All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 2
Record: 32-6
Conference: Big Ten
vs.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 3
Record: 30-6
Conference: Big Twelve
Date: Saturday, April 6
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: Minneapolis, MN
Channel: CBS
The blue blood Spartans are in their 10th Final Four; it is the first for Texas Tech. Both had to beat 1-seeds to get here.
Michigan State Texas Tech
Power Ratings
Strength: #3 Strength: #6
Pomeroy: #3 Pomeroy: #5
Offense: #5 Offense: #30
Defense: #8 Defense: #1
BPI: #4 BPI: #6
LRMC: #3* LRMC: #8*
*from Selection Sunday
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #201 (125/330) Tempo: #229 (267/177)
Consistency: #42 Consistency: #308
2nd half season: #3 2nd half season: #6
Last 4 games: #5 Last 4 games: #1
Though a 2-seed and a 3-seed, both teams now rank in the top 6 in all power ratings, with the exception of Texas Tech in the LRMC which doesn't update after Selection Sunday. Michigan State is more reliable on both sides of the court, but Texas Tech's #1 defense will challenge MSU's offense.
The Red Raiders have played a bit better on offense during the tournament, moving from #33 in Pomeroy to #30, but not enough to account for their great (#1) tournament performance so far. They've just made their #1 defense that much better. Michigan State is a very consistent team unlike the Raiders, but Texas Tech's variance has clearly been on the upside recently.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (18): (11)Iowa+22, @(10)Florida+4, @(11)Ohio St.+9, (3)Purdue+18, (6)Maryland+14, @(10)Iowa+15, (10)Minnesota+24, @(5)Wisconsin+8, (11)Ohio St.+18, @(2)Michigan+7, (2)Michigan+12, =(11)Ohio St.+7, =(5)Wisconsin+12, =(2)Michigan+5, =(15)Bradley+11, =(10)Minnesota+20, =(3)LSU+17, =(1)Duke+1
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (6): (3)Purdue+18, @(2)Michigan+7, (2)Michigan+12, =(2)Michigan+5, =(3)LSU+17, =(1)Duke+1
- Wins vs. Final Four (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(4)Kansas-5, @(7)Louisville-OT, @(3)Purdue-10
- Other losses (3): Indiana-OT, @Illinois-5, @Indiana-1
Overview: Michigan State has more wins over the tournament field than any other team, another reason it's odd they didn't get a 1-seed. Perhaps they lack big wins over 1-seeds, but they beat fellow 2-seed Michigan three times, does that not create some separation? They also swept 10-seed Iowa, 5-seed Wisconsin, and 11-seed Ohio State. They were 1-1 vs. 3-seed Purdue and strangely got swept by Indiana, once during a bad 3-game swoon that was their only real time of weakness this season. They were pretty consistent, with their 101-33 win over Tennessee Tech (game 4) the only outrageous blowout win.
Not surprisingly, MSU does almost everything well: shooting 2s, 3s, free throws, assists, rebounding; and on defense defending the shot and blocking shots. Their one poor area is forcing turnovers, something they don't need to do when everything else is running smoothly. The Spartans lost key guard Joshua Langford midway through the season and reserve forward Kyle Ahrens is out too, leaving them with a 6-man rotation, but behind Cassius Winston (18.9 ppg) and Nick Ward (14.0), who returned for the Big Ten tournament, MSU is playing their best basketball at the right time. That didn't hold true for their first game, a 76-65 win over stubborn 15-seed Bradley where being shorthanded hurt them due to foul trouble; Winston led with 26 points. Xavier Tillman had 14 in the 70-50 Minnesota win. The Spartans reached the Elite Eight by dominating LSU 80-63 behind Aaron Henry's 20 points. To reach the Final Four they beat Duke 68-67, their first win over the Blue Devils since the 2005 tournament; Winston had 20 points and 10 assists.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (15)Abilene Christian+34, (4)Kansas St.+6, (9)Oklahoma+7, @(9)Oklahoma+12, (9)Baylor+25, (4)Kansas+29, @(6)Iowa St.+7, =(14)Northern Kentucky+15, =(6)Buffalo+17, =(2)Michigan+19, =(1)Gonzaga+6
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(2)Michigan+19, =(1)Gonzaga+6
- Wins vs. Final Four (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Duke-11, (6)Iowa St.-4, @(9)Baylor-11, @(4)Kansas St.-13, @(4)Kansas-16
- Other losses (1): =West Virginia-5
Overview: Texas Tech raced to a 10-0 start against a mostly easy field before losing to 1-seed Duke in New York. They won 5 more and were 15-1 when they hit a 3-game skid courtesy of tourney teams Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. Kansas added to the pile-on, but then the Raiders went on an even more incredible recovery, winning 9 straight including wins over Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, and Iowa State. They shockingly lost to West Virginia, though, a team they beat by 31 at the start of the last streak.
On defense, Texas Tech holds teams to the 2nd lowest combined shooting average in the nation, and they are #7 in blocked shots per opportunity. They get a lot of turnovers, too. It all adds up to perhaps the nation's best defensive play. On offense, Jarrett Culver leads the team with an 18.5 ppg average. The Red Raiders took care of business against Northern Kentucky, 72-57, with Culver's 29 leading the way. All five starters were in double figures for the 91-74 win over Buffalo. The Raiders then dominated Michigan 63-44 to reach the Elite Eight for the 2nd straight year; Culver had 22. The Raiders made their first Final Four by beating 1-seed Gonzaga 75-69 behind Culver's 19 points.
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Game Analysis: Interestingly both teams went through puzzling 3-game swoons in the middle of the season, then recovered to play just as well or even better than before.
Both teams' defenses have the advantage in efficiency over their counterpart's offense, so expect a fairly low-scoring game with moderate tempo—faster when Michigan State has the ball, slower when Tech does. Since both defenses have the edge, the question becomes what each offense can do to overcome that advantage:
What does Michigan State do well on offense that could beat Texas Tech's #1 D? They pass the ball very well, leading the nation in assists (many courtesy of Cassius Winston) per made field goal. They also rebound very well on offense, and that could be a big edge. They should also try to get to the line a lot, something Tech tends to allow, where the Spartans shoot 75%.
How can Texas Tech's offense up it's game vs. the Spartans' defense? There's not really much that stands out. Their main weakness, getting the ball stolen, is not something MSU's defense is good at, so that's a relief. They are also good at avoiding blocked shots, helping to negate one of MSU's strengths. Basically they'll have to be patient and get good shots, and make them. Easy, right?
Vegas Line:
Michigan St. by 2 1/2
Power rating: spread
Michigan St. by 3.1
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Michigan St.: 55.6%
Texas Tech: 44.4%
The Spartans are favored by roughly the same amount as pegged by the Strength power rating, which also gives them around a 55% chance to win. Historically 2-seeds beat 3-seeds almost 63% of the time.
Bottom line: Texas Tech has played great during the tournament, even a step up from Michigan State's run. But there's a big intangible to having been here before as a coach, and historically as a team. The Red Raiders might be due for a 'dud' game that they hit from time to time this year, as it doesn't look like their offense matches up well against the Spartan defense; if they don't shoot well, it will be bad for them. We see the Spartans advancing to the championship game.
Final prediction: Michigan State 75, Texas Tech 54
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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