All previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 29-0
Conference: West Coast
vs.
USC Trojans
Seed: 6
Record: 25-7
Conference: Pac-12
vs.
Date: Tuesday, March 30
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Channel: CBS
Is it time for Gonzaga to have a scare at the hands of suddenly-hot USC?
Gonzaga USC
Power Ratings
Strength: #1 Strength: #7
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #6
Offense: #1 Offense: #14
Defense: #7 Defense: #4
BPI: #1 BPI: #8
LRMC:(pre-tourney) #1 LRMC: #11
Other Measures:
Tempo Total/Off: #6/#3 Tempo Total/Off: #234/#194
Consistency: #77 Consistency: #313
Last 3 games: #2 Last 3 games: #1
Gonzaga started the year #1, they started the tournament #1, and they're still a unanimous #1 in the power ratings. USC is firmly in the top ten, but that's not where they started. The LRMC's ranking is pre-tourney and they were #11—the highest anyone had them. The Trojans began the tournament #14 in Pomeroy, #15 in Strength, and #16 in BPI, and have moved up a uniform 8 spots in each ranking. In Pomeroy their offense was #30, defense #19, and they've moved up almost linearly there, too.
There's somewhat of a tempo clash here—not unusual for fast-paced Gonzaga. USC plays mid-tempo offense and locks down on defense (#338) for long possessions. On defense Gonzaga plays "slow" too (#279)—it's when the Zags have the ball that they want to run while USC wants to tie them down in halfcourt.
Over the first 3 games of the tournament, these are the teams playing the best so far—with USC about a point better.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =(3)Kansas+12, =(3)West Virginia+5, =(2)Iowa+11, =(4)Virginia+23, (6)BYU+17, @(6)BYU+11, =(6)BYU+10, =(16)Norfolk St.+43, =(8)Oklahoma+16, =(5)Creighton+18
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(5)Creighton+18
- Losses to tournament teams (0): None
- Other losses (0): None
Overview: Gonzaga's season has been the same thing over and over...win, win, and win again. They beat 3-seed Kansas in the opener, 102-90, and edged 4-seed West Virginia 87-82 a week later in what would be their closest game of the season. They handled 2-seed Iowa and 4-seed Virginia more easily, 99-88 and 98-75 respectively. The WCC schedule was just as easy; they picked up three wins over 6-seed BYU, the last of which was a good fight and gave them the WCC crown.
The Zags appeared to be best in a stretch from mid-January to mid-February when they didn't play a game that wasn't stellar. Their "stumble" at the end consists of an 89-75 home win over mediocre Santa Clara and an 86-69 home win over not-great Loyola Marymount. After 22 straight wins can you expect a team to be motivated all the time? In the WCC tournament they beat Saint Mary's 78-55 and were tested by BYU who held an early 14 point lead and later a 9 point lead with under 10 minutes left. The Zags quickly took the lead and pulled away down the stretch, a good gut check for the team.
Gonzaga is lead by 6-7 senior Corey Kispert's 19.2 points; 6-10 Drew Timme's 18.7 points and 7.1 rebounds; and freshman point guard Jalen Suggs' 14.3 points and 4.5 assists. Suggs and Kispert are both potential lottery picks in the draft, with Timme and forward Joel Ayayi (11.8 points, 7.0 rebounds) going somewhere in the first two rounds. This is a loaded team. They're #1 in effective field goal percentage, #1 on 2-point percentage (64%), and play great defense despite running such a fast pace.
The Bulldogs had no trouble with 16-seed Norfolk State, beating them 98-55; Kispert had 23 points. Oklahoma was a much more stubborn foe but the Bulldogs turned them back behind Drew Timme's 30 points and 13 rebounds. Timme had 22 as the Zags handled Creighton with relative ease, 83-65.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(6)BYU+26, (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1, =(11)Drake+16, =(3)Kansas+34, =(7)Oregon+14
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (12)Oregon St.+13, (11)UCLA+18, (7)Oregon+14, @(11)UCLA+1, =(7)Oregon+14
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(7)Connecticut-3, (5)Colorado-10, @(12)Oregon St.-2, @(5)Colorado-18, =(5)Colorado-2
- Losses to Sweet Sixteen (1): @(12)Oregon St.-2
- Other losses (2): Arizona-9, @Utah-10
Overview: USC kicked off the season with a 95-87 overtime win over Cal Baptist, hardly a promising start. But a few games later they topped 6-seed BYU 79-53. Losses to UConn and Colorado stalled the Trojans before a 13-1 run put them at the top of the Pac-12 and in the forefront of the college basketball world. Then some turbulence hit; they lost to Arizona, Colorado, and Utah in a 4-game stretch, strangely interrupted by a huge 72-58 win over 7-seed Oregon. And right after these issues, they crushed Stanford 79-42, one of their very best outings, and beat 11-seed UCLA on the road. They lost in the Pac-12 tournament to Colorado—their third loss to the Buffaloes. The Trojans have become a very unpredictable team lately.
USC is led by the Evan Mobley (16.8 ppg, 8.6 rebounds) a 7-0 forward who is a certain lottery pick in the next NBA draft; brother Isaiah, 6-10, is the 4th leading scorer at 9.0 ppg and 2nd leading rebounder. As a team they shoot the ball well and get a lot of rebounds, as they are statistically the 2nd tallest team in the nation. On defense they are lockdown inside the arc, allowing opponents only 42% on 2-pointers. One big flaw: they shoot only 64.7% from the foul line.
Evan Mobley led with 17 against Drake while Isaiah added 15 in the 72-56 win; Isaiah had 17 in the stunning 85-51 beatdown of Kansas, while Evan had 10 points and 13 rebounds. USC's 2nd match with Oregon went much like the first one, with the Trojans holding a big lead most of the game and winning by 14. Isaiah White led with 22.
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Game Analysis: There's a big man matchup underneath, and guard play on the outside to consider; these are two of the tallest teams in college basketball, with Gonzaga at #29 and USC at #2.
Can the Trojans use their height to their advantage? The Zags start 6-4, 6-4, 6-5, and 6-7 along with 6-10 Timme; the Trojans counter with 6-2, 6-7, 6-8, and 6-10 Isaiah Mobley along with 7-0 Evan Mobley. The Trojans essentially have two players who can match Timme inside while their tall guard/forward players can out-length Gonzaga's guard/forwards. This might mean Jalen Suggs will become Gonzaga's most important player, as he's the only one with a height edge and will be responsible for creating matchups that negate USC's height advantage.
USC's recent performance has been pretty great, but a lot of it comes from their blowout against Kansas, which was one of the very best games played by any team this year. Since that's unlikely to happen again, we can pretty safely say these teams are playing at about the same level so far in the tournament. Neither has had won by fewer than 14, so there's no realistic way to compare blowout to blowout—a basket at the end here or there would change the calculus.
And really, Gonzaga's not the only one that needs to be tested. USC has had a pretty easy run so far, never being down in the 2nd half. We could just as easily ask how they will handle the gut-check of a close game? The difference is, that's for the tournament; Gonzaga hasn't been pushed by a close game all season. At least, not since beating West Virginia 87-82, where the game was tied with 6:30 to go. More recently they turned back BYU when the Cougars led by 9 with 9:00 left, but by the end they had a 10 point lead. The way USC is playing, this game could be their toughest of the season so far.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 9
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 7.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 72.2%
USC: 27.8%
Recent game performance (last 6):
Gonzaga: 72.2%
USC: 27.8%
Gonzaga by 4.6
The Zags are a fairly healthy favorite by Vegas; we give them a 72% chance to win which is almost exactly the 72.7% win rate 1-seeds have had against 6-seeds (78% in the Elite Eight, 72.7%, or 8 of 11, in Elite Eight and Final Four). That win rate is the same over the last 6 games sample, but the margin drops from 7.9 to 4.6 mostly due to USC's monster win over Kansas skewing things. Over the last 3 games, Gonzaga's odds are 55.6% but USC is the "average" favorite by 1.3 points, again due to the Kansas win.
Bottom line: It's time for a big test of Gonzaga, and USC is the team on fire at the moment. We're looking for a nail-biter finish but think the Zags pull it out, as championship teams do.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 79, USC 77
More previews: click here for the full 2021 NCAA tournament schedule.
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