All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 3
Record: 20-8
Conference: Big 12
vs.
Eastern Washington Eagles
Seed: 14
Record: 16-7
Conference: Big Sky
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 1:15 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
Kansas had to drop out of their conference tournament and go into the Big Dance with a "smaller group." Will it affect their performance against Eastern Washington?
Kansas Eastern Washington
Power Ratings
Strength: #20 Strength: #113
Pomeroy: #22 Pomeroy: #110
Offense: #59 Offense: #86
Defense: #6 Defense: #152
BPI: #19 BPI: #103
LRMC: #13 LRMC: #88
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #186/#78 Tempo Total/Off: #28/#30
SOS: #35 SOS: #215
Consistency: #167 Consistency: #43
Str x Consistency: #17 Str x Consistency: #91
2nd half season: #16 2nd half season: #111
Last 6 games: #12 Last 6 games: #118
Road Strength: #26 Road Strength: #105
Injury Modifier: #19 Injury Modifier: #112
Kansas is its usual strong team, ranking around #20 with LRMC putting them at #13. Eastern Washington's rankings center around #100, with LRMC again giving them the best boost at #88. Kansas has a top ten defense but their offense is fairly poor for a top 3 seed—Eastern Washington is almost as good as Kansas on offense, but their defense is poor.
Both teams run a fairly quick tempo on offense so we might see a faster overall pace. Kansas, of course, has played a tough schedule while Eastern Washington's SOS is below average for D-I. The Eagles' consistency works against them here, too, as an outlier game on the upside is less likely given their consistency. Kansas picked up their game in the 2nd half of the season and in particular down the stretch; they would make a good pick to go deep in the tournament if not for their Covid issues.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (5)Creighton+1, @(6)Texas Tech+1, (3)West Virginia+14, (8)Oklahoma+4, (4)Oklahoma St.+12, (6)Texas Tech+6, (1)Baylor+13, =(8)Oklahoma+7
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(1)Gonzaga-12, (3)Texas-25, @(4)Oklahoma St.-5, @(1)Baylor-8, @(8)Oklahoma-7, @(5)Tennessee-19, @(3)West Virginia-12, @(3)Texas-OT
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Kansas kicked off the season with a 102-90 loss to 1-seed Gonzaga, but 9 straight wins including 5-seed Creighton, 6-seed Texas Tech and 3-seed West Virginia put the Jayhawks at #3 in the AP poll. But after a 10-day layoff—not Covid-related—Kansas hosted 3-seed Texas and lost 84-59, and stumbled a lot from there, losing five of their next nine games. All of those losses were to tournament teams—4, 1, 8, 5, and 3—but three of their four wins were over TCU and Kansas State. Things changes again and the Jayhawks went on an incredible run, winning 8 of their last 9, beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, handing Baylor their first loss, and beating Oklahoma before having to withdraw from the Big 12 tournament due to Covid issues.
Kansas' leading scorer is Ochai Agbaji at 14.2 point per game; #2 is 6-10 David McCormack (13.4), who is questionable for the game; #3 Jalen Wilson (12.1) is the team's leading rebounder at 8.2 per game, and he is not likely to play. Reserve guard Tristan Enaruna is also questionable. These losses and potential losses might not have an effect on their first round game, but going forward it's a concern. UPDATE: McCormack will play, while Wilson is gone until at least the Round of 32.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(7)Oregon-17
- Other losses (6): @Washington St.-3, @Arizona-3, @Saint Mary's-5, Southern Utah-5, @Northern Colorado-2, Idaho St.-5
Overview: Eastern Washington got most of their losses out of the way early in the season, starting 3-6 before a 13-1 run. They played a trio of Pac-12 teams and lost against all three, though they gave both Washington State and Arizona a scare before Oregon beat them solidly, 69-52. St. Mary's was the last "good" (top 100) team they played before the Big Sky season began, and they played the Gaels tough. Returning from a month-long covid pause, they dropped close games to Southern Utah and Northern Colorado to start 2-2 in conference but lost only one more after that, winning big most of the time. The biggest was their 78-50 beatdown of Montana on the semi-finals of the Big Sky tournament.
The Eagles are led by forward Tanner Groves who averages 16.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. They shoot the ball very well, make their free throws at a near 80% clip, and rarely turn the ball over. Their weakness is offensive rebounding; they rebound well on defense, but don't force turnovers or block shots often.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: The Jayhawks will be without Jalen Wilson, their #3 scorer and top rebounder, and might be missing their #2 scorer and rebounder. Coach Bill Self has stated that McCormick and Enaruna will play, but we can assume Jalen Wilson won't. [Update: Wilson is out this game, while McCormick will play; Enaruna is also out (2.8 ppg; he plays fewer than 10 minutes normally)]
Eastern Washington endured two separate Covid pauses, the first one for 26 days. Coach Shantay Legans said his team "sputtered out at the end" of two bad conference losses following the break. Kansas will have been off for 11 days so the effect won't be as great, and they are presumably practicing—minus three players—in Indianapolis. But there will definitely be some effect.
It's hard to know what to make of each team's recent performance. Kansas had an outlier game in beating Baylor, but Baylor wasn't themselves at the time. They had a poor 5-point win over UTEP, but who can blame them for a letdown after the Baylor win? Eastern Washington also had an outlier upside game in the Montana win, but had a bad loss to Idaho on March 3. That was their first game in 11 days, though that break wasn't due to Covid protocols. Their consistency has certainly dropped in the last few weeks, which is probably a good thing—it's the only way they have a chance.
The Eagles might be a popular upset pick due to Kansas' issues, but they wouldn't make a good upset pick any other time, really. They've shown they can keep it close against decent teams but not close the deal. The Jayhawks' issues make me less likely to advance the team deep, but I think they're safe for the first round.
Vegas Line:
Kansas by 10 1/2
Power rating: spread
Kansas by 11.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas: 82.8%
Eastern Wash: 17.2%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Kansas: 80.6%
Eastern Wash: 19.4%
Kansas by 15.3
Once again, the Vegas spread is basically the Strength spread minus ~1.5 points; it appears that no Covid concerns have been factored in. By full-season or recent performance, Kansas is an 80%+ favorite, just shy of the historical 85% odds for a 3-seed. A couple of Eastern Washington's recent dud games push the average result to 15 points.
Bottom line: We're not counting Kansas out just yet. They might even be spurred on by the adversity.
Final prediction: Kansas 73, Eastern Washington 60
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
Comments