All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Arkansas Razorbacks
Seed: 3
Record: 22-6
Conference: SEC
vs.
Colgate Raiders
Seed: 14
Record: 14-1
Conference: Patriot
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 12:45 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: truTV
This will be one of the oddest first-round previews I've ever done, due to a team that is turning analytics upside-down in a strange season.
Arkansas Colgate
Power Ratings
Strength: #11 Strength: #9
Pomeroy: #18 Pomeroy: #84
Offense: #35 Offense: #43
Defense: #14 Defense: #140
BPI: #14 BPI: #44
LRMC: #18 LRMC: #16
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #17/#38 Tempo Total/Off: #25/#32
SOS: #74 SOS: #117
Consistency: #263 Consistency: #345
Str x Consistency: #19 Str x Consistency: #30
2nd half season: #9 2nd half season: #35
Last 6 games: #11 Last 6 games: #34
Road Strength: #24 Road Strength: #8
Injury Modifier: #12 Injury Modifier: #7
First let's get Arkansas out of the way: they rank in the 2nd 10 by most measures, with an excellent defense per Pomeroy. They like to play fast, are somewhat inconsistent, and are doing as well or perhaps a bit better in recent play (which makes sense as they've won 9 of their last 10 games). Nothing extraordinary.
Now Colgate. The Raiders have ranked in the top ten in Strength all season, and until recently they were #4 in the LRMC. We've written about the Colgate phenomenon and how the LRMC had them a Final Four candidate; suffice it to say it has a lot to do with them winning three games by 40+ points and, at that point, only playing three different teams. Pomeroy is completely unimpressed, putting the Raiders at #84, while the BPI is a compromise at #44.
Some of the other numbers bring them back to earth, too: their Consistency rank of #345 shows their ups and downs; when factored in, their Strength drops to #30. They're #35 in more recent play, too, since most of their giant blowouts happened early. We don't list Median Strength, but it can be a good measure as it naturally filters out blowout wins and losses; there, Colgate ranks 30th. Still good, but not great. And that's before addressing the limited action the entire Patriot League saw this year.
So while by Strength and LRMC this looks like a very valuable upset pick, a deeper dig reveals some shortcomings. And that's before we get to the "eye test" which we'll cover in a minute.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (13)North Texas+15, (15)Oral Roberts+11, (14)Abilene Christian+13, @(9)Missouri+OT, (7)Florida+11, (2)Alabama+15, (8)LSU+8, =(9)Missouri+6
- Losses to tournament teams (6): (9)Missouri-13, @(5)Tennessee-5, @(8)LSU-16, @(2)Alabama-31, @(4)Oklahoma St.-4, =(8)LSU-7
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Arkansas has an excellent record against the field, winning 5 games against SEC teams that made the cut and beating three other small-conference champs while they were at it. They also took their lumps in the SEC, including a stretch where they lost 4 of 5, but they turned their season around and won nine straight, 12 straight in-conference before losing to LSU in the SEC tournament. They didn't lose a game to a non-tournament team, nor did they lose to any team seeded lower than 9.
Moses Moody (17.4ppg) leads four scorers in double figures. The Razorbacks aren't reliant on shooting the 3, and don't shoot it particularly well, but they're above 50% on 2-pointers. On defense they're pretty good across the board.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (1): Army-2
Overview: Colgate's season is interesting enough and they've played few enough games that we can discuss all of them. The Raiders didn't play until January 2nd, when they beat Army 101-57 at home. The very next day, still at home, they lost to Army 75-73. I'm not sure I've seen such a discrepancy in play from one game to the next. I've heard of overconfidence before, but 46 points worth?
Next the Raiders played Boston U. twice on the road, winning by 7, then by 44. Next up Holy Cross, and Colgate won 95-55 and 96-87. In six games they'd achieved three 40+ point blowouts but had three close games with the same teams. With some games cancelled here and there Colgate would play Holy Cross twice more, winning by 11 in overtime and by 18 outright; Army twice more, winning by 10 and 9; and Boston twice, winning by 10 and 15. Three opponents in a 12-game season.
Their first Patriot tournament foe was Boston, and they made it 5-0 against the Terriers, 77-69. Bucknell provided a much-needed change of scenery and the Raiders exploded again with a 30-point win, 105-75, and won the league beating Loyola MD 85-72. The latter win tanked their LRMC ranking from Final Four to Sweet Sixteen level.
Colgate is led by Jordan Burns (17.0ppg/5.4 assists). Burns shoots over 40% on 3s while #2 scorer Jack Ferguson (12.6) makes just over 50% of his attempts; overall Colgate is the #5 shooting team in the country, #3 in threes, and they rarely turn the ball over. Great stats but again, remember that 13 of 15 games were against just 3 opponents, and they didn't play a single team from the tournament field.
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Game Analysis: Colgate ranks nearly last in consistency of performance, and watching them it's easy to see why. Their crazy swings in game-by-game performance are often echoed on the court, as they go up by 10 or 12, then see the lead evaporate, get ahead by 10-15 again but have to go into overtime where they win by 11.
I did watch Colgate a few times this year and I can't say they pass the "eye test" as a top ten team. When they are shooting well they could pass for a top 25 team but they seem to get sloppy and lazy, with players making a lot of mistakes while playing a fast pace. They manage to get a lead without looking good doing it, then they lose that lead from defensive lapses. Shooting the lights out on 3-pointers helps, but against their competition level a lot of teams would shoot the lights out.
I made a note that I couldn't see Colgate beating a 3-seed if they got a 14-seed, that they'd have to be a 13- or 12- for me to take a gamble with them. Unfortunately they got a 14-seed (despite a top ten NET ranking) and drew a very good opponent. The Raiders had back-to-back 40 point wins and if they can replicate those performances they could go to the Sweet Sixteen. But I think it's unlikely they'll play at that level facing their first foe from the top 100.
Ironically it might be Colgate's high-flying stats that are its undoing. Teams looking for an upset want to sneak up on their opponent, not post a top-ten NET ranking for everyone to see. Arkansas will likely come into the game curious about what kind of team they're going to be facing, not walking in overconfident. And they've faced three conference-winning qualifiers this year, a 13-, 14-, and 15-seed, and didn't have any trouble with looking past them, winning each game by double digits.
In any case it should be a fun game to watch as both teams like to play fast. We'll find out if Arkansas can shut down Jordan Burns, and whether the Hogs' defense can get turnovers against the stingy Raiders.
Vegas Line:
Arkansas by 9 1/2
Power rating: spread
Colgate by 1.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Arkansas: 53.1%
Colgate: 46.9%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Arkansas: 63.9%
Colgate: 36.1%
Arkansas by 5.8
Of course the number are weird with this one. When in doubt, look at Vegas since the line normally compresses all the facts and opinions into a hard-to-beat number; they have Arkansas by almost 10 points. Since Colgate outranks Arkansas in Strength, our power rating has the Raiders by a point.
The same power rating gives the Razorbacks a 53% chance to win, since so much of Colgate's advantage is stuffed into 40 point victories. And if we look at recent games instead, Colgate hasn't had those blowout wins lately, making Arkansas a solid favorite and nearly 6 point pick.
Bottom line: Colgate has a shot; all they have to do is replicate their early-season performances where they won by 44, 44, and 40 points. But that's unlikely; Colgate is going to have to adjust to a new level of opponent very quickly. On the other hand, Arkansas might find their lead has evaporated if the Raiders get hot behind the 3-point line. In the end the Razorbacks should be able to exploit Colgate's defensive weaknesses for a victory.
Final prediction: Arkansas 81, Colgate 76
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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