All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Houston Cougars
Seed: 2
Record: 24-3
Conference: American
vs.
Cleveland State Vikings
Seed: 15
Record: 19-7
Conference: Horizon
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Channel: truTV
Two teams that have trouble shooting the ball meet; one of them is a very good rebounding team, and it's the 2-seed.
Houston Cleveland St.
Power Ratings
Strength: #5 Strength: #207
Pomeroy: #6 Pomeroy: #151
Offense: #8 Offense: #199
Defense: #16 Defense: #121
BPI: #3 BPI: #186
LRMC: #5 LRMC: #122
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #327/#319 Tempo Total/Off: #282/#217
SOS: #108 SOS: #210
Consistency: #252 Consistency: #293
Str x Consistency: #5 Str x Consistency: #238
2nd half season: #4 2nd half season: #210
Last 6 games: #2 Last 6 games: #204
Road Strength: #34 Road Strength: #205
Injury Modifier: #4 Injury Modifier: #205
Befitting a 2-seed, Houston ranks in the top 6 in all the listed power ratings, with BPI topping them out at #3. They play a very slow tempo and despite mediocre shooting they rank as the #8 offense...more on that later. They haven't played a very tough schedule but neither has 15-seed Cleveland State, who ranks in the 100s (and #207 in Strength) across the board. Houston's parity on offense and defense is matched by the Vikings, just 100+ rungs lower.
The slow tempo and both teams low consistency ratings give Cleveland State some hope, but there's a lot of ground to make up, especially with Houston on a hot streak lately.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): =(6)Texas Tech+11, (11)Wichita St.+7
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Wichita St.-5
- Other losses (2): @Tulsa-1, @East Carolina-9
Overview: All year Houston has been the interloper in the top 25, the team from a non-major conference who isn't Gonzaga and therefore isn't legit. The Cougars have had to prove themselves time and time again that their schedule doesn't mean everything. And of course when they stumbled against really bad teams like Tulsa and East Carolina, those doubts grew. But with analytics on their side, they hovered in the top ten most of the year in the AP poll, and finally made believers of the selection committee, nabbing a 2-seed.
Quentin Grimes leads the Cougars with 18.0 points per game, adding 6 rebounds. And rebounding is a big reason why Houston offense works despite ranking only #104 in effective field goal percentage; the Cougars are #2 in offensive rebounding, meaning they get a lot of 2nd chances, which is how they can rank #8 in offensive efficiency per Pomeroy. On defense, they're top 10 against both 2s and 3s, and they get a lot of blocks and steals, those these stats are unadjusted for competition.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(13)Ohio-55, @(2)Ohio St.-6
- Other losses (5): @Toledo-9, @Wright St.-36, Milwaukee-OT, Detroit-6, @Purdue Fort Wayne-7
Overview: Cleveland State started the year with 3 losses, but one was particularly bad: the 101-46 loss to Ohio. Bizarrly, the Vikings played Ohio State the next week and only lost by 6 points, making it their best performance of the year. From there the Vikings were more consistent but still had the occasional dud game like the 85-49 loss to Wright State. In the end they won the tournament without raising their game much.
The Vikings are led by 6-5 guard Torrey Patton, who leads the team in both points (14.9) and rebounds (8.0).
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Game Analysis: Neither team shoots the ball very well, though Cleveland State is decent at 2-pointers and Houston not bad at 3s. But Houston guards the shot very well, and also gets loads of blocks and steals. We mentioned how those stats are unadjusted for level of competition, but Houston's normal level of competition is better than the Vikings, so the stats should be valid for this game.
More bad news for the Vikings—they are a bad rebounding team on defense, so Houston will have many chances to score on each trip down the floor. And although Houston fouls a lot and puts teams on the line, Cleveland State is pretty awful from the foul line, too. So should the game somehow end up close, Houston still has the advantage.
Cleveland State's only real hope is that Houston plays as bad as they did in their loss to East Carolina; that would give them about a 3 in 4 chance to win.
Vegas Line:
Houston by 20
Power rating: spread
Houston by 25.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 95.2%
Cleveland St.: 4.8%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Houston: 100%
Cleveland St.: 0%
Houston by 30.7
Our spread is a bit bigger than what Vegas proposes, probably because we include the full strength of Cleveland State's worst game and hold it against them. If we factor that out they're almost 2 points better. But the head-to-head comparison looks bad for them, and recent play indicates they have pretty much no chance.
Bottom line: We see Houston's defense confounding the Vikings and their offense try-trying again until they score.
Final prediction: Houston 77, Cleveland St. 49
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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