All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Houston Cougars
Seed: 2
Record: 27-3
Conference: American
vs.
Oregon State Beavers
Seed: 12
Record: 20-12
Conference: Pac-12
Date: Monday, March 29
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
Can Houston make their first Final Four since 1984 by beating their fourth double-digit seed in a row?
Houston Oregon State
Power Ratings
Strength: #4 Strength: #56
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #43
Offense: #8 Offense: #35
Defense: #6 Defense: #63
BPI: #3 BPI: #67
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #5 LRMC: #77
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #326/#326 Tempo Total/Off: #304/#318
Consistency: #224 Consistency: #330
Last 3 games: #5 Last 3 games: #4
The gaps between Houston and its opponents remains wide, as they face a 12-seed now that is only borderline top 50 by the estimation of the power ratings, with mediocre offense and defense. Houston remains top 10 in both offense and defense by comparison, so on paper this is a mismatch. But Oregon State keeps winning games, and for the tournament so far their performance has been equal to or better than Houston's.
Oregon State's low consistency implies a more random performance level and it's been on the upside during the tournament, and really for the last six games Oregon State's played at a consistentent, high level. There's no tempo discrepancy between the teams at all, though, which would seem to favor the favorite more than the team looking for an upset.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =(6)Texas Tech+11, (11)Wichita St.+7, =(15)Cleveland St.+31, =(10)Rutgers+3, =(11)Syracuse+16
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(11)Syracuse+16
- Losses to tournament teams (1): @(11)Wichita St.-5
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (0): None
- Other losses (2): @Tulsa-1, @East Carolina-9
Overview: All year Houston has been the interloper in the top 25, the team from a non-major conference who isn't Gonzaga and therefore isn't legit. The Cougars have had to prove themselves time and time again that their schedule doesn't mean everything. And of course when they stumbled against really bad teams like Tulsa and East Carolina, those doubts grew. But with analytics on their side, they hovered in the top ten most of the year in the AP poll, and finally made believers of the selection committee, nabbing a 2-seed.
Quentin Grimes leads the Cougars with 18.0 points per game, adding 6 rebounds. And rebounding is a big reason why Houston offense works despite ranking only #104 in effective field goal percentage; the Cougars are #2 in offensive rebounding, meaning they get a lot of 2nd chances, which is how they can rank #8 in offensive efficiency per Pomeroy. On defense, they're top 10 against both 2s and 3s, and they get a lot of blocks and steals, those these stats are unadjusted for competition.
Houston blitzed Cleveland State 87-56 in round 1, with Grimes scoring his typical 18 to lead the team. Grimes led with 22 against Rutgers as the Cougars held off the Scarlet Knights 63-60. Houston didn't shoot well against Syracuse, making just 38% but they held the Orange to 28% in the 62-46 win; Grimes had 14.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (6)USC+2, @(7)Oregon+11, =(11)UCLA+OT, =(7)Oregon+11, =(5)Colorado+2, =(5)Tennessee+14, =(4)Oklahoma St.+10, =(8)Loyola Chicago+7
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (6)USC+2, @(7)Oregon+11, =(11)UCLA+OT, =(7)Oregon+11, =(8)Loyola Chicago+7
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(6)USC-13, @(11)UCLA-5, @(5)Colorado-29, (5)Colorado-4, (7)Oregon-13
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (3): @(6)USC-13, @(11)UCLA-5, (7)Oregon-13
- Other losses (7): @Washington St.-4, Wyoming-3, Portland-OT, Stanford-10, Arizona-34, @Arizona-9, @Arizona St.-2
Overview: Before the Pac-12 tournament, wins over USC and Oregon in games 12 and 13 were all Oregon State could claim on its résumé, which certainly wasn't Big Dance worthy. But in three days they added UCLA, Colorado, and another win over Oregon to their list. 17-12 might seem borderline for an NCAA tournament team but it sure beats 7-9, which is what the Beavers were on February 20th.
Oregon State is led by guard Ethan Thompson who averages 15.3 points per game; he also leads the team in assists and steals. Forward Warith Alatishe is 3rd in points at 9.9 and leads with 8.5 rebounds. Roman Silva led the team with 16 points against Tennessee, while Thompson had 26 points—making 15 of 16 free throws—in the upset of Oklahoma State. Thompson led with 22 against Loyola Chicago as the Beavers upset the Ramblers 65-58.
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Game Analysis: Which team is hotter right now? It's hard to tell, and it often is at the Elite Eight since playing three solid games is almost a prerequisite to get here. Houston has defeated only double-digit seeds so far, a 15, 10, and 11. If the Cougars beat 12-seed Oregon State to make the Final Four, will it be the easiest path in NCAA 64-team history? They would be the only team to make it without facing at least a 9-seed.
Meanwhile Oregon State beat the tougher opponents—a 5-seed, a 4-seed, and an 8-seed; and if you add the Pac-12 tournament, they also beat an 11-seed (UCLA), a 7-seed (Oregon), and another 5-seed (Colorado). Their 6-game post-season run is really quite impressive.
Oregon State is the more "random" team over the course of the season by far, but lately they've seemingly settled into a groove of steady, high-level performance, while Houston is a lot more all-over-the-place recently. Is Houston due for a bad game? Their relatively poor shooting figures can make or break a game for them, which lead many to dismiss their chances for a deep run in the tournament. But as they showed against Syracuse, they can shoot very poorly (38%) and still win by 16 points, as their opponents almost never shoot well against them.
And as poor of a shooting team Houston is, this is one game where it's less likely to matter. The Cougars are #122 in effective field goal percentage per Pomeroy, but Oregon State's defense is just #120. And the Beavers are a much worse shooting team—#222—while Houston is #1 on defense. The Cougars also look to have a big rebounding edge leading to more 2nd shots.
The teams play at nearly an identical tempo on offense, too, so there's little to ruffle Houston's feathers and get them out of their game. Oregon State is going to have to continue to play as well as they have during the tournament—which is possible—and hope that Houston is the one to have a bad day, basically. They can also try to exploit Houston's lack of height with 7-1 Roman Silva underneath; he's one of the few Beavers to shoot over 50% in 2-pointers, where Houston's defense is #4.
Vegas Line:
Houston by 8
Power rating: spread
Houston by 11.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 73.6%
Oregon State: 26.4%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Houston: 58.3%
Oregon State: 41.7%
Houston by 2.8
As is often the case at this stage of the tournament, Vegas' odds are a combination of full-season performance and recent success for both teams, so their line is narrower than the Strength power rating line for the full year. We give the Beavers about a 1 in 4 chance for the upset; only one 12-seed has ever faced a 2-seed (Missouri vs. Oklahoma, in 2002) and they lost 81-75.
Using the last 6 games, which corresponds to Oregon State's run through the Pac-12 tournament and trip to the Elite Eight, Houston still comes out on top, but by just 3 points or so.
Bottom line: If Oregon State keeps up their great performance, this is going to be a very close game, and Houston will have to play their best to win. The Cougars often struggle to make shots but we can't get past Oregon State's poor shooting offense going up against Houston's lockdown shooting defense. This game might not be pretty.
Final prediction: Houston 51, Oregon State 45
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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