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« 2019 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Duke vs. (2) Michigan State | Main | 2019 NCAA Tournament Final Four Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Michigan State vs. (3) Texas Tech »

April 01, 2019


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Matt Gilliam

What a prediction after all your stats say otherwise! Just goes to show that even people who know how to use stats can still build a bridge that will kill you. I've just got a hunch the specs on this concrete are different than what we measured. I'm going with my hunch!


Hi Matt...If March Madness were ruled by stats then all the 1-seeds would be in the Final Four. Unlike building a bridge, there is no certain way to predict a game correctly.

The stats say it's more likely Virginia will win, but in a given game, anything can happen. I chose one specific outcome from the many possibilities based on the stats and my own particular view of the intangibles. On the intangibles YMMV, which is why prior to making a prediction, I present "just the facts" including Vegas and power rating odds.

If I had just used the stats I never would have predicted Auburn would make it to the Final Four. The stats say they should have lost to North Carolina or Kentucky..but in those particular instances, they didn't.

I also had Virginia in the Final sometimes I do just listen to the stats!

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