All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Alabama Crimson Tide
Seed: 2
Record: 24-6
Conference: SEC
vs.
Iona Gaels
Seed: 15
Record: 12-5
Conference: Metro Atlantic
Date: Saturday, March 20
Time: 4:00 pm Eastern
Region: East
Location: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
Alabama takes on Iona and coach Rick Pitino...that's 15-seed Iona, not 2-seed Iowa. We'd have to wait a while for that one.
Alabama Iona
Power Ratings
Strength: #7 Strength: #163
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #181
Offense: #34 Offense: #210
Defense: #2 Defense: #163
BPI: #10 BPI: #138
LRMC: #6 LRMC: #189
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #9/#3 Tempo Total/Off: #184/#203
SOS: #23 SOS: #266
Consistency: #335 Consistency: #298
Str x Consistency: #16 Str x Consistency: #190
2nd half season: #5 2nd half season: #154
Last 6 games: #6 Last 6 games: #108
Road Strength: #7 Road Strength: #179
Injury Modifier: #8 Injury Modifier: #165
This looks a lot like a 2 vs. 15 game. Alabama is in the top ten in all the surveyed power ratings and Iona doesn't really come close to cracking the top 100, especially in Pomeroy where their offensive efficiency number is atrocious. Alabama's offense doesn't quite live up to the standards of its #2 defense but it's not that bad.
Alabama also plays a super-fast tempo while Iona is in the average range. Both teams are pretty inconsistent; that probably won't affect this game but it should make one a bit wary of picking a deep Alabama run. If you're an Iona fan or if you're just dying to take a 15-over-2 upset, maybe you can justify it with the Consistency numbers; there's not much else here to help.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): @(5)Tennessee+8, (7)Florida+15, (3)Arkansas+31, @(8)LSU+30, (8)LSU+18, =(5)Tennessee+5, =(8)LSU+1
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(7)Clemson-8, @(8)Oklahoma-5, @(9)Missouri-3, @(3)Arkansas-15
- Other losses (2): Stanford-18, Western Kentucky-2
Overview: Alabama didn't start the season a powerhouse, in fact they lost three of their first seven games, falling to Stanford 82-64, 7-seed Clemson by 8, and Western Kentucky by 2. But once the SEC season started they were off to the races with nine straight wins, beating 5-seed Tennessee, 7-seed Florida, 3-seed Arkansas (90-59), and 8-seed LSU (105-75 on the road). They lost to red-hot (at the time) 8-seed Oklahoma before beating LSU again for a 10-0 conference start. They dropped games to Missouri and Arkansas, both of whom were on a hot streak, too. They won their last six including three games to win the SEC tournament.
Jaden Shackleford leads the Crimson Tide with 14.2 points per game; three others average double figures as well including #4 scorer Herbert Jones (11.2) who also leads in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Alabama's so-so offensive efficiency comes from so-so shooting—they rank #105 in field goal percentage—and they suffer a lot of blocks and steals in their hurry-up offense. On defense they are spectacular, ranking #10 in opponent eFG% and forcing turnovers.
Guard Josh Primo, the Tide's 5th leading scorer (8.1 ppg), is expected to miss the game, and might not be able to return until the Sweet Sixteen. Alabama played about 1 point worse without him in the two games he missed already, which is obviously a small sample but the bottom line is they can win without him...for now.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (5): @Seton Hall-22, Morgan St.-11, @Fairfield-15, Manhattan-7, @Quinnipiac-4
Overview: Iona played one of the shortest seasons of any tournament team, ever, due to this special year; only 14-1 Colgate has played fewer. And you'll never guess why: yep, Covid-19.
After starting the season 5-3, the Gaels had to take 51 days off, not playing between December 23 and Febrary 12. They came back with a solid 85-67 win over Manhattan for their fourth victory in a row, but then dropped two more games. Their final 6-game win streak was interrupted, too, with another Covid pause; this one lasted only from February 20 to the March 9 start of the MAAC tournament. Again, they didn't miss a beat, winning four straight to capture the title.
Isaiah Ross (18.4 ppg) leads the Gaels in scoring, making 39% of his 3-point attempts. They shoot okay but turn the ball over a lot. On defense, the Gaels don't press nearly as often as Pitino did at Louisville but they use it, sometimes as token pressure; whether and how they will employ it vs. Alabama remains to be seen.
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Game Analysis: This game is going to get a lot more attention for Rick Pitino than the actual competitiveness of the game itself, but imagine the hoopla if Pitino managed to coach a 15-seed to an upset of a 2-seed. Especially since Pitino beat 2-seed Alabama in 1987 when he coached at Providence.
The only chance Iona has is to make this game an outlier by taking Alabama out of their rhythm. They like to play fast on offense and Iona has to stop that. Failing that, they need to hope Alabama misses their shots (and doesn't rebound). They could get aggressive with defense but they tend to foul a lot and the Tide is a good free throw shooting team. At some point they'll probably have to just let the three-pointers fly and hope they hit them. Or there's always the 40-minute, wall-to-wall full court press, right?
Vegas Line:
Alabama by 17
Power rating: spread
Alabama by 19.6
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Alabama: 86.5%
Iona: 13.5%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Alabama: 91.7%
Iona: 8.3%
Alabama by 18.0
Not too much difference between the Vegas spread, the Strength power rating prediction, and the numbers from recent play. The interesting number is the 13.5% chance we give Iona when the historical percentage for 15-seeds is just 6%. That's mostly a product of Iona's limited schedule and very low consistency of the two teams. Alabama's early season had some bad games and Iona's outliers get credit for a "win", enough to add up to a 13.5% chance. Recent play is more in line with expectations.
Bottom line: Alabama should coast to a win, and probably will coast at some point, making it look close.
Final prediction: Alabama 79, Iona 66
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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