All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 4
Record: 18-9
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
North Texas Mean Green
Seed: 13
Record: 17-9
Conference: C-USA
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 7:25 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TNT
Purdue's the only team playing in-state this year, but this game is at an Indianapolis location, not West Lafayette.
Purdue North Texas
Power Ratings
Strength: #16 Strength: #74
Pomeroy: #13 Pomeroy: #71
Offense: #23 Offense: #119
Defense: #23 Defense: #42
BPI: #28 BPI: #69
LRMC: #20 LRMC: #60
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #274/#295 Tempo Total/Off: #350/#326
SOS: #7 SOS: #134
Consistency: #88 Consistency: #22
Str x Consistency: #12 Str x Consistency: #51
2nd half season: #10 2nd half season: #77
Last 6 games: #7 Last 6 games: #111
Road Strength: #14 Road Strength: #77
Injury Modifier: #10 (+Ivey) Injury Modifier: #70
Purdue's ranking ranges from 13 (Pomeroy) to 28 (BPI) but North Texas doesn't fare too poorly, in a 60 (LRMC) to 74 (Strength) range. The Boilermakers are "balanced" on offense and defense while the Mean Green are tough on D, poor on offense. In either case and on either end of the floor Purdue outclasses them.
Both teams are going to play at a slow pace, so don't look for explosiveness in this game. And no big surprises, either—these teams are playing at a pretty constant level. Purdue has upped their game considerably recently while North Texas hit a rough patch—but they've recovered, as we've seen. They also have some players out but it hasn't affected them. Purdue is stronger—top ten even—in games where Jaden Ivey has played; he missed 5 games early in the season.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(13)Liberty+13, (2)Ohio St.+7, (10)Maryland+3, @(11)Michigan St.+1, @(2)Ohio St.+2, (11)Michigan St.+10, (9)Wisconsin+4
- Losses to tournament teams (7): =(7)Clemson-11, @(2)Iowa-15, @(10)Rutgers-5, @(1)Illinois-8, (1)Michigan-17, @(10)Maryland-1, =(2)Ohio St.-OT
- Other losses (2): @Miami FL-4, @Minnesota-3
Overview: Purdue struggled to stay above water early, going 7-5 through January 2nd; 4 of those 5 losses were to tournament teams and they got a win over Ohio State. They got another win over the Buckeyes on a 4-game streak in January, then won 5 straight to round out the regular season. A final match with Ohio State ended in an overtime loss.
Purdue is an interesting team. Their leading scorer is 6-10 junior forward Trevion Willams (15.6 ppg), who shoots better from the floor (53%, all 2's) than from the free throw line (50.5%). Four other players average over 8 points per game including 7-4 Zach Edey who is becoming more of a force on the team. His development along with freshman Jaden Ivey (10.5) has helped the Boilermakers have a strong finish.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(3)Arkansas-15, @(3)West Virginia-12, @(8)Loyola Chicago-8
- Other losses (6): @Mississippi St.-6, @UTSA-8, Louisiana Tech-5, @Marshall-1, UAB-14, UAB-4
Overview: North Texas has played steady basketball all year, whether they were beating Mississippi Valley State 116-62 or losing by double digits to Arkansas, Mississippi State, and West Virginia. After those three games—and a loss to Loyola Chicago—the schedule got much easier and they won more games. That is, until a bad three-game stretch at the end including 2 home losses to UAB put their March Madness plans in doubt. Further complicating matters, they lost 6th man Rubin Jones for the C-USA tournament, but they played four solid games—including a wild final where they beat Western Kentucky in overtime.
Guard Javion Hamlet leads the team in scoring with 15.0 ppg, adding 4.5 assists. North Texas shoots the ball very well, particularly behind the 3-point line. They're vulnerable to steals, but they force turnovers on defense too—and their defense is much better than their offense.
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Game Analysis: Just because a team plays a slow tempo and has consistent results doesn't mean it can't go on wild runs within the context of a single game. For example, North Texas started the game against Western Kentucky on a 17-0 run. Then they fell victim to a 48-24 run by the Hilltoppers before forcing overtime and winning.
That game says a lot. Even being spotted 17 points didn't insure a victory. I'm afraid that this game might look like the 48-24 part without the 17-0 start. North Texas has to deal with two quality big men in Williams and Edey, and Ivey at guard, the latter two improving with every game and Williams already among the best in the Big Ten.
North Texas's hope to stay in it is the same thing that makes them a streaky team—three point shooting. They need to make their shots or it will be a long day. The alternative is to put the ball inside, and with Purdue's size that's not a great option.
Vegas Line:
Purdue by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
Purdue by 8.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Purdue: 75.6%
North Texas: 24.4%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Purdue: 100%
North Texas: 0%
Purdue by 17.8
Vegas pretty much agrees with our 8 point assessment, and we give North Texas a nearly 1 in 4 chance to beat 4-seed Purdue, odds that are just slightly higher than the normal 21% for a 13-seed. But over the past 6 games North Texas hasn't shown it can compete with the most recent gameplay from the Boilermakers; if they both play like that Purdue wins by nearly 20. That sample includes some really poor outings from North Texas and upside from Purdue so it might be a bit biased.
Bottom line: The last 3 games for Purdue and last 4 for North Texas pretty much lay out where they're at, it looks like. Averaging those makes for a 9 point Purdue win.
Final prediction: Purdue 66, North Texas 57
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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