All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Texas Longhorns
Seed: 3
Record: 19-7
Conference: Big 12
vs.
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Seed: 14
Record: 23-4
Conference: Southland
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 9:50 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: truTV
I believe this is the only first round matchup with in-state competitors. Not going to bother to check.
Texas Abilene Christian
Power Ratings
Strength: #22 Strength: #116
Pomeroy: #26 Pomeroy: #86
Offense: #21 Offense: #157
Defense: #36 Defense: #30
BPI: #22 BPI: #81
LRMC: #15 LRMC: #54
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #137/#62 Tempo Total/Off: #101/#109
SOS: #30 SOS: #342
Consistency: #46 Consistency: #340
Str x Consistency: #11 Str x Consistency: #156
2nd half season: #38 2nd half season: #79
Last 6 games: #25 Last 6 games: #72
Road Strength: #10 Road Strength: #174
Injury Modifier: #12 (Covid) Injury Modifier: #115
Pretty standard comparison between a 3-seed and a 14-seed, the 3-seed ranking in the 20s generally, the 14-seed in the 80s (or #54 or #116). The interesting thing is that according to Pomeroy Abilene Christian has the better defense! Since teams don't play defense at the same time this doesn't matter at all, but it's interesting. The Longhorns on defense have to defend against the #157 offense, while the Wildcats defend against Texas' #21 offense. When Texas has the ball, it's more like a second round game between a 3-seed and a 6-seed.
Now some discrepancies. Not in tempo, where the teams will generally be in harmony. But in strength of schedule, it's huge. Texas' Big 12 schedule was murderous while Abilene Christian had one of the easiest schedules in the country, playing four non-D-I schools and playing in one of the worst conferences. The other discrepancy is consistency. Texas is very consistent game to game; Abilene Christian is the opposite. The Wildcats want the game to be a random mess, it's the only way to give them a chance to win. But Texas is unlikely to cooperate by having a bad game; the onus is all on Abilene Christian to play waaayyyy on the upside.
When we exclude games Texas played during Covid issues, they rank near the top ten in Strength.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(8)North Carolina+2, (4)Oklahoma St.+3, @(3)Kansas+25, @(3)West Virginia+2, (3)Kansas+OT, @(8)Oklahoma+4, =(6)Texas Tech+1, =(4)Oklahoma St.+5
- Losses to tournament teams (7): (5)Villanova-4, (6)Texas Tech-2, (8)Oklahoma-1, (1)Baylor-14, @(4)Oklahoma St.-OT, (3)West Virginia-2, @(6)Texas Tech-9
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Texas jumped to a 10-1 start beating North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas, and West Virginia, falling only to 5-seed Villanova in that stretch. They lost to Texas Tech, then dropped three straight games during a period where they had several players and even coach Shaka Smart test positive for Covid. Though they never had a pause—just had players, including starters, sitting out—their level of play didn't seem to suffer much, but they lost three in a row and their next game against lowly Kansas State was just a 3 point win. After that they seemed to recover, winning five in a row (and the Big 12 title) at the end. Overall they were 8-7 against the tournament field with no losses outside of that. Pretty Smart!
Texas has balanced scoring led by Andrew Jones with 14.6 per game and two others in double figures. On offense they shoot well and rebound well but turn the ball over more than they should; on defense they force long possessions while denying good shot opportunities.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(6)Texas Tech-7, @(3)Arkansas-13
- Other losses (2): @Sam Houston St.-7, @Central Arkansas-2
Overview: Abilene Christian had a year of up and down performances, to say the least, but they ended on a high note for sure. Their first game was probably their 2nd best as they beat East Tennessee State 70-47 and won the #BeachBubble tournament in Florida. Their 4th game was a 30-point win over Howard Payne that apparently doesn't go down well with our power rating. Neither did their 82-44 win over Dallas Christian. Those teams are both non-Div-I and very, very bad. They lost games with Texas Tech and Arkansas during that span, too, by far the best teams they faced. and following a loss to Sam Houston State they went on an 8-game winning streak followed by a 4-game run to capture the Southland title. They did it in style, beating Lamar 93-71 and Nicholls State 79-45, a performance they wish they could bottle up and apply to their first round game.
The Wildcats have three starters in double figures led by 7-0 center Kolton Kohl with 12.3 points per game. 10 players average 10 minutes or more and so many of them are short, ACU ranks as the #339 team in height despite having a 7-footer (their point guard is 5-7, too). On defense the Wildcats are amazing: #1 in turnovers (#4 in steals), #12 in opponents' field goal %—it's no wonder they rank 30th in Pomeroy. Of course those other rankings are due to their low level of competition, but it shows they can get the job done.
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Game Analysis: Here we have a game expected to be competitive on one side of the court but not the other. When Texas has the ball they might struggle to score against Abilene Christian's defense, with guards that steal the ball and a 7-foot center underneath. On the other side, we have Abilene Christian's so-so offense—going up against the Texas D. The Wildcats are going to find out what it feels like to play against their own selves on defense!
Sometimes, though, these games aren't a tale of two sides of the court. If Texas struggles on offense, their own defense might lag and we could see a close game. Abilene Christian has played their share of great basketball—for example their title game win over Nicholls State, a better performance than only a couple of Texas's outings. Normally a big underdog needs to play on the upside as much as possible and hope the favorite plays a bad game, but that might not be the case here.
Texas has an answer for Kolton Kohl—6-10 Jericho Sims, the team's leading shot-blocker and rebounder. The rest of the team will use their height advantage...to good advantage, I presume.
Vegas Line:
Texas by 9
Power rating: spread
Texas by 11.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Texas: 77.5%
Abilene Christian: 22.5%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Texas: 77.8%
Abilene Christian: 22.2%
Texas by 7.5
More general agreement from Vegas and Strength, and whether we use the full season or just the last six games, Texas has about a 78% chance of winning, much in line with the 79% historical value for a 4-seed. Due to ACU's big last game, the average margin falls to 7.5.
Bottom line: We know which Texas will show up: same one that always does. Which Abilene Christian will show, the one from their final game or the one from four games previous (a loss to #332 Central Arkansas). That's about a 40-point swing. We're going with Texas to win the game, but ACU will give it their all.
Final prediction: Texas 70, Abilene Christian 63
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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