All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Iowa Hawkeyes
Seed: 2
Record: 21-8
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Grand Canyon Antelopes
Seed: 15
Record: 17-6
Conference: WAC
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 6:25 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
Most people didn't know Grand Canyon was a school or had a basketball team but they're going to be a crowd favorite on Saturday. Who doesn't like the Grand Canyon?
Iowa Grand Canyon
Power Ratings
Strength: #4 Strength: #104
Pomeroy: #5 Pomeroy: #108
Offense: #2 Offense: #142
Defense: #50 Defense: #74
BPI: #5 BPI: #74
LRMC: #4 LRMC: #127
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #99/#57 Tempo Total/Off: #314/#276
SOS: #16 SOS: #322
Consistency: #232 Consistency: #140
Str x Consistency: #4 Str x Consistency: #100
2nd half season: #6 2nd half season: #93
Last 6 games: #8 Last 6 games: #81
Road Strength: #2 Road Strength: #115
Injury Modifier: #5 (-Nunge) Injury Modifier: #103
The Hawkeyes are a consensus top five team, either #4 (Strength, LRMC) or #5 (Pomeroy, BPI). Grand Canyon is on average a #100 team, with the BPI giving them the most credit at #74 and LRMC throwing them shade at #127. Iowa's offense is 2nd best in the nation behind Gonzaga while their defense lags, though that shouldn't matter against Grand Canyon's #142 offense.
Iowa runs a fairly fast offense while the Antelopes like to slow things down. Another difference? The schedule each team has played. Iowa has played three of the four top seeds while Grand Canyon has played one 10-seed; hence the #16 to #322 SOS ratings, perhaps the biggest divergence in the tournament. 6-11 Iowa forward Jack Nunge was lost for the year in late February, which dings Iowa from #4 to #5 in Strength.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (8)North Carolina+13, (4)Purdue+15, @(10)Rutgers+2, @(10)Maryland+22, (11)Michigan St.+6, (10)Rutgers+13, @(11)Michigan St.+30, @(9)Wisconsin+15, @(2)Ohio St.+16, (9)Wisconsin+4, =(9)Wisconsin+5
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Gonzaga-11, @(1)Illinois-5, (2)Ohio St.-4, @(1)Michigan-22, =(1)Illinois-11
- Other losses (3): @Minnesota-OT, Indiana-12, @Indiana-2
Overview: Iowa finished a stellar 11-5 against the tournament field, and four of those losses were to 1-seeds Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois(twice), as well as 2-seed Ohio State. Their only other losses were to Minnesota in overtime, Indiana by 2 on the road, and an outlier home loss to Indiana by 12. That's still pretty amazing.
Iowa also avoided the dreaded February Collapse that two recent Hawkeye teams fell victim to. The last times Iowa was in the Pomeroy top 5 they collapsed. In 2014 they peaked at #4 and lost 9 of their next 13 games and fell to #22. Similarly in 2016 they hit #2 and lost 7 of their next 10, dropping to #23. It looked like it might happen this year too, as the #3 Hawkeyes lost 4 of 5 mid-season, but they pulled out of it and won 8 of their last 10 instead.
Iowa is of course led by 6-11 senior center Luka Garza's 23.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. His inside play is complemented by Iowa's solid three-point shooting (38.6%, 13th in the nation). Garza shoots 40.7% himself, though not as often as Iowa's guards. The Hawkeye defense isn't nearly as good as their offense; on D Iowa allows a lot of three-point shots and rarely gets takeaways. Their defense has improved over the season however.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (1): =(5)Colorado-10
- Other losses (5): Arizona St.-1, =San Francisco-3, Cal Baptist-3, @Seattle-6, Utah Valley-4
Overview: Grand Canyon's résumé is the opposite of Iowa's—no tournament teams defeated and almost no tournament played, but a loss to Colorado takes them out of the dreaded "unconnected" zone from which no team has emerged victorious. They played pretty steady basketball until recently, when they lost three games to terrible teams (Cal Baptist, Seattle, and Utah Valley) but played two great games, beating Seattle 81-47 and New Mexico State 74-56, to capture the WAC crown.
Grand Canyon also has a star center—7-0 Asbjorn Midtgaard, who leads the team with 14 points and 10 rebounds a game. He's a lot like Garza except not as many points and he never shoots the 3. Midtgaard boasts an insane 70.6% field goal percentage—again, it helps that he doesn't shoot threes, but 70% is still amazing. The team doesn't have much of an outside threat to take pressure off him, however, which limits their offensive effectiveness. Ideally, they'd get the ball to him every time and just let him dunk.
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Game Analysis: It's interesting that Grand Canyon has a star center to go up against Garza, making this a "battle of the big men." Garza doesn't tend to force things, so he'll be content to play defense and let Iowa's guards rain down the threes if need be; or, he could draw the Antelope's big man outside and shoot threes of his own. The Hawkeyes will miss Jack Nunge, who would have helped distract Midtgaard; as it is, Iowa will be the smaller team as Grand Canyon has a 6-10 center/forward in Alessandro Lever while the Hawkeyes don't have a lot of height outside of Garza.
Iowa shoots the three a lot and makes it a lot; Grand Canyon counters with the #6 field goal defense in the country. Of course, that's been achieved against the #322 schedule in the country, while Iowa has played 1-seeds four times. Grand Canyon is like a one-bid league version of Iowa that doesn't shoot the 3 well. In the WAC Midtgaard often posts up against much smaller players forced to try to guard him; against Garza he'll still get a few dunks but he'll have to work for them for a change.
Grand Canyon played two great games at the end of the season; if they can replicated those performances, they really do have a chance for the big upset.
Vegas Line:
Iowa by 14 1/2
Power rating: spread
Iowa by 17.2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Iowa: 87.7%
Grand Canyon: 12.3%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Iowa: 75.0%
Grand Canyon: 25.0%
Iowa by 14.3
Interestingly the recent game performance spread matches the Vegas line almost exactly, and comparing those games Grand Canyon has a 1 in 4 chance of winning. That's due to the Antelopes outlier wins at the end of the year, as well as one subpar outing for Iowa. Regardless, the full-season 12.3% chance is double the historical rate for a 15-seed upset, but our game-comparison method tends to give underdogs the benefit of the doubt.
Bottom line: The big man matchup makes this interesting and might limit Garza, but the Hawkeye guards will fill it up.
Final prediction: Iowa 80, Grand Canyon 66
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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