All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Seed: 4
Record: 20-8
Conference: Big 12
vs.
Liberty Flames
Seed: 13
Record: 23-5
Conference: Atlantic Sun
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 6:25 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
It will be a battle of tempos as well as a look at the probably #1 draft pick.
Oklahoma State Liberty
Power Ratings
Strength: #37 Strength: #108
Pomeroy: #30 Pomeroy: #97
Offense: #54 Offense: #52
Defense: #22 Defense: #168
BPI: #36 BPI: #72
LRMC: #23 LRMC: #82
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #43/#27 Tempo Total/Off: #348/#338
SOS: #24 SOS: #329
Consistency: #13 Consistency: #97
Str x Consistency: #18 Str x Consistency: #96
2nd half season: #29 2nd half season: #108
Last 6 games: #13 Last 6 games: #98
Road Strength: #28 Road Strength: #144
Injury Modifier: #36 Injury Modifier: #107
While the numbers are fairly typical for a 4 vs 13 game, one thing is interesting: Pomeroy's Offensive efficiency stats indicate that the teams' offenses are roughly equal. Oklahoma State and Liberty are likely to score the same amount against a similar opponent, corrected for tempo. Of course, looking at the teams' pace—Oklahoma State's offense runs at #27, Liberty's at #338—Oklahoma State is bound to score more points. But on a given possession, Liberty is just as good. The difference is in the defense they will be facing: the Cowboys rank #22 while the Flames are #168.
That difference in defense and the conflicting tempos are the main story here. Other than that we see what we expect, the 4-seed ranking much better in power ratings (borderline top 25 vs. borderline top 100), and playing a much, much harder schedule (#24 to #329). Both teams show a lot of consistency, especially Oklahoma State, making an upset far less likely.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (13): (16)Texas Southern+20, (15)Oral Roberts+5, @(11)Wichita St.+3, @(6)Texas Tech+OT, (3)Kansas+5, (3)Arkansas+4, (3)Texas+OT, (6)Texas Tech+OT, @(8)Oklahoma+OT, (8)Oklahoma+4, @(3)West Virginia+5, =(3)West Virginia+3, =(1)Baylor+9
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(3)Texas-3, (3)West Virginia-3, (1)Baylor-15, @(3)Kansas-12, @(1)Baylor-11, =(3)Texas-5
- Other losses (2): TCU-1, @TCU-3
Overview: Fun fact: Oklahoma State has the most wins over the tournament field. Not Michigan (10), not Illinois (10), not Baylor (9), but Oklahoma State with 13. And they're a 4-seed? They've also lost to 6 tournament teams meaning that a whopping 19 out of their 28 games were against teams in the Big Dance; only 2-seed Ohio State matches that (and they only won 12). Other than getting swept by TCU there's not much to fault here.
The Cowboys, one of the youngest teams in the nation, are led by 6-8 freshman Cade Cunningham who averages 20.1 points per game. Cunningham normally plays as a forward but often takes the ball up the court and runs the offense at point, too. He's currently projected as the top pick in the draft; he can shoot the 3 and defend every position on defense.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): =(4)Purdue-13, @(9)Missouri-9
- Other losses (3): =TCU-4, @Lipscomb-7, @Stetson-6
Overview: Liberty's 23 wins include 4 against non-Division I competition, leading to a very poor Strength of Schedule but they did face some tough teams early on; they lost to Purdue and Missouri and beat Mississippi State and South Carolina in the pre-conference season. The Atlantic Sun schedule didn't improve their SOS, of course. The Flames won 12 straight from mid-January to early March, including a gut-check in their last game: facing ineligible North Alabama, they didn't need a win to get the league's bid but they fought hard anyway and got the win.
Liberty is led on offense by 5-9 point guard Darius McGhee (15.6 ppg), with only one other player in double figures in their slow-tempo offense. They shoot the ball very well, ranking in the top 10 on both 2's and 3s and they rarely turn the ball over. On defense Liberty uses a pac-line scheme, resulting in fairly good shooting defense but almost no blocks or steals.
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Game Analysis: There are really only two arguments for success by Liberty here: their tempo and their offense. And neither can really be counted on; Oklahoma State's fast tempo might offset Liberty's designs on a slow game, and Oklahoma State's defense certainly has a say in whether Liberty's offense can run as smooth as usual.
Liberty shoots the ball with great success, from the 3 point line to the free throw line. They don't rebound well on offense, but Oklahoma State's defensive rebounding isn't that great either. And who needs rebounds when you make all your shots? We'll give Liberty the benefit of the doubt and assume their offense can do pretty well against the Cowboys.
When Oklahoma State has the ball, it doesn't look like too much of a mismatch on paper. The Cowboys shoot pretty well, but Liberty defends the shot well. The Cowboys rebound well on offense, but so does Liberty on defense. Liberty's D isn't well-positioned to take advantage of Oklahoma State's problems, like blocks and steals, because they don't do that in the pac-line. But again, looking at basic stats that are unadjusted for competition, things look pretty even.
But then you look at where Liberty got those stats, and you see why their defense is ranked so low. And they'll be going against Cade Cunningham. How does a pac-line zone, run by the #168 defense deal with Cade Cunningham, who can play inside, drive the baseline, pass the ball, and shoot the three? Liberty is a very small team, and may have a 5-9 guard on Cunningham at times. They've faced good teams this season but not a player as good as Cade Cunningham.
Vegas Line:
Oklahoma State by 7 1/2
Power rating: spread
Oklahoma State by 8.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Oklahoma State: 74.2%
Liberty: 25.8%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Oklahoma State: 88.9%
Liberty: 11.1%
Oklahoma State by 12.8
Vegas and Strength both see a result in the single digits, with our game-comparison system giving Liberty a 1 in 4 shot at winning that's slightly above the 21% a 13-seed normally has. Most 13-seeds don't have a near-top-50 offense.
Bottom line: Oklahoma State is a very stable team, and they should take care of business. Plus they have Cade Cunningham.
Final prediction: Oklahoma State 78, Liberty 65
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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