All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 2
Record: 21-9
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Seed: 15
Record: 16-10
Conference: Summit
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 3:00 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
Channel: CBS
Ohio State faces off against the nation's leading scorer. If you're itching to pick a 15 vs. 2 upset, that's reason enough.
Ohio State Oral Roberts
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 Strength: #162
Pomeroy: #7 Pomeroy: #152
Offense: #4 Offense: #74
Defense: #79 Defense: #285
BPI: #9 BPI: #156
LRMC: #9 LRMC: #119
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #247/#278 Tempo Total/Off: #47/#39
SOS: #2 SOS: #258
Consistency: #151 Consistency: #85
Str x Consistency: #8 Str x Consistency: #147
2nd half season: #8 2nd half season: #153
Last 6 games: #22 Last 6 games: #125
Road Strength: #9 Road Strength: #156
Injury Modifier: #9 Injury Modifier: #164
Typical of a 2 vs. 15 game, the numbers are one-sided; Oral Roberts is in the hundreds in the power ratings while Ohio State is in the single digits. There's one exception, though: Ohio State's defense is a downright stinky #79, while Oral Roberts' offense is a stellar #74. Obviously those descriptors are relative to the seeding for each team, but you can't deny it's unusual to see a 2 vs. 15 matchup where the 15-seed's offense is better than the 2-seed defense. That alone makes for an interesting game.
Of course the other side of the court pits the Buckeyes' #4 offense vs. the Golden Eagles' #285 defense, but let's just forgot about that for now. The teams have clashing tempos, with OSU wanting a slower pace and the Eagles wanting to run it. Giving the Eagles a bit more hope is the fact that Ohio State's recent play hasn't been up to their full-season standard (we'll look at their chart to see if they recovered with their Big Ten title runner up finish), but Oral Roberts lack of inconsistency gives them less hope for a fluke win.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (14)Morehead St.+33, (15)Cleveland St.+6, (11)UCLA+7, (10)Rutgers+12, @(10)Rutgers+11, @(1)Illinois+6, @(9)Wisconsin+12, (11)Michigan St.+17, @(2)Iowa+4, @(10)Maryland+8, =(4)Purdue+OT, =(1)Michigan+1
- Losses to tournament teams (7): @(4)Purdue-7, (4)Purdue-2, (1)Michigan-5, @(11)Michigan St.-4, (2)Iowa-16, (1)Illinois-5, =(1)Illinois-OT
- Other losses (2): @Northwestern-1, @Minnesota-17
Overview: Ohio State had a great season as evidenced by their full dozen wins over the tournament field: In addition to 9 Big Ten victims included 1-seeds Michigan and Illinois the Buckeyes also beat 1-bid conference champions Morehead State and Cleveland State, and play-in candidate UCLA. They all count!
When the Buckeyes were 16-4 they were the team of the moment, with 7 Big Ten wins in a row. Then the tides changed and they lost four in a row; three losses were to 1- or 2-seeds, but one was to 11-seed Michigan State and the Iowa loss was a shocking 73-57. Suddenly they weren't the team du jour, but rather just one of many Big Ten teams looking for a high seed. Their recovery was steady as they edged Minnesota by 4, topped Purdue in overtime, and beat Michigan by a point before falling to Illinois in overtime. I'm not sure they're as good as they were mid-season but at least they're winning 3 of 4 close games.
Duane Washington (16.3) and EJ Liddell (15.9) spark the Buckeyes on offense, with balanced scoring from several others in their slower-tempo offense. They might be missing #5 scorer Kyle Young (8.6ppg) due to a concussion he suffered against Purdue.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(9)Missouri-27, @(11)Wichita St.-5, @(4)Oklahoma St.-5, @(8)Oklahoma-14, @(3)Arkansas-11
- Other losses (5): North Dakota-1, UMKC-5, @North Dakota St.-7, South Dakota St.-15, @South Dakota-2
Overview: Oral Roberts played a killer non-conference schedule, losing to Missouri, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Arkansas before Summit League play started. That's a 9, 11, 4, 8, and 3-seed all in the first month. So Ohio State won't shock them with anything they do; they even played two of those teams to single digits, and led 3-seed Arkansas 40-30 at the half before falling 87-76.
Oral Roberts boasts the nation's leading scorer in Max Abmas (pronounced Ace - Muss despite all indications otherwise) who scores 24.2 point per game; #2 scorer Kevin Obanor adds a healthy 18.2. Part of this is due to the speed they play, but they are #11 in the nation in 3-point percentage. It's not about the low level of competition either, as Abmas scored 28 against Wichita State, 33 on Oklahoma State, and 20 vs. Oklahoma.
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Game Analysis: Normally this wouldn't even warrant much discussion when you have a team as good as Ohio State as a 2-seed, they seem untouchable. But this particular combo—a great shooting team with high scorers, and the favorite having a weak defense?—makes this one interesting. 2 vs. 15 upsets only happen once in a blue moon, or 6% of the time to be specific. 8 times ever (1985 marking the start of "ever").
So if you're looking for a high-leverage upset pick, you could do worse than to go with Oral Roberts. It would take the Buckeyes having a horrible day on offense, but with their slow tempo they might pull a Virginia and there you go. If you're looking ahead on your brackets and have decided Ohio State isn't going to get very far anyway, why not pencil in Oral Roberts for the big bracket points? Disregard of course if upsets don't pay out in your scoring system.
Vegas Line:
Ohio State by 16 1/2
Power rating: spread
Ohio State by 18.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Ohio State: 90.5%
Oral Roberts: 9.5%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Ohio State: 86.1%
Oral Roberts: 13.9%
Ohio State by 12.8
In the real world, Ohio State is a huge favorite; our Strength power rating is a bit ahead of Vegas on the margin, but it's the same idea. We do give the Eagles a near-10% chance to win by game comparison, and given Ohio State's recent losses and close calls it's a 14% chance right now with a smaller margin.
Bottom line: It's tempting, but I'd have to be certain the 2-seed was going to lose in the Round of 32, and they'd have to be playing like absolute crap, for me to pick a 15-seed. Losing to a 1-seed in overtime in the Big Ten final doesn't count as "crap". I will, however, call for a close game like the Eagles gave three of the five tournament teams they lost to.
Final prediction: Ohio State 89, Oral Roberts 78
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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