All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 4
Record: 16-6
Conference: ACC
vs.
UNC Greensboro Spartans
Seed: 13
Record: 21-8
Conference: Southern
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 12:45 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhous, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: truTV
Florida State's guards will have their hands full with Isaiah Miller, but Greensboro has to deal with FSU's height.
Florida State UNC Greensboro
Power Ratings
Strength: #21 Strength: #114
Pomeroy: #15 Pomeroy: #100
Offense: #10 Offense: #129
Defense: #48 Defense: #67
BPI: #23 BPI: #89
LRMC: #35 LRMC: #55
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #84/#59 Tempo Total/Off: #174/#82
SOS: #48 SOS: #168
Consistency: #271 Consistency: #113
Str x Consistency: #29 Str x Consistency: #104
2nd half season: #18 2nd half season: #95
Last 6 games: #37 Last 6 games: #93
Road Strength: #51 Road Strength: #91
Injury Modifier: #20 Injury Modifier: #114
Whether Florida State is underseeded or overseeded depends on which power rating you ask; our Strength power rating and the BPI see them as more of a 5-6 seed, while Pomeroy (#15) think 4 is about right. The LRMC (#35) thinks they're way overseeded and should be an 8 or 9! For 13-seeds the numbers are usually all over the place, but it's a rare 13-seed that ranks #55 in a ranking as UNC Greensboro does in the LRMC. Basically the LRMC is saying: consider taking the upset.
Both teams play a pretty quick offensive tempo so that should be what happens. Though obviously FSU has a better strength of schedule, Greensboro's isn't that bad at #168. They're a fairly consistent team, too, while FSU is traditionally erratic and this year is no exception.
The Seminoles improved in the 2nd half of the season but that improvement has faltered in recent games; Greensboro has upped their game and maintained it, but there's still quite a gap. They also play well on the road, while FSU hasn't, which narrows the gap a bit more.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (7)Florida+12, (9)Georgia Tech+13, (8)North Carolina+7, (7)Clemson+19, (4)Virginia+21, =(8)North Carolina+3
- Losses to tournament teams (4): @(7)Clemson-10, @(9)Georgia Tech-11, @(8)North Carolina-8, =(9)Georgia Tech-5
- Other losses (2): UCF-12, @Notre Dame-10
Overview: Many teams had long breaks this season due to Covid, but FSU endured two such breaks. And unlike many teams, neither really seemed to affect their performance. The first break was after game 7 (a 77-67 loss at Clemson) on December 29. They played again on January 13 and won five straight, arguably their best play of the season; they demolished NC State 105-73 in their first game back and beat 8-seed North Carolina and 7-seed Clemson in this stretch. The 2nd Covid stop was after game 13, a 76-65 loss to Georgia Tech. They struggled a bit on their return, needing overtime to beat Wake Forest, but they won four straight in all including an 81-60 triumph over 4-seed Virginia. Whatever Leonard Hamilton, the players, or the university is doing is working; these were positive cases within the program, so they weren't practicing much if at all during the breaks.
The Seminoles are led by MJ Walker's 13.0 points per game and are the tallest team in the country, starting a lineup at 6-4, 6-5, 6-6, 6-8, and 7-1 center Balsa Koprivica, with 6-9 freshman Scottie Barnes (11.0 ppg) coming in at guard, often playing point. Barnes was ACC freshman of the year and 6th man of the year. The 'Noles are a great shooting team, particularly behind the arc, and #11 in offensive rebounds when they miss. Their only weaknesses are turnovers and defense in general where they lag in rebounding and don't force turnovers.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): (16)Norfolk St.+17
- Losses to tournament teams (1): =(12)Winthrop-8
- Other losses (7): =Duquesne-13, @Coppin St.-6, East Tennessee St.-10, Wofford-3, @Furman-19, @VMI-11, Western Carolina-1
Overview: UNC Greensboro started the year 1-3 with losses to 12-seed Winthrop, Duquesne, and Coppin State, not exactly the normal kickoff to a March Madness birth. They started winning, beating 16-seed Norfolk State 64-47 but their Southern Conference season got off to a rocky 1-2 start. That's when they hit their stride, winning seven conference games in a row. The bad losses popped up every few games after that, putting their title hopes in doubt but they won four straight at the end including their tournament run.
UNCGreensboro's star player is Isaiah Miller, a 6 foot senior guard averaging 19.3 points per game and 6.9 rebounds. He doesn't shoot the 3 well—or free throws—but he does everything else. Miller has a reported 47-inch vertical, drives to the bucket quickly, and has a smooth fadeaway jumper. The Spartans overall are a poor shooting team but they rebound well and don't turn the ball over; they're decent across the board on defense.
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Game Analysis: It's hard to say whether Florida State is slumping now or not, but losing 3 of their last 5 doesn't look good—particularly the "trap" game at Notre Dame where they couldn't claw their way back. Likewise, Greensboro has to avoid having one of the "dud" games they had during February if they want to avoid getting blown off the court.
Issue #1 for Greensboro is height. They have a 7-1 center, Hayden Koval, to match up with Koprivica, but that's not the height that bothers FSU opponents. Florida State's guards are 6-4 and 6-5, with a great 6-9 backup; that's the size of Greensboro's forwards. Greensboro's guards are 6-0 and 6-1. Isaiah Miller will have to use all of his 47-inch vertical to clear FSU's trees.
Greensboro's lack of 3-point shooting could be a factor. If they get behind there's not much of a path to get back into it quickly; if they get ahead, Florida State is a great 3-point shooting team. And if it gets close down the wire, Florida State is a much better free throw shooting team (74% to 68%). In particular, Miller is a poor free throw shooter (63%), and if FSU puts him on the line a lot, particularly down the stretch, it could be the difference.
Vegas Line:
Florida State by 10 1/2
Power rating: spread
Florida State by 11.8
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Florida State: 77.3%
UNC Greensboro: 22.7%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Florida State: 72.2%
UNC Greensboro: 28.8%
Florida State by 7.5
As usual, Vegas' line is about 1 point below our power rating spread, and their 10 1/2 point spread looks like a compromise between the full-season numbers and recent play, where FSU is about 7.5 points better. Greensboro pretty much matches the 21% historical odds for a 13-seed upset, with recent play giving them a small boost. In fact, over the last 3 games the teams are almost exactly even, suggesting that a close game is likely.
Bottom line: FSU's height, 3-point shooting, and free throw shooting are all big advantages, too much for one great player (Isaiah Miller) to overcome.
Final prediction: Florida State 74, UNC Greensboro 72
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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