All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Virginia Cavaliers
Seed: 4
Record: 18-6
Conference: ACC
vs.
Ohio Bobcats
Seed: 13
Record: 16-7
Conference: MAC
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Channel: truTV
Virginia, with a Covid-positive player forcing team quarantine, takes on Ohio and Jason Preston.
Virginia Ohio
Power Ratings
Strength: #23 Strength: #90
Pomeroy: #11 Pomeroy: #78
Offense: #12 Offense: #29
Defense: #33 Defense: #174
BPI: #11 BPI: #98
LRMC: #32 LRMC: #84
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #357/#346 Tempo Total/Off: #131/#145
SOS: #50 SOS: #160
Consistency: #258 Consistency: #348
Str x Consistency: #31 Str x Consistency: #148
2nd half season: #33 2nd half season: #55
Last 6 games: #60 Last 6 games: #47
Road Strength: #12 Road Strength: #118
Injury Modifier: #22 Injury Modifier: #79 (+Preston)
The BPI and Pomeroy have Virginia near the top ten; our Strength power rating puts them just inside the top 25; and the LRMC puts them at #32. But wherever they are exactly, there's agreement that they're better than Ohio, who actually ranks in a narrower range from #78 to #98. Ohio's offense, however, is up to the task of scoring on Virginia's defense, since this is an odd year where the Cavs don't have a top ten D. Their own D is going to be sorely tested as Virginia is an offense-oriented team nowadays.
That doesn't mean everything's changed—the Cavaliers still play super-slow and methodical basketball, waiting for the perfect shot, and denying good shots to their opponent. Ohio is more tempo agnostic. One thing the Bobcats have going for them is unpredictability, and you'll understand that when you see their chart. And Ohio's been moving in the right direction, too, while Virginia has not—which means the chance of upset is very real. And that's not even considering Virginia's potential Covid woes.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): @(7)Clemson+35, (9)Georgia Tech+2, (11)Syracuse+23, @(9)Georgia Tech+8, (8)North Carolina+12, =(11)Syracuse+3
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(1)Gonzaga-23, @(10)Virginia Tech-14, @(4)Florida St.-21
- Other losses (3): =San Francisco-1, @Duke-1, N.C. State-7
Overview: Virginia had an easy early non-conference schedule but still managed to lose a game to San Francisco. Then they met Gonzaga and played about as well, getting crushed 98-75. They started 11-1 in the ACC, however, and started to look like a team that could defend it's national championship crown from 2019. But the Cavs dropped three straight, and before they could fully redeem themselves the positive Covid test ended their ACC tournament run.
Virginia is led by forward Sam Hauser who scores 16.0 ppg and hauls in 6.7 rebounds; 7-1 Jay Huff adds 13.1 points and 7.1 boards. Huff was a role player on the 2019 championship game and starting point guard Kihei Clark (9.5 ppg) still runs the team.
Now about their Covid situation. All we know is that one player tested positive after the Syracuse game, and it was a player who played against the Orange (sucks to be them). He might have played 4 minutes, he might have played 36 minutes. In other words they may be down a very good starter, but that's unlikely or Syracuse would have been forced to take measures, too, I would guess. The bottom line is they'll be missing someone and won't have practiced until the morning of the game. That can't help prep for March Madness.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): (15)Cleveland St.+55
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(1)Illinois-2
- Other losses (6): @Marshall-14, @Akron-20, Bowling Green-8, @Toledo-17, Kent St.-10, Buffalo-20
Overview: Ohio only played two games against tournament teams this year but both were pretty incredible. After two pedestrian wins the Bobcats faced future 1-seed Illinois and led 71-67 with 2 minutes left; they lost 77-75. In their next game they took out their frustrations on 15-seed Cleveland State 101-46, a literally off-the-charts performance. They went through a losing stretch before winning 7 in a row—broken up by a lengthy Covid pause—then fell to Buffalo, 88-66. In the MAC tournament, however, they played fantastic, beating arguably the three best MAC teams in a row: Kent State 85-63, Toledo 87-80, and Buffalo 84-69. In doing so they basically proved they are the best team in the league, at least right now.
The Bobcats have a star player, 6-4 junior Jason Preston, who is getting a lot of national attention these days. He averages 16.6 points per game, 6.8 rebounds, and 7.2 assists while shooting 53% and 40.8% on three-pointers. Four other Bobcats average double figures too.
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Game Analysis: Virginia is the defending national champions, but that was two years ago and only one key player from that team is back. They're still a great program but they're not at the same level as the teams from 2018 and 2019, particularly on defense.
That's still enough to win a first-round game against the MAC champion. At times Virginia has been one of the best teams in the country, the question is, are they right now? They slumped recently, and had a positive Covid test that has to put the team on edge.
Both teams shoot the lights out, rankings #11 and #13 in effective field goal percentage per Pomeroy (Virginia's defense is far better at defending the goal than Ohio's is, though). Don't expect either team to get a lot of offensive rebounds, either. Though both teams shoot well, if it comes down to free throws Virginia has a big advantage, 81.7% to 70.6%.
March Madness is when stars shine and this year's Ja Morant might be Ohio's Jason Preston. The whole team was fired up after their win over Buffalo, in fact they were celebrating with 1:30 to go—it almost looked like getting to the tournament was their prize, which isn't a good sign. But psychology is hard to extract from one game.
Vegas Line:
Virginia by 7
Power rating: spread
Virginia by 9.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Virginia: 69.9%
Ohio: 30.1%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Virginia: 36.1%
Ohio: 63.9%
Ohio by 2.2
Due a lot to their inconsistency (upside and downside), Ohio has a 30% chance to win this game, and if you consider recent play that goes up to nearly 64% ! Take that small sample with a grain of salt, but they played three great games in a row at the end. Add in Virginia's recent mini-slump and even if you ignore that, their Covid issues...this isn't a bad upset to take.
Bottom line: Like Kansas, I expected to take Virginia for one round but not have them going deep, just in case. But I think Ohio might take care of that for me.
Final prediction: Ohio 70, Virginia 65
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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