game on those occasions. It's almost like success made them better. They still lost to Villanova, Creighton, and UConn twice. But they were beating Butler, Seton Hall, and DePaul now. And when the Big East tournament started, they were on fire, crushing Marquette 68-49, edging Villanova, clubbing Seton Hall, and finally, demolishing 5-Creighton like no one could have imagined, 73-48.
The Hoyas are led by Jahvon Blair's 15.8 points; Qudus Wahab adds 12.4 and 8.0 rebounds. They shoot the 3 pretty well but are terrible at the 2, they turn the ball over a lot and don't create turnovers on defense...there is an endless list of things they've done wrong over the course of the season, but does that matter right now?
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Game Analysis: I went into this review expecting to dismiss Georgetown's win over Creighton as a fluke, the product of Patrick Ewing getting his team fired up. Turns out it didn't come out of nowhere, but the team's improvement had been building for some time, in steps. That means it is probably sustainable—the team really is good right now, and has a great chance to knock off the Buffaloes.
Which would be a shame because Colorado is a team I like and was going to advance, perhaps to the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight if the brackets worked out right. The Buffs play with purpose and intensity and don't let up. Evan Batty, their 6-8 260 pound power forward, shouldn't be able to move as fast as he does, and he personifies the team's effort level. Now I'm torn between dumping a team that could go places, and one that's so hot they almost can't lose.
If you look at the whole season it's no contest—the Buffaloes are far better. Looking at how their season ended is another matter—Georgetown played by far their best game, not letting up one iota, while Colorado lost the game at the free throw line which had been their bread and butter all season. The question is, where are both teams now? Do the Buffaloes shake it off? Does Georgetown, once outside of Ewing's fabled MSG, revert to previous form?
Vegas Line:
Colorado by 5
Power rating: spread
Colorado by 6.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Colorado: 68.4%
Georgetown: 31.6%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Colorado: 38.9%
Georgetown: 61.1%
Georgetown by 4.7
Georgetown's full-season odds are lower than the historical odds (36%) for a 12-seed in the first round. But using the arbitrary last 6 games a flip occurs and the Hoyas are the favorite. How much of the season do we count as relevant? The interesting this is if we count each team's last 4 games, and exclude the last game (Colorado's loss and Georgetown's huge win) the Hoyas still win comfortably.
Bottom line: I've been convinced. Sorry Colorado, if you win I'll pick you back up in the subsequent previews and usher you to the Sweet Sixteen and maybe beyond. But Georgetown looks like the real deal all of a sudden.
Final prediction: Georgetown 73, Colorado 65
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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