All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Virginia Cavaliers
Seed: 1
Record: 34-3
Conference: ACC
vs.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 3
Record: 31-6
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Monday, April 8
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Location: Minneapolis, MN
Channel: CBS
Down to the final: 1-seed Virginia vs. 3-seed Texas Tech.
Virginia Texas Tech
Power Ratings
Strength: #3 Strength: #6
Pomeroy: #1 Pomeroy: #5
Offense: #3 Offense: #28
Defense: #5 Defense: #1
BPI: #1 BPI: #6
LRMC: #4* LRMC: #8*
*from Selection Sunday
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #353 (352/345) Tempo: #237 (271/191)
Consistency: #66 Consistency: #308
2nd half season: #2 2nd half season: #3
Last 5 games: #13 Last 5 games: #1
Virginia is back up to #3 in Strength, which is where they were on Selection Sunday; this is mostly due to Texas Tech beating Michigan State by 10 points. Tech is #6, up three spots from where they stood two weeks ago.
Pomeroy and BPI have had Virginia #1 since Selection Sunday, though the Cavaliers did dip to #2 in BPI for a bit during the tourney. Again, Texas Tech's previous win over Gonzaga put the Cavs back at #1, and the Red Raiders themselves have moved four spots in Pomeroy and three in BPI. The LRMC had Virginia the lowest, at #4, and started with Texas Tech the highest at #8.
Virginia's tempo is about as slow as you can get on both sides of the floor, while by comparison Tech's is fairly moderate. But it probably leads to a very slow pace since Virginia will control the tempo on offense, and Texas Tech is pretty slow on offense themselves.
Both teams have great ratings for the 2nd half of the season, but it's the Red Raiders who have truly excelled during the tournament, easily showing up as the best team in the nation during the tournament so far.
Season overview: Virginia
- Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =(5)Wisconsin+7, @(6)Maryland+5, (8)VCU+8, (4)Florida St.+13, (4)Virginia Tech+22, @(1)North Carolina+8, @(4)Virginia Tech+6, @(7)Louisville+12, @(8)Syracuse+26, (7)Louisville+5, =(16)Gardner Webb+15, =(9)Oklahoma+12, =(12)Oregon+4, =(3)Purdue+OT, =(5)Auburn+1
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (7): (4)Florida St.+13, (4)Virginia Tech+22, @(1)North Carolina+8, @(4)Virginia Tech+6, =(12)Oregon+4, =(3)Purdue+OT, =(5)Auburn+1
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): =(5)Auburn+1
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(1)Duke-2, (1)Duke-10, =(4)Florida St.-10
- Other losses (0): none
Overview: Virginia's 2019 season was pretty much like their 2018 season—lots of wins, and very few losses. They lost only 3 times. The first loss to Duke was a "good" loss, by 2 points on Duke's home court. The next time they lost at home by 10—which again wasn't bad considering Duke inexplicably shot the lights out from behind the arc. The third loss was the troubling one, loing to Florida State by 10 on a neutral court. It was their worst performance of the year. Afterwards there were some concerning locker room quotes about how they felt they got "punked." Hopefully that game allowed them to relive, and reject, the bad feelings from the UMBC loss. But even if it renews them in the short term, the fact that they faltered in the ACC tournament doesn't seem to bode well for their chances of winning the Big Dance. Has reaching the Final Four exorcised their demons?
On the upside, the season included wins over 10 tournament teams, including 1-seed North Carolina. They didn't really play a lot of top seeds outside of Duke. Sure, they can beat 4-seeds, but that only gets you to the Elite Eight. Does having a slightly weak SOS harm them? People ask the question about Gonzaga all the time, but Virginia's SOS was just borderline top 25 entering the tourney.
Virginia's offense is actually at least the equal of it's defense, believe it or not. That's one thing that should propel the team through the brackets. They're shooting the ball extremely well, especially three-pointers, and limiting turnovers. On defense they're basically the same as last year, making teams shoot poor percentage shots. Kyle Guy leads the team at 15.6 ppg, while De'Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome add 15.1 and 13.0 respectively. Hunter missed last year's game, and after watching from the bench I can only imagine he's ready to go.
Hunter certainly was ready to go, leading the team with 23 points against Gardner Webb. The game looked like deja vu until the 2nd half started and Virginia righted the ship, winning 71-56. Against Oklahoma the Cavaliers looked like their old selves, winning methodically 63-51 behind Mamadi Diakite's 14 points. Virginia outlasted a tough Oregon team, 53-49; Ty Jerome had 16. Down 2 to Purdue with seconds to go, Jerome intentionally missed a free throw, then Kihei Clark recovered the batted ball well across midcourt and zipped a pass to Diakite who calmly and precisely swished the tying bucket with time expiring. The Cavaliers won 80-75 in overtime with Guy's 25 leading the way. Guy was again the hero against Auburn, putting in three clutch free throws after being fouled on a last-second shot as the Cavs prevailed 63-62.
**************************************************************
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): (15)Abilene Christian+34, (4)Kansas St.+6, (9)Oklahoma+7, @(9)Oklahoma+12, (9)Baylor+25, (4)Kansas+29, @(6)Iowa St.+7, =(14)Northern Kentucky+15, =(6)Buffalo+17, =(2)Michigan+19, =(1)Gonzaga+6, =(2)Michigan St.+10
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): =(2)Michigan+19, =(1)Gonzaga+6, =(2)Michigan St.+10
- Wins vs. Final Four (1): =(2)Michigan St.+10
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Duke-11, (6)Iowa St.-4, @(9)Baylor-11, @(4)Kansas St.-13, @(4)Kansas-16
- Other losses (1): =West Virginia-5
Overview: Texas Tech raced to a 10-0 start against a mostly easy field before losing to 1-seed Duke in New York. They won 5 more and were 15-1 when they hit a 3-game skid courtesy of tourney teams Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. Kansas added to the pile-on, but then the Raiders went on an even more incredible recovery, winning 9 straight including wins over Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, and Iowa State. They shockingly lost to West Virginia, though, a team they beat by 31 at the start of the last streak.
On defense, Texas Tech holds teams to the 2nd lowest combined shooting average in the nation, and they are #7 in blocked shots per opportunity. They get a lot of turnovers, too. It all adds up to perhaps the nation's best defensive play. On offense, Jarrett Culver leads the team with an 18.5 ppg average. The Red Raiders took care of business against Northern Kentucky, 72-57, with Culver's 29 leading the way. All five starters were in double figures for the 91-74 win over Buffalo. The Raiders then dominated Michigan 63-44 to reach the Elite Eight for the 2nd straight year; Culver had 22. The Raiders made their first Final Four by beating 1-seed Gonzaga 75-69 behind Culver's 19 points. Texas Tech continued their domination of great teams, beating Michigan State 61-51 with Matt Mooney's 22 leading the way.
**************************************************************
Game Analysis: Normally you would think that finishing the regular season with your worst loss of the year doesn't bode well for NCAA tournament performance, but both Virginia and Texas Tech turned that advice on its head. The Cavaliers dropped out of the ACC tournament with a 69-59 loss to Florida State—not exactly devastating but easily the worst performance of the year for this normally very consistent team. And Texas Tech did that one better by losing to 15-21 West Virginia 79-74, their worst loss. The Raiders were more inconsistent and had a few losses almost as bad. Still, not the performance you want to have heading into the NCAA tournament. Did it make a difference? Clearly in the case of these teams, no, not at all.
A lot has alread been said about the projected low score of this game. Vegas has already pegged the over/under of this game at 118, the lowest in 20 years. This is for two reasons: One, the teams rank #1 and #5 in defensive efficiency. And two, both teams play at a very slow tempo, particularly the Cavaliers. Great defenses + slow tempo = low score, that's not hard to figure. But a few notions might mitigate that. First of all, these are good offenses, especially Virginia's; they rank #3 in efficiency while Texas Tech ranks #28. Also, the Red Raiders play a much more moderate tempo than Virginia, so there could be a bit of speed on the floor. As we noted before, however, Tech is pretty slow on offense, and when they're on defense it will probably be the Cavs' offense setting the pace.
The main advantage Virginia has in the game is their offense, which is much better than Texas Tech's. Theoretically, their #3 offense can play well enough against Tech's #1 defense to allow their own #5 defense to carry their day by clamping down on Tech's #28 offense. The reality might not work out like that, however. The gap between Tech's defense and the #2 defense has grown quite a bit during the tournament, widening the gap between their D and Virginia's O, almost to the point where the differences cancel each other out.
Virginia is shoots 3s very well, while Tech defends the 3 very well (both are #9 in the nation). Also Virigina suffers few turnovers, while Tech causes a lot of turnovers (both are #11 in the nation). One difference is in 2-point shots, which the Raiders defend well (#2) but Virginia lags a bit on offense (#71). Blocked shots are another area where Tech's defense has the edge at #5 in the nation.
Texas Tech's offensive rating has improved during the tournament but at a slower rate than their defense; Tech's outperformance has been almost 3/4 due to improved defense. On offense they match up pretty well in some ways with the Cavaliers, with their strengths (not getting shots blocked) match Virginia's strengths, and weaknesses (steals) residing in areas where Virginia's D doesn't excel. But when it comes to shooting the ball, the Red Raiders are decent at best while Virginia defends very well. And 2nd shots won't come easily since the Raiders aren't a good offensive rebounding team and Virginia's rebounding on D is fairly solid.
The biggest difference between the teams seems to be their play during the tournament. Obviously both teams have done well as both have reached the championship game. But Texas Tech's run has really been a lot more impressive than Virginia's, beating a 1, 2, 2, 6, and 14-seed vs. beating a 3, 5, 9, 12, and 16. Not only that, but Virginia needed some pretty amazing luck in their last two wins while Texas Tech has had convincing wins throughout. During the tournament alone, Virginia's Strength rating has fallen from 26.50 to 25.12 while Texas Tech's has risen from 20.99 to 22.66. In Pomeroy, where recent performance is weighted, Virginia has fallen 1.7 points while Tech is up 3.7.
The most stunning comparison is to isolate each team's 5 tournament games; in this small sample the Red Raiders rate as almost 13 points better than Virginia. If you take these 5 games and cross-compare them to get 25 results, Texas Tech wins 23 of the 25.
Vegas Line:
Virginia by 1
Power rating: spread
Virginia by 2.5
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Virginia: 54.9%
Texas Tech: 45.1%
The Vegas line reflects the fact that Texas Tech is playing very well while Virginia is winning very, very close games, so even the Strength power ratings' 2.5 points seem excessive to them. For the full season Virginia wins about 55% of the contests; historically 1-seeds have beaten 3-seeds 21 of 34 times, or 62% of the time. That includes Virginia's win over 3-seed Purdue and Texas Tech's win over 1-seed Gonzaga.
Bottom line: We picked both teams to lose in the Final Four, but we had Virginia getting there so we didn't underestimate the Cavs that much. On the other hand, we've been underestimating Texas Tech for most of the tournament and they've played better basketball by far than anyone along the way.
Final prediction: Texas Tech 60, Virginia 55
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
