All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Illinois Fighting Illini
Seed: 1
Record: 23-6
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Drexel Dragons
Seed: 16
Record: 12-7
Conference: Colonial
Date: Friday, March 19
Time: 1:15 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: TBS
A 1-seed with among the best chance of any team to win it all faces a 16-seed whose name is among the best in the field.
Illinois Drexel
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #143
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #146
Offense: #7 Offense: #95
Defense: #5 Defense: #247
BPI: #4 BPI: #131
LRMC: #2 LRMC: #149
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #80/#114 Tempo Total/Off: #340/#333
SOS: #5 SOS: #191
Consistency: #305 Consistency: #23
Str x Consistency: #3 Str x Consistency: #117
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #126
Last 6 games: #1 Last 6 games: #124
Road Strength: #3 Road Strength: #142
Injury Modifier: #2 Injury Modifier: #144
Illinois is near the top in almost everything, including a top ten showing in both Offense and Defense per Pomeroy. They've been even better as of late, ranking as the #1 team over the last six game sample. Their one drawback is inconsistency, which opens them up to having a bad game here and there, which is something you can't afford in March.
But it would take a pretty bad game by Illinois for Drexel to be competitive. They aren't terrible, ranking in the top half of the nation in every power rating, and with a top 100 offense. The defense looks bad though, and though their consistency is admirable, it doesn't give them the look of a giant killer. Their slow tempo does, however, and it could be used to at least keep things close, now that we know a 16-seed has a prayer.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (13)Ohio+2, (4)Purdue+8, (2)Iowa+5, (9)Wisconsin+15, @(9)Wisconsin+5, @(1)Michigan+23, @(2)Ohio St.+5, =(10)Rutgers+22, =(2)Iowa+11, =(2)Ohio St.+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (6): =(1)Baylor-13, @(9)Missouri-3, @(10)Rutgers-3, (10)Maryland-3, (2)Ohio St.-6, @(11)Michigan St.-9
- Other losses (0): None.
Overview: Illinois somehow managed to sneak up on the basketball world; when they were 5-3 or 9-5 no one thought they were destined to be a 1-seed. Beating North Carolina A&T 122-60 and Chicago State 97-38 are impressive, but when you follow up with a 2 point win over Ohio and lose three of your next five games, you're written off as a national title contender. But one of those losses was to Baylor, the other two to tournament teams, and Ohio even made the field. The Illini eventually went on an 11-1 run in the nation's toughest conference, including a 23-point win over Michigan while their own leading scorer was out of the game, as well as a Big Ten tournament title.
Ayo Dosunmu (20.7 ppg) is the leading scorer in question, and with 7 foot, 285 lb center Kofi Cockburn (pronounced Co-burn thank you) they make a great 1-2, inside-outside punch. Cockburn averages 17.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. Similar to the Devon Dotson-Udoka Azubuike combo that would have made Kansas a favorite last year, Illinois is the pick of many this year.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): None
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (7): @Pittsburgh-9, La Salle-10, @Charleston-1, @Charleston-5, William & Mary-5, @James Madison-9, @Hofstra-5
Overview: Drexel is part of a rare March Madness club that's more common this year than usual due to Covid: teams that haven't played anyone else from the field. Most years there might be one team at most, but in 2021's group there are four such teams. Teams in this club have yet to win a tournament game (I believe this is still true).
The Dragons boast four starters in double figures led by Camren Wynter (16.8 ppg). But complicating matters for Drexel is their lack of height; they don't have a true center and their tallest players (at 6-10) play sparingly. Stopping Cockburn underneath will be a task that falls to 6-9 James Butler, the team's #2 scorer (12.9) and leading rebounder (9.2).
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Game Analysis: It's hard to see how Drexel will slow down Illinois; if they collapse on Cockburn when he gets the ball, they've left open the perimeter for Illinois' 3-point shooters (37.6% as a team). Can they try to deny him and at the same time, keep track of Illinois' other skill players? Let's face it, defense is not Drexel's thing so their only (small) hope is to outscore the Illini.
Drexel's offense isn't much better suited to success on that end of the court due to Illinois' great D. But they do have a slow pace, and if they manage to score some points while not being in much of a hurry, the game might not get out of hand. At least for a while.
Vegas Line:
Illinois by 22 1/2
Power rating: spread
Illinois by 22.0
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Illinois: 94.4%
Drexel: 5.6%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Illinois: 100%
Drexel: 0%
Illinois by 26.9
Vegas and our power rating agree on a 20+ point blowout, and with enough game samples we give Drexel a very generous >5% chance of winning. Cordoned off to recent games, there's no way Drexel wins this if both teams play the way they've been playing.
Bottom line: And that's the problem: Drexel plays a pretty consistent game. They can slow it down (maybe) and keep it closer, but really Illinois determines the winning margin by their own performance. And we think they'll be fired up going into the tournament.
Final prediction: Illinois 94, Drexel 61
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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