SportsRatings: College Basketball

2019 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Duke vs. (2) Michigan State

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 1
Record: 32-5
Conference: ACC

vs.

Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 2
Record: 31-6
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Sunday, March 31
Time: 5:05 pm Eastern
Location: Washington, DC 
Region: East
Channel: CBS

 

This Elite Eight game is the only 1-seed vs. 2-seed matchup.

     Duke                               Michigan State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2              Strength:          #4
Pomeroy:           #4              Pomeroy:           #3
   Offense:  #7                       Offense:  #4
   Defense:  #7                       Defense:  #9
BPI:               #3              BPI:               #4
LRMC:              #2*             LRMC:              #3*
    *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #19             Tempo:             #193
Consistency:       #264            Consistency:       #48
2nd half season:   #9              2nd half season:   #4
Last 3 games:      #20             Last 3 games:      #8
Injury modifier:   #1              Injury modifier:   #4

 

These teams are very tight in the power ratings since Michigan State is a strong 2-seed. Since the tournament began, Michigan State moved ahead of Duke in Pomeroy's rankings, probably because recent games are weighted more; Duke remains ahead in Strength (equal-weighted games) and BPI (which contends to correct for injuries that weakened Duke's games without Zion Williamson). Duke remains ahead in LRMC since that rating isn't updated after Selection Sunday.

Michigan State has a slightly better offense and slightly less effective defense than Duke, but it's too close to call in either comparison. Duke prefers a fast tempo, while the Spartans tend to enforce a slower tempo on defense. Duke's consistency has been poor, mostly due to Zion's injury, while Michigan State is pretty steady. In recent play MSU has been much better; Duke's 2nd half of season slide is due to Zion's injury but they haven't fully recovered their prior form since then, and their NCAA tournament play has been pretty shaky.

Season overview: Duke

• Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =(2)Kentucky+34, =(5)Auburn+6, (14)Yale+33, =(3)Texas Tech+11, @(4)Florida St.+2, (1)Virginia+2, (11)St. John's+30, @(1)Virginia+10, @(7)Louisville+2, @(8)Syracuse+10, =(8)Syracuse+12, =(1)North Carolina+1, =(4)Florida St.+10, =(16)North Dakota St.+23, =(9)UCF+1, =(4)Virginia Tech+2
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (9): =(2)Kentucky+34, =(5)Auburn+6, =(3)Texas Tech+11, @(4)Florida St.+2, (1)Virginia+2, @(1)Virginia+10, =(1)North Carolina+1, =(4)Florida St.+10, =(4)Virginia Tech+2
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Gonzaga-2, (8)Syracuse-OT, (1)North Carolina-16, @(4)Virginia Tech-5, @(1)North Carolina-9
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: For some reason Duke was not the consensus #1 pre-season pick, despite having the #1, #2, and #3 recruits by some estimates. In game one Duke showed that they were THE team to beat, by crushing Kentucky 118-84. Duke shot to #1 in the polls.

There were bound to be growing pains with a team of freshmen, and they lost to eventual 1-seed Gonzaga by a bucket. They handed 5-seed Auburn and 3-Texas Tech their first losses. They lost to Syracuse when missing two starters, then cleaned out the ACC, beating 1-seed Virginia twice and engineering a 23-point comeback to beat Louisville before the showdown with North Carolina. We all know what happened there: the team fell apart without Zion Williamson, and Duke went into a slump, losing to Virginia Tech, almost losing to lowly Wake Forest, and losing to UNC again before the ship was righted with Zion's return. The three games they won in tournament play were solid and consistent, just what you want to see before entering the Big Dance. Amazingly, Duke has 8 wins against teams that reached the Sweet Sixteen—and 4 of their 5 losses are to the Sweet Sixteen as well! They played 9 of the 15 other teams.

Duke has weaknesses; they are a very bad 3-point shooting team at 30.2%. They're so good at 2-pointers (4th in the nation) that they rarely need to shoot the three. When they did against Virginia they shot the lights out, but that was probably a freak occurrence. On defense they're #4 in both blocks and steals. They're a great offensive rebounding team, but not great at free throws.

Zion Williamson isn't just Duke's most valuable player, he is the best in college basketball by a wide margin. In our Injury Modifier ratings, Duke is 3 points better when counting only the games where he's in the lineup; in the small sample (6 games) where he's gone, Duke played 13 points worse and slips to #18 in the nation. Williamson is imposing at 6' 7" and 285 pounds conservatively, and averages 22.1 ppg and 8.9 rebounds. And he's not even the leading scorer; that title goes to RJ Barrett at 22.9 (and 7.5 boards). Cam Reddish rounds out the double digit scorers at 13.7 ppg. Center Marques Bolden didn't play in the ACC tournament but returned for the first game.

RJ Barrett led with 26 points (and 14 rebounds) in the 85-62 win over North Dakota State, while Zion added 25. The end of the 77-76 UCF win was almost an instant replay of the 71-70 Wake Forest win on March 5: a missed shot with a put-back that goes in, rolls out, and rolls off the rim. Duke has the basketball gods to thank for that one, as well as Williamson's 32 points and 11 rebounds. The Blue Devils survived another close call against Virginia Tech, coming away with a 75-73 win as Tech's Admed Hill missed a point blank layin with 1 second remaining. Williamson had 23 while Tre Jones added 22.

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Season overview: Michigan State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (17): (11)Iowa+22, @(10)Florida+4, @(11)Ohio St.+9, (3)Purdue+18, (6)Maryland+14, @(10)Iowa+15, (10)Minnesota+24, @(5)Wisconsin+8, (11)Ohio St.+18, @(2)Michigan+7, (2)Michigan+12, =(11)Ohio St.+7, =(5)Wisconsin+12, =(2)Michigan+5, =(15)Bradley+11, =(10)Minnesota+20, =(3)LSU+17
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (3)Purdue+18, @(2)Michigan+7, (2)Michigan+12, =(2)Michigan+5, =(3)LSU+17
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =(4)Kansas-5, @(7)Louisville-OT, @(3)Purdue-10
• Other losses (3): Indiana-OT, @Illinois-5, @Indiana-1

Overview: Michigan State has more wins over the tournament field than any other team, another reason it's odd they didn't get a 1-seed. Perhaps they lack big wins over 1-seeds, but they beat fellow 2-seed Michigan three times, does that not create some separation? They also swept 10-seed Iowa, 5-seed Wisconsin, and 11-seed Ohio State. They were 1-1 vs. 3-seed Purdue and strangely got swept by Indiana, once during a bad 3-game swoon that was their only real time of weakness this season. They were pretty consistent, with their 101-33 win over Tennessee Tech (game 4) the only outrageous blowout win.

Not surprisingly, MSU does almost everything well: shooting 2s, 3s, free throws, assists, rebounding; and on defense defending the shot and blocking shots. Their one poor area is forcing turnovers, something they don't need to do when everything else is running smoothly. The Spartans lost key guard Joshua Langford midway through the season and reserve forward Kyle Ahrens is out too, leaving them with a 6-man rotation, but behind Cassius Winston (18.9 ppg) and Nick Ward (14.0), who returned for the Big Ten tournament, MSU is playing their best basketball at the right time. That didn't hold true for their first game, a 76-65 win over stubborn 15-seed Bradley where being shorthanded hurt them due to foul trouble; Winston led with 26 points. Xavier Tillman had 14 in the 70-50 Minnesota win. The Spartans reached the Elite Eight by dominating LSU 80-63 behind Aaron Henry's 20 points.

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Game Analysis: Duke has now survived two near-losses, one in a failed tip against UCF and again against Virginia Tech in a game that should have gone into overtime. Are the Blue Devils doing just enough to win or are they getting lucky? Playing they way they've been playing won't work against Michigan State; they need to find their mid-season form again or the game won't come down to a final shot—Michigan State will have a solid victory.

As we've mentioned, Duke ranks as the #1 team when they have Williamson, but they clearly aren't playing as well since his return as they did at their peak. As disrupted as they were by his loss they seem to not quite have jibed with his return, like they forgot how to play with him. It's not his injury—that's clearly gone, and he's as good as ever, maybe even better. But how they can barely edge a team like UCF with Williamson scoring 32 points is beyond me. It happened in his first game back: At the half, Zion was 9 of 9 shooting but Duke was only 6 points ahead of Syracuse. After struggling, then learning to play without him, the rest of the team has slacked off since his return. Their narrow win over Virginia Tech only highlights this; they were in control with just 30 seconds to go and almost let the Hokies win with a bad foul and missed free throw.

Cam Reddish missed the game against Virginia Tech and is a "game time decision" against Michigan State. It's bad news for the Blue Devils if he's gone. They've had two games without him, the other being the mid-season home loss to Syracuse.

Vegas Line:

Duke by   2

Power rating: spread

Duke by   1.4   w/Zion: Duke by 3.8    since Zion's return: MSU by 2.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Duke:    52.9% 
MSU:     47.1% 

Almost a bit surprisingly, Duke is favored by 2 points. I guess Vegas is expecting another crazy finish with Duke on top.

Our Strength power rating for the full season has Duke by a bit more than a point. If you use all games in which Zion Williamson has played, Duke is almost a 4-point favorite. But in the six games since Zion's return, they've played about 3 points worse than Michigan State's average.

In the Elite Eight, 1-seeds are exactly 50/50 vs. 2-seeds; including all Final Four games, they win 55%.

Bottom line: Michigan State meanwhile is playing better than the Blue Devils in the month of March, even after Zion's return for Duke. The bottom line is that Michigan State is consistent and is going to keep playing well, and Duke has to up their game to compete or they will lose. Unlike the last two Duke outings if the game is close it's not because Duke is sloppy, it's because Michigan State is actually on their level. If the Blue Devils are without Reddish again, another narrow win is probably the best they can hope for.

Final prediction: Duke 78, Michigan State 76

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Kentucky vs. (5) Auburn

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 30-6
Conference: SEC

vs.

Auburn Tigers
Seed: 5
Record: 29-9
Conference: SEC

Date: Sunday, March 31
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Location: Kansas City, MO 
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS

 

It's an all-SEC final in the Midwest region to decide who goes to the Final Four: Auburn for the first time ever, or Kentucky for the 18th time.

     Kentucky                           Auburn

Power Ratings

Strength:          #8              Strength:          #11
Pomeroy:           #7              Pomeroy:           #11
   Offense:  #12                      Offense:  #6
   Defense:  #8                       Defense:  #43
BPI:               #6              BPI:               #12
LRMC:              #9*             LRMC:              #16*
    *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #284            Tempo:             #153
Consistency:       #315            Consistency:       #309
2nd half season:   #3              2nd half season:   #11
Last 3 games:      #7              Last 3 games:      #3

 

These two Elite Eight teams are both borderline top 8 teams at best for the full season; Kentucky barely makes that grade, while Auburn falls short. But as we can see from their recent performance rankings, teams only get here when they've been playing well. Kentucky is #3 for the 2nd half of the season, and Auburn is #3 in performance in the tournament so far. Auburn's high rank comes due to their last 2 great games, and despite their first-round squeaker.

Kentucky is ahead, but not by much, in all the power ratings, and while Auburn has a slightly better offense, Kentucky's D is far better than Auburn's. Comparing them in a relevant way, Auburn has a very slight edge vs. Kentucky's D while the Wildcats on offense have a big advantage over Auburn's D. Tempo-wise, Kentucky is moderate on both offense and defense, while Auburn is fast on offense (#67) and slow on defense (#334).

Neither team has been consistent during the season, but both have become a lot more consistent over the last month.

Season overview: Kentucky

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =(1)North Carolina+8, @(7)Louisville+13, @(5)Auburn+2, (5)Mississippi St.+21, (4)Kansas+8, @(10)Florida+11, @(5)Mississippi St.+4, (2)Tennessee+17, (5)Auburn+27, @(8)Mississippi+4, (10)Florida+9, =(15)Abilene Christian+35, =(7)Wofford+6, =(3)Houston+4
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): =(1)North Carolina+8, @(5)Auburn+2, (2)Tennessee+17, (5)Auburn+27, =(3)Houston+4
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Duke-34, =(10)Seton Hall-OT, (3)LSU-2, @(2)Tennessee-19, =(2)Tennessee-4
• Other losses (1): @Alabama-2

Overview: Kentucky got off to a very slow start, losing big to Duke and having some tepid performances against low-rated opponents. They fell to Seton Hall in overtime and despite a big win over 1-seed North Carolina they were 10-3 after falling to Alabama. A few games later things picked up and they completed a 10-game run that included wins over 5-seed Auburn, 5-seed Mississippi State (twice), and 4-seed Kansas. They beat 2-seed Tennessee by 17 at home, but following their 2nd win over Auburn in game 27 they slumped a bit, losing to the Volunteers by 19 on the road, and falling in the rubber match in the SEC tournament in neutral territory. They went 4-4 against the Sweet Sixteen, now 5-4—with two wins over Auburn, home and away.

Kentucky is in the top ten in offensive rebounding percentage, and they defend the 2-point shot among the best, too. Four Wildcats average in double figures, but leading scorer PJ Washington (14.8, 7.5 rebounds) did not play in the Kentucky's first tournament game. Nevertheless they blasted through Abilene 79-44 behind Keldon Johnson's 25 points after leading 39-13 at the half. The Wildcats handled Wofford 62-56 by holding Fletcher Magee to 8 points on 0-for-12 3-point shooting; Reid Travis led with 14. Kentucky survived a late push to beat Houston 62-58 on Tyler Herro's 19 points, and Washington returned to add 16.

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Season overview: Auburn

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (9)Washington+22, (12)Murray St.+5, (10)Florida+14, (5)Mississippi St.+5, (2)Tennessee+4, =(10)Florida+3, =(2)Tennessee+20, =(12)New Mexico St.+1, =(4)Kansas+14, =(2)North Carolina+17
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Tennessee+20, =(2)North Carolina+17
  
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =(1)Duke-6, @(8)Mississippi-15, (2)Kentucky-2, @(5)Mississippi St.-8, @(3)LSU-5, (8)Mississippi-5, @(2)Kentucky-27
• Other losses (2): @North Carolina St.-7, @South Carolina-3

Overview: Auburn ended an up and down year with an 8-game winning streak punctuated by an emphatic 20-point win over Tennessee, the 2nd time in March that they beat the Volunteers. Those were the clear highlights of their 7 wins over tourney teams; they lost games vs. other highly seeded teams Duke, Kentucky (x2) and LSU; all of those teams reached the Sweet Sixteen.

Auburn's defense isn't on the level of its offense but they do a few things very well: block shots (#5) and get turnovers (#1 in nation, due to #1 ranking in steals). On offense Auburn shoots a lot of threes, and they're good enough at it to compensate for getting their shots blocked a lot and not getting to the line all that often. They also rebound pretty well. Three Tigers average in double figures led by Bryce Brown's 15.8. While last year's team had a very short roster, especially come tournament time, this year ten players average over 10 minutes per game. Jared Harper scored 17 and Auburn needed every one of them in their 79-78 win over New Mexico State; they needed some help from the Aggies, too, missing free throws at the end that could have won or tied the game. Brown had 25 as they cruised to beat Kansas 89-75. Auburn stayed with UNC for the first half and pulled away on a barrage of threes to win 97-80 as Chuma Okeke led with 20 points and 11 rebounds—even after being hurt midway through the 2nd half.

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Game Analysis: It's likely that Auburn will set the pace, running or going to half-court as necessary like they did against North Carolina; Kentucky is more malleable and will play at the pace of the game. Although, when Kentucky enforced a slower pace in their 2nd meeting, they won big at home over the Tigers.

Neither team has been consistent. For Kentucky this is more about their early trouble coming together as a team and their resultant improvement in the 2nd half of the season, while Auburn is fairly erratic depending on whether they make their 3's. Lately, though—during their long win streak—Auburn has been consistent with occasional upward spikes, which is pretty much what you want.

The teams have already met twice this year and both times Kentucky won. The first win—82-80 at Auburn—came during Kentucky's best stretch of the season, a 10-game win streak when the Wildcats played their very best. The 2nd win—80-53 at home—was Kentucky's best performance of the season. For Auburn, both losses came during a stretch where they went 4-6. So Kentucky was playing their best at the time, Auburn at their worst. It was also Auburn's last loss of the season to date.

There's no secret to Kentucky's wins in both games—they shot better than Auburn and outrebounded them, especially in the blowout win. The Wildcats shot 54% both times and scored 82 and 80 points; Auburn shot 46% and 33% and scored 80 and 53 points.

Injuries: Entering the tournament Auburn was at full strength and Kentucky was without their leading scorer, PJ Washington. Now, Washington is back while Auburn will be without starter Chuma Okeke. Washington averaged 18.5 points in the teams' two meetings, so having him back is crucial. Meanwhile Okeke added an average of 12.5 for the Tigers in those games. It's not quite a 31-point swing but the situation is very different from the one at Selection Sunday.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by   4

Power rating: spread

Kentucky by   1.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kentucky:     55.1% 
Auburn:       44.9% 

Kentucky is a solid favorite by Vegas, a few points ahead of the Strength estimate. This is probably due to Kentucky's better play recently, the results of the teams' previous meetings, and the favorable injury situation to Kentucky. Historically a 2-seed beats a 5-seed 100% of the time—though there have only ever been 4 meetings. So while Auburn would be bucking a trend, it's hardly like a 16-seed beating a 1-seed.

Bottom line: A lot of things point to Kentucky winning this game. The first two meetings didn't go Auburn's way, and Kentucky is back at full strength while Auburn has lost a key starter. Clearly at this point Kentucky should be the smart pick. But we picked Auburn to get to the Final Four initially, so let's justify an upset: by ignoring the teams' previous meetings, and focusing on how both teams have played since that meeting. In those games, Auburn is a playing a couple points better than the Wildcats. Note that this also requires ignoring Auburn's injury situation and pretending that they can keep making their threes at an incredible rate, but picking upsets always requires some suspension of disbelief.

Final prediction: Auburn 73, Kentucky 71

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Virginia vs. (3) Purdue

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Virginia Cavaliers
Seed: 1
Record: 32-3
Conference: ACC

vs.

Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 3
Record: 26-9
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Saturday, March 30
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: Louisville, KY
Region: South
Channel: TBS

 

Both teams survived a very tough test to reach the Elite Eight and here comes another one. Virginia is hoping for their first Final Four since 1984, while Purdue hasn't been since 1980.

     Virginia                           Purdue

Power Ratings

Strength:          #3              Strength:          #10
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #9
   Offense:  #3                       Offense:  #4
   Defense:  #3                       Defense:  #28
BPI:               #2              BPI:               #9
LRMC:              #4*             LRMC:              #10*
   *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #353            Tempo:             #263
Consistency:       #83             Consistency:       #163
2nd half season:   #2              2nd half season:   #5
Last 3 games:      #17             Last 3 games:      #5

These are clearly two great teams, both top ten, and both would probably be top 5 if you look just at the 2nd half of the season. Virginia is either the #1 (Pomeroy), #2 (BPI), #3 (Strength), or #4 (LRMC) team in the country. Purdue is consensus #9 or #10. The comparison of offensive and defensive efficiency is interesting: Virginia rates higher in both, and by cross-comparison in both matchups. The much bigger advantage is when they have the ball. In other words, Virginia might have to win this game with offense, not defense.

Purdue's hope is that their better play over the last 3 games continues. However, that difference is almost completely due to their 26-point win over Villanova; the other games were about even with the Cavaliers.

Season overview: Virginia

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =(5)Wisconsin+7, @(6)Maryland+5, (8)VCU+8, (4)Florida St.+13, (4)Virginia Tech+22, @(1)North Carolina+8, @(4)Virginia Tech+6, @(7)Louisville+12, @(8)Syracuse+26, (7)Louisville+5, =Gardner Webb+15, =(9)Oklahoma+12, =(12)Oregon+4
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (4)Florida St.+13, (4)Virginia Tech+22, @(1)North Carolina+8, @(4)Virginia Tech+6, =(12)Oregon+4
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @(1)Duke-2, (1)Duke-10, =(4)Florida St.-10
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: Virginia's 2019 season was pretty much like their 2018 season—lots of wins, and very few losses. They lost only 3 times. The first loss to Duke was a "good" loss, by 2 points on Duke's home court. The next time they lost at home by 10—which again wasn't bad considering Duke inexplicably shot the lights out from behind the arc. The third loss was the troubling one, loing to Florida State by 10 on a neutral court. It was their worst performance of the year. Afterwards there were some concerning locker room quotes about how they felt they got "punked." Hopefully that game allowed them to relive, and reject, the bad feelings from the UMBC loss. But even if it renews them in the short term, the fact that they faltered in the ACC tournament doesn't seem to bode well for their chances of winning the Big Dance. Has reaching the Elite Eight exorcised their demons?

On the upside, the season included wins over 10 tournament teams, including 1-seed North Carolina. They didn't really play a lot of top seeds outside of Duke. Sure, they can beat 4-seeds, but that only gets you to the Elite Eight. Does having a slightly weak SOS harm them? People ask the question about Gonzaga all the time, but Virginia's SOS is just borderline top 25.

Virginia's offense is actually at least the equal of it's defense, believe it or not. That's one thing that should propel the team through the brackets. They're shooting the ball extremely well, especially three-pointers, and limiting turnovers. On defense they're basically the same as last year, making teams shoot poor percentage shots. Kyle Guy leads the team at 15.6 ppg, while De'Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome add 15.1 and 13.0 respectively. Hunter missed last year's game, and after watching from the bench I can only imagine he's ready to go.

Hunter certainly was ready to go, leading the team with 23 points against Gardner Webb. The game looked like deja vu until the 2nd half started and Virginia righted the ship, winning 71-56. Against Oklahoma the Cavaliers looked like their old selves, winning methodically 63-51 behind Mamadi Diakite's 14 points. Virginia outlasted a tough Oregon team, 53-49; Ty Jerome had 16.

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Season overview: Purdue

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (6)Maryland+2, (11)Belmont+11, (10)Iowa+16, @(5)Wisconsin+OT, @(11)Ohio St.+12, (2)Michigan St.+10, (10)Minnesota+10, (11)Ohio St.+35, =(14)Old Dominion+13, =(6)Villanova+26, =(2)Tennessee+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (2)Michigan St.+10, =(2)Tennessee+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Virginia Tech-6, @(4)Florida St.-1, @(2)Michigan-19, @(2)Michigan St.-18, @(6)Maryland-14, @(10)Minnesota-4, =(10)Minnesota-2
• Other losses (2): @Texas-4, =Notre Dame-8

Overview: Purdue got off to a rocky start this season. From nearly the beginning they ranked high in the Strength power rating, which does not carry forward any bias from the previous season to smooth things out. Despite their 6-5 start, they ranked among the very top teams, which was probably of no consolation to their disappointed fans. They lost to 4-seeds Virginia Tech and Florida State in close games and were beaten handily by 2-seed Michigan, and suffered losses to Texas and Notre Dame to boot. But the power ratings were right; Purdue's luck changed and from there the Boilermakers went on a 16-2 tear including a signature win over 2-seed Michigan State. They lost 2 of their last 3—strangely, both narrow losses to 10-seed Minnesota; is this a return to their bad luck days, or a brief aberration? Purdue's tournament hopes lie in the balance. By reaching the Elite Eight, it looks like they've pulled out of their mini-slump.

Both on offense and defense Purdue does almost everything well but nothing spectacular. Rebounding is probably their strong suit, as well as avoiding turnovers. They depend a lot on Big Ten leader Carsen Edwards' 23.0 points per game to keep their offense running smoothly; only one other player is in low double digits. Purdue beat St. Mary's 61-48 in the first round on Edwards' 26 points. He was even more amazing in the 87-61 blowout of defending champ Villanova, scoring 42 points and making 9 of 16 3's. Against Tennessee, Purdue looked like the Volunteers against Iowa, building a huge lead and bleeding it away before winning in overtime. Carsen Edwards had 29 and Ryan Cline added 27 in the 99-94 win.

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Game Analysis: When Purdue has the ball it's pretty evenly matched. As great as Carsen Edwards is, Virginia's defense is pretty stifling inside the arc, and he only shoots 35% from beyond it. Even if he gets hot, the Cavalier defense normally limits the supporting cast.

On the other side, Virginia's offense is a great offense this year, and much better than Purdue's D. They spread the scoring around enough that you can't stop everyone. Virginia has been a great defensive team for years during their recent greatness, but this year's offense is head and shoulders above the other incarnations. Purdue's defense works by making the other team take a bad shot after using a lot of the clock; Virginia's offense works by taking a good shot late in the clock.

Purdue played great in building a lead on Tennessee, but they let it drain away and nearly lost the game. Virginia had a pretty tough game against the hottest team in the country, Oregon, but they didn't give the Ducks any big runs. If they can stick to playing their game the whole time, they generally win.

It's pretty amazing that these two programs, each among the best in the nation, haven't reached the Final Four for at least 35 years. 17 appearances in the tournament for Virginia and 27 for Purdue since their last Final Four. One of the teams will make it on Saturday.

Vegas Line:

Virginia by   4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Virginia by   4.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Virginia:        61.9% 
Purdue:          38.1% 

The Vegas line almost exactly matches our estimate from the Strength power rating; the resultant percentage to win is close to the 64% 1-seed vs. 3-seed odds in the Elite Eight (62.5% counting the Final Four).

Bottom line: Since their slow start against Gardner Webb Virginia has been methodically taking care of business. Purdue's had a middling game, a fantastic game, and a hybrid great/terrible game. They are a bit less under control and that will be the difference.

Final prediction: Virginia 66, Purdue 62

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Gonzaga vs. (3) Texas Tech

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 33-3
Conference: West Coast

vs.

Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 3
Record: 29-6
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Saturday, March 30
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: Anaheim, CA
Region: West
Channel: TBS

 

Gonzaga has the #1 offense in the country, while Texas Tech is #1 on defense. Something's gotta give.

     Gonzaga                            Texas Tech

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #6
Pomeroy:           #2              Pomeroy:           #5
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #31
   Defense:  #13                      Defense:  #1
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #7
LRMC:              #1*             LRMC:              #8*
 *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (off/def):   #66 (#7/#349)   Tempo:             #235 (#261/#202)
Consistency:       #309            Consistency:       #307
2nd half season:   #1              2nd half season:   #7
Last 3 games:      #2              Last 3 games:      #1

 

1-seed Gonzaga's win over Florida State was impressive enough to give the Zags the #1 spot in the BPI (just barely). They're now #1 in 3 of the 4 power ratings we list, including the end-of-regular-season LRMC. But the Red Raiders also made a big jump after dominating Michigan, and they're up to #6 in Strength and #5 in Pomeroy (they ended the season at #10 and #9).

But the real interesting numbers are Gonzaga's #1 offense and Texas Tech's #1 defense. On the other side of the court Gonzaga has the advantage. The tempo might be schizophrenic, as Gonzaga is super-fast on offense (#7) and forces long possessions on defense (#349); Texas Tech takes their time with the ball. For the 3 games of the tournament so far, Gonzaga ranks #2 while the Red Raiders are #1.

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =(1)Duke+2, (16)North Dakota St.+42, (9)Washington+2, (11)Saint Mary's+48, @(11)Saint Mary's+14, =(16)Fairleigh Dickinson+38, =(9)Baylor+12, =(4)Florida St.+14
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(1)Duke+2, =(4)Florida St.+14
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =(2)Tennessee-3, @(1)North Carolina-13, =(11)Saint Mary's-13
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: Gonzaga started the year with great expectations again and all systems were go when they beat Duke (game 6) in the final of the Maui Classic. They had two other big challenges left and they narrowly failed both, falling to 2-seed Tennessee and 1-seed North Carolina. They also beat a 16-seed and a 9-seed, but Duke is the win that counts, and the one that gave them a 1-seed. The Zags beat St. Mary's twice—once by 48 points—before losing to the Gaels in the finals of the West Coast Conference tournament. That loss doesn't knock Gonzaga out of Final Four consideration, as they had nothing to play for. But for us it probably knocks them out of national championship consideration; great teams don't collapse just because. We will soon find out how much heart this team has, or doesn't.

Gonzaga boasts the most efficient offense in the country (also known as, the best). They're great on defense too, and they place a schizophrenic tempo: extremely fast on offense (#7) and very slow on defense (#349 of 353) as they stifle their opponents' options. They're #1 in 2-point shooting, #1 in effective shooting percentage, and they suffer the fewest blocked shots of any team. They're similarly good on defense at making opponents miss. A lot of these stats aren't opponent-adjusted, so they inflate the Zags greatness a bit. But their power ratings and win results speak for themselves.

Rui Hachimura is the team leader in scoring at 20.1 ppg (6.6 boards); Brandon Clarke is #2 at 16.5 and leads with 8.4 rebounds. Zach Norvell Jr adds 15.3 points, while Josh Perkins (11.0) leads in assists with 6.5. Gonzaga beat Fairleigh Dicksinson 87-49 after leading 53-17 at the half; Hachimura led with 21. Then Clarke absolutely too over the Baylor game, hitting 15 of 18 shots for 36 points in the 83-71 win. They got revenge on Florida State for last year's tourney loss, winning 72-58 as Hachimura led with 17; Clarke added 15 as well as 12 rebounds.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Texas Tech

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (15)Abilene Christian+34, (4)Kansas St.+6, (9)Oklahoma+7, @(9)Oklahoma+12, (9)Baylor+25, (4)Kansas+29, @(6)Iowa St.+7, =(14)Northern Kentucky+15, =(6)Buffalo+17, =(2)Michigan+19
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(2)Michigan+19
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Duke-11, (6)Iowa St.-4, @(9)Baylor-11, @(4)Kansas St.-13, @(4)Kansas-16
• Other losses (1): =West Virginia-5

Overview: Texas Tech raced to a 10-0 start against a mostly easy field before losing to 1-seed Duke in New York. They won 5 more and were 15-1 when they hit a 3-game skid courtesy of tourney teams Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. Kansas added to the pile-on, but then the Raiders went on an even more incredible recovery, winning 9 straight including wins over Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, and Iowa State. They shockingly lost to West Virginia, though, a team they beat by 31 at the start of the last streak.

On defense, Texas Tech holds teams to the 2nd lowest combined shooting average in the nation, and they are #7 in blocked shots per opportunity. They get a lot of turnovers, too. It all adds up to perhaps the nation's best defensive play. On offense, Jarrett Culver leads the team with an 18.5 ppg average. The Red Raiders took care of business against Northern Kentucky, 72-57, with Culver's 29 leading the way. All five starters were in double figures for the 91-74 win over Buffalo. The Raiders then dominated Michigan 63-44 to reach the Elite Eight for the 2nd straight year; Culver had 22.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both teams have been fantastic during the tournament, but just prior to that, they each had their worst performance of the season. Gonzaga was defeated at home by St. Mary's 60-47, while Texas Tech fell to West Virginia 79-74. Texas Tech previously had beaten West Virginia by 31, while Gonzaga beat St. Mary's twice, by an average of 31 points! Needless to say, if either team repeats that performance they will get killed. But let's assume both rise to the occasion and play their best.

What will the matchup of Gonzaga's #1 offense and Texas Tech's #1 defense look like? In some areas it's hard to tell. Gonzaga is the #1 effective shooting team in America, while Texas Tech is #2 in defending shots. The Zags are best at 2-pointers, shooting nearly 62%, while Tech limits opponents to 42%. What about turnovers? Texas Tech's D is #11 in gaining turnovers; Gonzaga is #11 in fewest turnovers on offense. Tech's D is 8th in blocks, while Gonzaga has suffered the fewest blocks of any offense. In terms of rebounding there is a difference; though neither team is great, Gonzaga rates better on rebounding on offense than Texas Tech does on defense.

If that ends a stalemate, then the game will be decided when Texas Tech has the ball. Here the pace will be slow as Tech's #261 offensive tempo mixes with Gonzaga's #349 defensive tempo. The Raiders are decent shooting team, but not great; they make 53% of 2-pointers while Gonzaga's D is #6, limiting opponents to 43%. They're about evenly matched on blocked shots but Gonzaga gets a lot of steals and Texas Tech is vulnerable there. Again, neither team is a great rebounding team but Gonzaga on defense is a bit better than Tech is at offensive rebounding.

Interestingly neither team is a great 3-point shooting team, both making about 36.5%. Gonzaga shoots free throws better, 76% to 73%. Gonzaga is also likely to get to the line more often given the teams' foul rates, so the charity stripe might be where the game is really decided.

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by   4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Gonzaga by   6.6

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga:        62.8% 
Texas Tech:     37.2% 

Our Strength power rating has Gonzaga at #1 and a near 7-point favorite based on full-season results, but Vegas is giving the Red Raiders an acknowledgement for their recent play. 1-seeds beat 3-seeds about 64% of the time in the Elite Eight, and when you add in meetings in the Final Four it's 20 of 32 or 62.5%, very similar to the odds we have for Gonzaga here.

Bottom line: Gonzaga's defense is a bit too much better than Texas Tech's offense, even if the Red Raiders can make up some of the difference with their own D. Texas Tech has played the best in the tournament so far, but Gonzaga isn't far behind and their results have been more consistent. It looks like a 2-point game either way but we give the tip to the Zags.

Final prediction: Gonzaga 72, Texas Tech 70

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Kentucky vs. (3) Houston

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 29-6
Conference: SEC

vs.

Houston Cougars
Seed: 3
Record: 33-3
Conference: American

Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 9:59 pm Eastern
Location: Kansas City, MO 
Region: Midwest
Channel: TBS

 

The last time Houston was in the Sweet Sixteen Hakeem Olajuwon was playing for the Cougars, and back then he was still known as Akeem. Kentucky was here last year.

     Kentucky                           Houston

Power Ratings

Strength:          #8              Strength:          #13
Pomeroy:           #8              Pomeroy:           #12
   Offense:  #11                      Offense:  #21
   Defense:  #9                       Defense:  #12
BPI:               #7              BPI:               #12
LRMC:              #9*             LRMC:              #16*
    *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #274            Tempo:             #247
Consistency:       #321            Consistency:       #167
2nd half season:   #4              2nd half season:   #10
Last 2 games:      #6              Last 2 games:      #1

 

It's pretty even on paper between 2-seed Kentucky and 3-seed Houston. Just a few spots separate them in each power rating, and their offenses and defenses are all in the top 25. There is a bit of separation there; Houston's D is a match for Kentucky's offense, but their offense isn't as efficient and Kentucky's D has the edge when the Cougars have the ball. Both play a somewhat slow tempo, and have improved their game in the 2nd half of the season. Looking at just the first two rounds of the tournament, Kentucky has been excellent and Houston's performances were probably the best.

Season overview: Kentucky

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =(1)North Carolina+8, @(7)Louisville+13, @(5)Auburn+2, (5)Mississippi St.+21, (4)Kansas+8, @(10)Florida+11, @(5)Mississippi St.+4, (2)Tennessee+17, (5)Auburn+27, @(8)Mississippi+4, (10)Florida+9, =(15)Abilene Christian+35, =(7)Wofford+6
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(1)North Carolina+8, @(5)Auburn+2, (2)Tennessee+17, (5)Auburn+27
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Duke-34, =(10)Seton Hall-OT, (3)LSU-2, @(2)Tennessee-19, =(2)Tennessee-4
• Other losses (1): @Alabama-2

Overview: Kentucky got off to a very slow start, losing big to Duke and having some tepid performances against low-rated opponents. They fell to Seton Hall in overtime and despite a big win over 1-seed North Carolina they were 10-3 after falling to Alabama. A few games later things picked up and they completed a 10-game run that included wins over 5-seed Auburn, 5-seed Mississippi State (twice), and 4-seed Kansas. They beat 2-seed Tennessee by 17 at home, but following their 2nd win over Auburn in game 27 they slumped a bit, losing to the Volunteers by 19 on the road, and falling in the rubber match in the SEC tournament in neutral territory. They went 4-4 against the Sweet Sixteen.

Kentucky is in the top ten in offensive rebounding percentage, and they defend the 2-point shot among the best, too. Four Wildcats average in double figures, but leading scorer PJ Washington (14.8, 7.5 rebounds) did not play in the Kentucky's first tournament game. Nevertheless they blasted through Abilene 79-44 behind Keldon Johnson's 25 points after leading 39-13 at the half. The Wildcats handled Wofford 62-56 by holding Fletcher Magee to 8 points on 0-for-12 3-point shooting; Reid Travis led with 14.

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Season overview: Houston

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (12)Oregon+4, (3)LSU+6, (13)Saint Louis+4, (8)Utah St.+10, (11)Temple+7, @(9)UCF+9, (7)Cincinnati+7, @(7)Cincinnati+16, =(14)Georgia St.+29, =(11)Ohio St.+15
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (12)Oregon+4, (3)LSU+6
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @(11)Temple-4, (9)UCF-5, =(7)Cincinnati-12
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: Losses for Houston were few and far between this season, and they only lost to tournament-bound teams. It took until game 16 for Houston to lose at Temple; by then they'd beaten four tournament teams including 3-seed LSU. Over the next 12 games, all wins, they got their revenge on Temple, and beat UCF and Cincinnati. At 28-1, they lost at home to UCF, beat Cincy again (on the road), made their way to the AAC final, and lost to Cincinnati on a neutral court. The Cougars' last six games look like a mess of greatness bookended by two terrible games. What should we make of the home loss to UCF, and falling to a Bearcat team they beat twice? Houston lost their consistency in the last six games which casts doubt on a deep tournament run, but they played two of their very best games over this stretch, too—the win at Cincinnati and the 84-45 blowout of UConn. By beating both Oregon and LSU in the pre-conference season Houston went 2-0 vs. the 2019 Sweet Sixteeen.

Houston plays great offense and defense, but on D they boast the #1 shot defense in the country; they're #2 against 3-pointers and #5 against the 2. They block a lot of shots, too. On offense the team rebounds very well. Corey Davis Jr leads the team in scoring with 16.7 ppg; he had 26 in Houston's 84-55 first round win over Georgia State, Houston's 3rd game in the last 5 that ranks as one of their best. They followed that up with a 74-59 win over Ohio State that is also one of their best; Davis led with 21.

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Game Analysis: Houston is really playing well lately. Before the tournament started they looked a bit erratic, with two great games followed by a flat game and a loss. But two more great games later and that makes 4 out 6 stellar efforts. Houston is not normally inconsistent, so it's likely the sub-par games were the anomaly. In that same span Kentucky has played well, too, but has only one great game, possibly two.

PJ Washington hasn't played during the tournament and is still questionable for the Wildcats. That didn't matter against Abilene Christian, but it would have against Wofford if the Terriers had shot their threes even close to the normal rate. Against Houston his absence will be a factor. They can overcome it certainly but they need their leading scorer to be at full strength. A video of PJ walking without his cast has emerged and suggests he might be ready by Friday.

Kentucky shoots 3's at a very low rate, which kind of waste's Houston's #1 defense against the three. But the Cougars are #5 against 2-pointers. What Kentucky does well on offense is rebound and get to the line; Houston rebound fairly well on defense, but they do foul quite a bit. Look for a lot of UK points on 2nd chance shots and the charity stripe. Houston isn't a great shooting team; they rebound well but other than that, they don't excel in one area. They're decent at about everything. Kentucky's D defends 2-point shots really well and gets quite a few blocks.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by   3

Power rating: spread

Kentucky by   2.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kentucky:     57.4% 
Houston:      42.6% 

Vegas and our Strength power rating agree that UK is a slim favorite. 2-seeds normally win 63% of these matchups and this one looks a bit tighter than that.

Bottom line: There are a lot of reasons to think Houston will win this game. They're playing great, they are probably hungrier to get to the Elite Eight since it's been 35 years rather than 1 year for Kentucky, and the Wildcats might still be missing their leading scorer. Because I didn't have either team advancing, there's no original pick to stick to...and because I feel bad for picking a 15-seed and then a 7-seed to upset the Wildcats, I think I should go with them so as not to make their fans think I'm biased in some way. Hope it doesn't jinx them!

Final prediction: Kentucky 68, Houston 66

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Duke vs. (4) Virginia Tech

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 1
Record: 31-5
Conference: ACC

vs.

Virginia Tech Hokies
Seed: 4
Record: 26-8
Conference: ACC

Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 9:39 pm Eastern
Location: Washington, DC 
Region: East
Channel: CBS

 

Virginia Tech is one of two teams to beat Duke where Duke didn't return the favor—now's their chance. It's also the Hokies' chance to go up 2-0 on the Blue Devils.

     Duke                               Virginia Tech

Power Ratings

Strength:          #2              Strength:          #11
Pomeroy:           #4              Pomeroy:           #11
   Offense:  #7                       Offense:  #12
   Defense:  #6                       Defense:  #19
BPI:               #3              BPI:               #11
LRMC:              #2*             LRMC:              #14*
    *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #18             Tempo:             #332
Consistency:       #268            Consistency:       #54
2nd half season:   #8              2nd half season:   #16
Last 2 games:      #29             Last 2 games:      #28
Injury modifier:   #1              Injury modifier:   #11

 

This all-ACC matchup is pretty even for a 1-seed vs. a 4-seed. It's not Duke making it that way: the Hokies are a very strong 4-seed, nearly a top ten team and ranking in the top 20 in both offense and defense. The teams are near-opposites in tempo and consistency, with the latter mostly due to Duke's temporary loss of Zion Williamson. Virginia Tech also lost a starter for several games and got him back; Justin Robinson missed 11 games, but it didn't impact the Hokies as much as losing Zion did the Blue Devils. Virginia Tech would be ranked #12 in our Strength rating if they lost Robinson again, while Duke would fall to #17 without Williamson. Using just the sample of games at full strength, Duke moves to #1 while the Hokies also improve but stay at #11.

Neither team has played particularly well in the tournament so far, with Virginia Tech ranking #28 and Duke #29 over the last 2 games; among the Sweet Sixteen teams, they rank #13 and #14.

Season overview: Duke

• Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =(2)Kentucky+34, =(5)Auburn+6, (14)Yale+33, =(3)Texas Tech+11, @(4)Florida St.+2, (1)Virginia+2, (11)St. John's+30, @(1)Virginia+10, @(7)Louisville+2, @(8)Syracuse+10, =(8)Syracuse+12, =(1)North Carolina+1, =(4)Florida St.+10, =(16)North Dakota St.+23, =(9)UCF+1
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (8): =(2)Kentucky+34, =(5)Auburn+6, =(3)Texas Tech+11, @(4)Florida St.+2, (1)Virginia+2, @(1)Virginia+10, =(1)North Carolina+1, =(4)Florida St.+10
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Gonzaga-2, (8)Syracuse-OT, (1)North Carolina-16, @(4)Virginia Tech-5, @(1)North Carolina-9
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: For some reason Duke was not the consensus #1 pre-season pick, despite having the #1, #2, and #3 recruits by some estimates. In game one Duke showed that they were THE team to beat, by crushing Kentucky 118-84. Duke shot to #1 in the polls.

There were bound to be growing pains with a team of freshmen, and they lost to eventual 1-seed Gonzaga by a bucket. They handed 5-seed Auburn and 3-Texas Tech their first losses. They lost to Syracuse when missing two starters, then cleaned out the ACC, beating 1-seed Virginia twice and engineering a 23-point comeback to beat Louisville before the showdown with North Carolina. We all know what happened there: the team fell apart without Zion Williamson, and Duke went into a slump, losing to Virginia Tech, almost losing to lowly Wake Forest, and losing to UNC again before the ship was righted with Zion's return. The three games they won in tournament play were solid and consistent, just what you want to see before entering the Big Dance. Amazingly, Duke has 8 wins against teams that reached the Sweet Sixteen—and 4 of their 5 losses are to the Sweet Sixteen as well! They played 9 of the 15 other teams.

Duke has weaknesses; they are a very bad 3-point shooting team at 30.2%. They're so good at 2-pointers (4th in the nation) that they rarely need to shoot the three. When they did against Virginia they shot the lights out, but that was probably a freak occurrence. On defense they're #4 in both blocks and steals. They're a great offensive rebounding team, but not great at free throws.

Zion Williamson isn't just Duke's most valuable player, he is the best in college basketball by a wide margin. In our Injury Modifier ratings, Duke is 3 points better when counting only the games where he's in the lineup; in the small sample (6 games) where he's gone, Duke played 13 points worse and slips to #18 in the nation. Williamson is imposing at 6' 7" and 285 pounds conservatively, and averages 22.1 ppg and 8.9 rebounds. And he's not even the leading scorer; that title goes to RJ Barrett at 22.9 (and 7.5 boards). Cam Reddish rounds out the double digit scorers at 13.7 ppg. Center Marques Bolden didn't play in the ACC tournament but returned for the first game.

RJ Barrett led with 26 points (and 14 rebounds) in the 85-62 win over North Dakota State, while Zion added 25. The end of the 77-76 UCF win was almost an instant replay of the 71-70 Wake Forest win on March 5: a missed shot with a put-back that goes in, rolls out, and rolls off the rim. Duke has the basketball gods to thank for that one, as well as Williamson's 32 points and 11 rebounds.

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Season overview: Virginia Tech

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Gardner Webb+28, =(13)Northeastern+28, =(3)Purdue+6, =(9)Washington+12, (8)Syracuse+22, (1)Duke+5, =(13)Saint Louis+14, =(12)Liberty+9
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(3)Purdue+6, (1)Duke+5
• Losses to tournament teams (6): @(1)Virginia-22, @(1)North Carolina-21, (7)Louisville-8, (1)Virginia-6, @(4)Florida St.-OT, =(4)Florida St.-OT
• Other losses (2): @Penn St.-1, @Clemson-8

Overview: Virginia Tech quietly had a great season; they weren't even too heralded at 14-1, probably because they had lost to Penn State and the win over 3-seed Purdue didn't look impressive yet. They lost big games to North Carolina and Virginia and were written off as 2nd-rate. But their next three wins were incredible, especially the 47-24 humiliation of North Carolina State (they say it was non-conference SOS, but I think it was that game that kept the Wolfpack out of the tournament). The Hokies lost to Virginia again, then they beat Duke—but without Zion, doesn't count right? They lost two of their last four (both were overtime losses to 4-seed FSU). So no one really expects much from Virginia Tech. If you look at their chart, they're playing high-level, consistent basketball—the kind that allows you to make a deep tournament run. The Hokies went 2-5 vs. the rest of the Sweet Sixteen.

The Hokies are in the top ten nationally in field goal shooting, and nearly top 25 in turnovers on defense. They also force teams to take long shots (50% of opponent attempts are threes) and use up a long time trying to penetrate the zone. Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads four players in double figures (that's with Justin Robinson back in the lineup, as expected) with 16.6 ppg. Alexander-Walker had 20 points in VT's 66-52 win over Saint Louis. The Hokies beat upstart Liberty 67-58 behind Kerry Blackshear's 19.

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Game Analysis: Almost every national champ has a big test along the way, a game they win by a single basket or in overtime. We picked Duke to win it all and figured that test would come. We didn't think it would come so soon against Central Florida! In fact, it was this matchup, vs. Virginia Tech, that we pegged early on as Duke's near-loss. Now that they faced a test against UCF, it probably makes it less likely that the same thing happens against the Hokies.

Though Duke ranks as the #1 team when they have Williamson, they clearly aren't playing as well since his return as they did at their peak. As disrupted as they were by his loss they seem to not quite have jibed with his return, like they forgot how to play with him. It's not his injury—that's clearly gone, and he's as good as ever, maybe even better. But how they can barely edge a team like UCF with Williamson scoring 32 points is beyond me. It happened in his first game back: At the half, Zion was 9 of 9 shooting but Duke was only 6 points ahead of Syracuse. After struggling, then learning to play without him, the rest of the team has slacked off since his return.

While Florida State tries to portray itself as the 'forgotten' team in the ACC amidst all the 1-seeds, Virginia Tech could claim that crown, too. They're just as good (they lost to FSU twice, both in overtime) and a lot more overlooked than the Seminoles. With both teams playing 1-seeds before the weekend, both have the chance to get some major notice.

Most people are discounting the first meeting between these teams—a 77-72 home win for Virginia Tech—since Duke didn't have Zion Williamson in the lineup at the time. That's a pretty reasonable stance to take, as the Blue Devils are vastly better when they have him. Yet they don't seem to be quite the same as before, so by that measure the game could be very close. Then we have to consider psychology. If the Blue Devils had defeated the Hokies easily in their first meeting, we could expect to find Duke napping a bit. But they'll have motivation—and a bit of fear—from losing the first game. We think we'll see the Blue Devils at their best this time around.

Starter Ty Outlaw, Virginia Tech's 5th leading scorer, might miss the game after being charged with pot possession; no announcement has been made. UPDATE: Outlaw has passed a drug test and will play.

Vegas Line:

Duke by   7

Power rating: spread

Duke by   7.3

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Duke:          71.7% 
Virginia Tech: 28.3% 

Vegas and our power rating both put the expected margin at 7 points. And Duke's 72% chance to win almost exactly matches the historical odds for a 1-seed to beat a 4-seed.

The Blue Devils have played 5 games since Zion Williamson's return, and they're playing a few rungs lower than before he wast hurt, at maybe #5 in the nation. That's just 3 points better than Virginia Tech. And if we look at their play during the tournament, these teams are neck and neck.

Bottom line: Virginia Tech beat Duke before and they can do it again if Duke doesn't take them seriously. But we expect Duke to be motivated for a number of reasons and play their best against Virginia Tech. When they do that, no one can beat them.

Final prediction: Duke 78, Virginia Tech 68

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) North Carolina vs. (5) Auburn

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 29-6
Conference: ACC

vs.

Auburn Tigers
Seed: 5
Record: 28-9
Conference: SEC

Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 7:29 pm Eastern
Location: Kansas City, MO 
Region: Midwest
Channel: TBS

 

The Tar Heels are going for their 3rd Elite Eight in the last 4 years, while Auburn has been there just once, in 1986.

     North Carolina                     Auburn

Power Ratings

Strength:          #5              Strength:          #12
Pomeroy:           #6              Pomeroy:           #13
   Offense:  #8                       Offense:  #6
   Defense:  #11                      Defense:  #44
BPI:               #5              BPI:               #13
LRMC:              #5*             LRMC:              #11*
    *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #6              Tempo:             #158
Consistency:       #295            Consistency:       #296
2nd half season:   #3              2nd half season:   #13
Last 2 games:      #13             Last 2 games:      #17

 

North Carolina is a weak 1-seed but just by a bit, while Auburn is a very, very strong 5-seed. That's why they were actually favored over 4-seed Kansas. So UNC will be a slim favorite, with most of their advantage coming when they have the ball and are pushing the tempo to the breaking point. But it's hard to know exactly what to expect with either of these teams, since UNC is #295 in consistency and Auburn is #296.

Season overview: North Carolina

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): @(7)Wofford+11, (1)Gonzaga+13, (4)Virginia Tech+21, @(7)Louisville+10, @(1)Duke+16, (4)Florida St.+18, (8)Syracuse+8, (1)Duke+9, =(7)Louisville+13, =(16)Iona+15, =(9)Washington+22
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): (1)Gonzaga+13, (4)Virginia Tech+21, @(1)Duke+16, (4)Florida St.+18, (1)Duke+9
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(2)Michigan-17, =(2)Kentucky-8, (7)Louisville-21, (1)Virginia-8, =(1)Duke-1
• Other losses (1): =Texas-3

Overview: North Carolina kicked off with a win over eventual 7-seed Wofford, but lost to Texas and then lost big to 2-seed Michigan before rebounding with a neutral court defeat of 1-seed Gonzaga, before losing to 2-seed Kentucky! Is there any question the Tar Heels played the toughest schedule? We haven't even gotten to the ACC, where they were dumped by 7-seed Louisville on their own home court (game 16) and later returned the favor (game 21) and won the rubber match, too (game 32). They couldn't beat 1-seed Virginia at home but they upset Duke in Durham due to Zion's shoe malfunction. They beat the Zion-less Duke again a few weeks later at home, but Duke eeked out a 1-point win on the third try with Zion in the lineup. All told UNC played every other 1-seed, going 3-2, and 0-2 against 2-seeds. They went 5-4 against the Sweet Sixteen.

North Carolina plays the basketball version of Fast and Furious, passing the ball downcourt in seconds and taking quick shots. They shoot pretty well, but the key to their success might be solid offensive and defensive rebounding. They also have some talented 3-point shooters. Coby White (16.3 ppg) was getting a lot of attention as someone who could make it (and take it) from anywhere, but he's not nearly their best 3-point shooter; that would be Cameron Johnson (16.9 ppg, 46.5% on threes). Luke Maye adds 14.7 points and 10.5 rebounds. The 88-73 win over 16-seed Iona was no gimme; the Gaels kept it close for a half before the Tar Heels pulled away to win 88-73 on Johnson's 21 points. They had an easier time with Washington, winning 81-59 as Maye (14 rebounds) and Nassir Little both had 20 points.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Auburn

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (9)Washington+22, (12)Murray St.+5, (10)Florida+14, (5)Mississippi St.+5, (2)Tennessee+4, =(10)Florida+3, =(2)Tennessee+20, =(12)New Mexico St.+1, =(4)Kansas+14
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (2)Tennessee+4, =(2)Tennessee+20
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =(1)Duke-6, @(8)Mississippi-15, (2)Kentucky-2, @(5)Mississippi St.-8, @(3)LSU-5, (8)Mississippi-5, @(2)Kentucky-27
• Other losses (2): @North Carolina St.-7, @South Carolina-3

Overview: Auburn ended an up and down year with an 8-game winning streak punctuated by an emphatic 20-point win over Tennessee, the 2nd time in March that they beat the Volunteers. Those were the clear highlights of their 7 wins over tourney teams; they lost games vs. other highly seeded teams Duke, Kentucky (x2) and LSU; all of those teams reached the Sweet Sixteen.

Auburn's defense isn't on the level of its offense but they do a few things very well: block shots (#5) and get turnovers (#1 in nation, due to #1 ranking in steals). On offense Auburn shoots a lot of threes, and they're good enough at it to compensate for getting their shots blocked a lot and not getting to the line all that often. They also rebound pretty well. Three Tigers average in double figures led by Bryce Brown's 15.8. While last year's team had a very short roster, especially come tournament time, this year ten players average over 10 minutes per game. Jared Harper scored 17 and Auburn needed every one of them in their 79-78 win over New Mexico State; they needed some help from the Aggies, too, missing free throws at the end that could have won or tied the game. Brown had 25 as they cruised to beat Kansas 89-75.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: These teams actually have quite a number of common opponents despite being in different conferences. The most recent is Washington; the Tar Heels just beat the Huskies by 22, while Auburn won by 22 (at home) back in early November. Both teams played Kentucky, with UNC on the losing on on the road 80-72 and Auburn losing twice, 82-80 at home and 80-53 on the road. Auburn lost an early game to Duke 78-72, while North Carolina beat the Blue Devils twice before losing a nail-biter a few weeks ago. And finally Auburn lost to NC State in December; the Tar Heels beat the Wolfpack twice this season.

North Carolina will have the advantage when on offense, unless their super-fast tempo can be disrupted by Auburn's molasses-slow defensive tempo—meaning, they'll have to get in the half court. Auburn specializes in steals and blocks, and UNC is vulnerable to both, especially getting shots blocked. The Tigers force opponents to shoot 3's after a long possession, while North Carolina like to take 2's early on the shot clock; something's gotta give. Not that UNC is averse to shooting the 3, of course; it's an important part of their half-court set. They just would rather not even play half court ball. The Tar Heels should have a lot of 2nd chances as their offensive rebounding is great while Auburn's defensive rebounding is in the 300's.

Auburn's offense is pretty well-matched with UNC's defense efficiency-wise. They shoot a lot of 3's and make a lot of 3's, while North Carolina's defense is mainly based on defending the 2-point shot. This should create some opportunity for the Tigers, but they better make their shots because North Carolina is an excellent rebounding team. Like the Tar Heels they get shots blocked a lot but UNC isn't especially active there.

Auburn's chances seem dependent on making their 3-pointers. They score on 2-pointers less than almost anyone, so the Tar Heels defense is built to stop something Auburn doesn't do much. If the Tigers make their 3's, and get back on defense before North Carolina can run, they can win the game. With both teams very high in inconsistency, it doesn't take a stretch of the imagination to say the range of possibilities is pretty wide.

Vegas Line:

North Carolina by   5

Power rating: spread

North Carolina by   5.4

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

N. Carolina:    64.5% 
Auburn:         35.5% 

Good agreement between Vegas and Strength, while UNC's chance to win via the game-comparison system (64.5%) is far lower than the historical odds for a 1-seed to beat a 5-seed (83%). In this case it's warranted because Auburn is a historically strong 5-seed.

Bottom line: There will be upsets on Friday and Saturday. High-chalk 2nd-round weekends point to low-chalk days ahead. I am picking four lower-seeds to beat the higher-seeds in round 3, including losses by two top seeds, Gonzaga and North Carolina. How it happens is just detail; I'm assuming Auburn would have to hit their 3-pointers at a crazy rate, which will win most games against most anyone.

Final prediction: Auburn 83, North Carolina 78

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Michigan State vs. (3) LSU

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 2
Record: 30-6
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

LSU Tigers
Seed: 3
Record: 28-6
Conference: SEC

Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 7:09 pm Eastern
Location: Washington, DC
Region: East
Channel: CBS

 

Michigan State's Tom Izzo is one of the all-time great NCAA tournament coaches. LSU's Will Wade, on the other hand, is suspended and the team is led by an interim coach during March Madness. Who do you suppose is going to be favored to win this one?

     Michigan State                     LSU

Power Ratings

Strength:          #4              Strength:          #21
Pomeroy:           #3              Pomeroy:           #18
   Offense:  #4                       Offense:  #13
   Defense:  #8                       Defense:  #48
BPI:               #4              BPI:               #20
LRMC:              #3*             LRMC:              #22*
    *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #179            Tempo:             #58
Consistency:       #50             Consistency:       #1
2nd half season:   #6              2nd half season:   #18
Last 2 games:      #15             Last 2 games:      #37

Michigan State is a strong 2-seed, ranking in the top 4 of all the power ratings. LSU is a weak 3-seed; the Tigers look more like a 5- or 6-seed. The Spartans rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency; the Tigers are nearly top ten in offense but barely top 50 on D. On paper, this 2 vs. 3-seed matchup is a mismatch.

But LSU has been counted out the whole tournament, probably being the highest seed that has been picked to exit early—in both their games—by a variety of pundits. And to be fair, they didn't have much breathing room, especially against Maryland. But so far the Tigers have prevailed, probably because of their very consistent gameplay; they don't have many bad games. Michigan State is fairly consistent, too, but not quite like the Tigers. The problem for the Tigers is that they'll need some upside inconsistency in this game, otherwise they're depending on a rare bad game from the Spartans.

Season overview: Michigan State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (16): (11)Iowa+22, @(10)Florida+4, @(11)Ohio St.+9, (3)Purdue+18, (6)Maryland+14, @(10)Iowa+15, (10)Minnesota+24, @(5)Wisconsin+8, (11)Ohio St.+18, @(2)Michigan+7, (2)Michigan+12, =(11)Ohio St.+7, =(5)Wisconsin+12, =(2)Michigan+5, =(15)Bradley+11, =(10)Minnesota+20
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (3)Purdue+18, @(2)Michigan+7, (2)Michigan+12, =(2)Michigan+5
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =(4)Kansas-5, @(7)Louisville-OT, @(3)Purdue-10
• Other losses (3): Indiana-OT, @Illinois-5, @Indiana-1

Overview: Michigan State has more wins over the tournament field than any other team, another reason it's odd they didn't get a 1-seed. Perhaps they lack big wins over 1-seeds, but they beat fellow 2-seed Michigan three times, does that not create some separation? They also swept 10-seed Iowa, 5-seed Wisconsin, and 11-seed Ohio State. They were 1-1 vs. 3-seed Purdue and strangely got swept by Indiana, once during a bad 3-game swoon that was their only real time of weakness this season. They were pretty consistent, with their 101-33 win over Tennessee Tech (game 4) the only outrageous blowout win.

Not surprisingly, MSU does almost everything well: shooting 2s, 3s, free throws, assists, rebounding; and on defense defending the shot and blocking shots. Their one poor area is forcing turnovers, something they don't need to do when everything else is running smoothly. The Spartans lost key guard Joshua Langford midway through the season and reserve forward Kyle Ahrens is out too, leaving them with a 6-man rotation, but behind Cassius Winston (18.9 ppg) and Nick Ward (14.0), who returned for the Big Ten tournament, MSU is playing their best basketball at the right time. That didn't hold true for their first game, a 76-65 win over stubborn 15-seed Bradley where being shorthanded hurt them due to foul trouble; Winston led with 26 points. Xavier Tillman had 14 in the 70-50 Minnesota win.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: LSU

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): =(11)Saint Mary's+4, @(8)Mississippi+14, @(5)Mississippi St.+OT, (5)Auburn+5, @(2)Kentucky+2, (2)Tennessee+OT, @(10)Florida+OT, =(14)Yale+5, =(6)Maryland+2
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (3): (5)Auburn+5, @(2)Kentucky+2, (2)Tennessee+OT
• osses to tournament teams (4): =(4)Florida St.-OT, @(3)Houston-6, (10)Florida-OT, =(10)Florida-3
• Other losses (2): =Oklahoma St.-13, Arkansas-1

Overview: LSU's consistency is clear from their chart; they win but don't dominate, and they still play well in losing (notwithstanding the 90-77 loss to 12-20 Oklahoma State in game 7 above). What's remarkable though is that the Tigers were involved in seven overtime games this year and won 5 of them. That includes beating 2-seed Tennessee, as well as 5-seed Mississippi State and 10-seed Florida. They also lost to Florida and Florida State in extra innings. The Tigers beat 2-seed Kentucky on the road, narrowly but in regulation.

The Tigers are 5th in the nation in steals on defense, and LSU's very efficient offense is further jazzed by great offensive rebounding, also #5 in the nation. Four Tigers score in double digits led by Tremont Waters' 15.1. The Tigers also shoot well from the free throw line.

The last four games are worth a look as they are the games the team has played under interim coach Tony Benford. The first, against Vanderbilt, was an 80-59 rout at home. The second was a hard-fought 76-73 loss where a late technical foul called on Benford led to a 6-point play by Florida. So even if the team stayed cool about the coaching challenge, it ended up affecting them. Overall, the team played well however. Their narrow 79-74 win over Yale was good and bad; they built a huge lead, then saw Yale chip it down to 3 points, but then held on to win. Skylar Mays scored 19 points including 4-of-4 in free throws in the final 12 seconds. The Tigers then edged Maryland 69-67 on Tremont Waters' last second layup.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: First and foremost, the coaching. Tom Izzo is an all-time great, but that's not the focus here. He's known for taking teams farther into the tournament than their seed would indicate, so his presence here—as the favored seed—isn't so significant. What people are talking about is Will Wade's absence. So far Tony Benford has done a decent job, if you excuse the SEC tournament loss to Florida. Not many thought LSU would still be alive despite being a 3-seed and therefore 'favored' to be in the Sweet Sixteen. They're playing about as well as they normally do, but since that means playing like a very weak 3-seed, then the Spartans should be the favorite regardless of coaching issues.

Michigan State's main "minus" is their short rotation; only 8 players average more than 8 minutes per game, and two of them are out. That leaves a concentrated 6-man lineup which was responsible for 63 of their 70 points against Minnesota, and 71 of 76 against Bradley. When it works, it's fine, but they're one more injury or foul trouble away from game trouble.

The Tigers rarely have a bad game, and they tend to win their close games. Hence their 5-2 overtime record. The problem is they rarely have an amazing game either. They're at the point in the tournament where they are going to have to pull out some amazing games, and they've done that exactly zero times this year. They still managed to beat 2-seeds Kentucky and Tennessee, by 2 points and in overtime, respectively. If they beat the Spartans it will probably look like that.

LSU should be relatively competitive when they're on offense, so let's look at LSU's defense when Michigan State has the ball. Michigan State leads the nation in assists, but LSU's defense is fairly good at preventing them. So far, not bad. MSU is vulnerable to steals, and LSU is #6 in steals. Even better! Maybe there's hope. The Tiger D is decent at getting blocked shots; the Spartans aren't blocked a lot, but they are sometimes, so let's say that's another vector for disruption. After that it's pretty bad news. Michigan State is an excellent shooting team and LSU's defense doesn't prevent that very well. And when they do miss, the Spartans are excellent rebounders while LSU's defensive rebounding is rather poor. So the idea is: don't let Michigan State get to the point where they shoot the ball. Though LSU's offense should hold its own, I don't see them getting much excess traction against Michigan State's defense, so to close the gap they'll probably need a great defensive effort.

Vegas Line:

Michigan St. by   6

Power rating: spread

Michigan St. by   8.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Michigan St.:     79.2% 
LSU:              20.8% 

It's a bit surprising, but not too much, that MSU is only favored by 6 points given the coaching situation. Our Strength power rating calls for a nearly 9 point average win, and about 80% success rate for the Spartans; 2-seeds normally win just 63% of the time. This reflects LSU's status as a poor 3-seed, as well as MSU's high rating.

Bottom line: Everyone's been underestimating LSU so far and that won't stop here. Michigan State could even be looking ahead to playing Duke, but LSU will be pretty focused on the Spartans. I think it's time for an upset pick. The 2nd round had much chalk in it—14 of 16 expected teams are here, with zero upsets in the Round of 32—and that's bound to change. We will take LSU to win another close one. Since they never really elevate their game, that means Michigan State will have to play sub-par, probably due to foul trouble. If the Tigers can manage to ride that into overtime their odds are pretty good.

Final prediction: LSU 83, Michigan State 81 OT

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Virginia vs. (12) Oregon

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Virginia Cavaliers
Seed: 1
Record: 31-3
Conference: ACC

vs.

Oregon Ducks
Seed: 12
Record: 25-12
Conference: Pac-12

Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 9:59 pm Eastern
Location: Louisville, KY
Region: South
Channel: TBS

 

It's not quite the same as a 16-seed beating a 1-seed, but it's still true that a 12-seed has never defeated a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament. Oregon is playing out of their heads; can the Ducks make history?

     Virginia                           Oregon

Power Ratings

Strength:          #3              Strength:          #37
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #29
   Offense:  #2                       Offense:  #74
   Defense:  #3                       Defense:  #15
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #31
LRMC:              #4*             LRMC:              #31*
   *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #353            Tempo:             #328
Consistency:       #89             Consistency:       #344
2nd half season:   #2              2nd half season:   #26
Last 2 games:      #20             Last 2 games:      #2

Looking at the stats for the full season and there's no comparison: Virginia is the superior team. #1 in Pomeroy and BPI, we have them at #3. The Cavs are in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is pretty amazing. Oregon's full-season figures are not all that impressive, and while their defense looks good, the offensive rating is pretty mundane.

But those are full-season stats. Looking at more recent play, Oregon makes a big leap since January. But it's their very recent play—since the very end of February—that is revelatory. In that span they rank in the top 5 in the nation, and that level of play has continued in the tournament where they rank #2 in performance in their first 2 NCAA tournament games.

Virginia only ranks #20; this is due to their poor outing vs. 16-seed Gardner Webb, an understandable mental glitch that seems to have corrected itself; they were up to their usual par against Oklahoma. Over each teams' last 10 games they are essentially equal, meaning that this 1 vs. 12 matchup is a close call. All we can really say about it is that the tempo will be slow!

Season overview: Virginia

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =(5)Wisconsin+7, @(6)Maryland+5, (8)VCU+8, (4)Florida St.+13, (4)Virginia Tech+22, @(1)North Carolina+8, @(4)Virginia Tech+6, @(7)Louisville+12, @(8)Syracuse+26, (7)Louisville+5, =Gardner Webb+15, =(9)Oklahoma+12
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): (4)Florida St.+13, (4)Virginia Tech+22, @(1)North Carolina+8, @(4)Virginia Tech+6
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @(1)Duke-2, (1)Duke-10, =(4)Florida St.-10
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: Virginia's 2019 season was pretty much like their 2018 season—lots of wins, and very few losses. They lost only 3 times. The first loss to Duke was a "good" loss, by 2 points on Duke's home court. The next time they lost at home by 10—which again wasn't bad considering Duke inexplicably shot the lights out from behind the arc. The third loss was the troubling one, loing to Florida State by 10 on a neutral court. It was their worst performance of the year. Afterwards there were some concerning locker room quotes about how they felt they got "punked." Hopefully that game allowed them to relive, and reject, the bad feelings from the UMBC loss. But even if it renews them in the short term, the fact that they faltered in the ACC tournament doesn't seem to bode well for their chances of winning the Big Dance. Has reaching the Sweet Sixteen exorcised their demons?

On the upside, the season included wins over 10 tournament teams, including 1-seed North Carolina. They didn't really play a lot of top seeds outside of Duke. Sure, they can beat 4-seeds, but that only gets you to the Elite Eight. Does having a slightly weak SOS harm them? People ask the question about Gonzaga all the time, but Virginia's SOS is just borderline top 25.

Virginia's offense is actually better than it's defense, believe it or not. That's one thing that should propel the team through the brackets. They're shooting the ball extremely well, especially three-pointers, and limiting turnovers. On defense they're basically the same as last year, making teams shoot poor percentage shots. Kyle Guy leads the team at 15.6 ppg, while De'Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome add 15.1 and 13.0 respectively. Hunter missed last year's game, and after watching from the bench I can only imagine he's ready to go.

Hunter certainly was ready to go, leading the team with 23 points against Gardner Webb. The game looked like deja vu until the 2nd half started and Virginia righted the ship, winning 71-56. Against Oklahoma the Cavaliers looked like their old selves, winning methodically 63-51 behind Mamadi Diakite's 14 points.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Oregon

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(8)Syracuse+15, (11)Arizona St.+28, @(9)Washington+8, =(11)Arizona St.+OT, =(9)Washington+20, =(5)Wisconsin+18
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(10)Iowa-8, @(3)Houston-4, @(9)Baylor-10, @(11)Arizona St.-14, (9)Washington-5
• Other losses (7): Texas Southern-5, Oregon St.-5, UCLA-OT, @Colorado-22, @Oregon St.-15, @USC-17, @UCLA-7

Overview: It's easy to see how Oregon flew under the radar: they sucked for most of the season. They were supposed to be great with Bol Bol, and they beat 8-seed Syracuse but lost to 10-seed Iowa, Texas Southern, and 3-seed Houston, then Bol was lost for the year after game 9. Well into the Pac-12 season they were 15-12 overall with no hope of an at-large bid. So they suddenly became a great team, blowing out 11-seed ASU, beating 9-seed Washington on the road, then sweeping through the Pac-12 tournament beating ASU and Washington again.

Where did this sudden greatness come from? It followed their only 3-loss slump of the season, where they got beat by 15, 17, and 7 points by three teams that didn't make the tournament. More importantly, will it continue? Or, having made a big push to salvage their season, does it end here? Louis King, the Ducks' leading scorer, is having ankle issues but should play. He missed the early part of the season but came in just before Bol got hurt. Payton Pritchard had 19 points in Oregon's 72-54 win over Wisconsin. They beat UC Irvine by almost the exact same score; it was 73-54 this time, and Pritchard had 18.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Normally a 1-seed vs. a 12-seed game is an afterthought, an example of a 12-seed that hit on a bit of luck to win a couple of games, nothing more. But in this case Oregon has a very good chance of winning, and not because of any weakness on Virginia's part, but rather the fact that Oregon is playing like a totally different team. A normal 12-seed just barely made the tournament; that's true of Oregon but they're playing right now like a 1- or 2-seed.

Another reason Oregon could pull off the upset? The recent Florida State win over Virginia, which showed how a "long" (i.e. tall) team can fluster and out-hustle the Cavaliers. FSU beat Virginia 69-59, and it was the Cavs' worst performance of the year. FSU is #10 in average height per Pomeroy, while Oregon is #15. Oregon has three starters at 6'9" and another at 6'5". Virginia ranks #105 in height, with their tallest starter at 6'9" and shortest at 5'9". But remember that Virgina beat FSU handily earlier in the year, 65-52; the rematch was held on the same court where UMBC upset the Cavs. That may seem inconsequential, but given what happened in the first half vs. Gardner Webb it's not in the realm of science fiction to believe it had an effect.

As expected given their height, Oregon's defense is good at steals and blocks, and these are areas where Virginia's offense is vulnerable. But the Ducks are surprisingly not a great rebounding team, and their shooting is suspect against Virginia's great shooting defense. We've focused on Oregon's height, but smallest starter Payton Pritchard is the kind of elusive, disrupting player that can confound a defense like Virginia's by being unpredictable. Either that, or their pack-line defense limits his movement and renders him less effective; It's hard to tell. FSU had success on offense by targetting 5'9" Kehei Clark, so Virginia had better prepare for the same from the Ducks.

Vegas Line:

Virginia by   8 1/2

Power rating: spread

Virginia by   11.8

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Virginia:        76.0% 
Oregon:          24.0% 

The Vegas line is several points below our Strength power rating's estimate, which is not unusual, especially when the underdog is playing so much better recently. The game-comparison system shows what one would expect if Oregon had played consistently at their full-season average; for more recent play Oregon's chances would be much higher. In tournament history, 1-seeds have played 12-seeds 19 times and won all 19 games. Of course, when Virginia met UMBC, 1-seeds had defeated 16-seeds 132 out of 132 times...

Bottom line: If we go back 10 games for each team, Virginia is still ahead by a point, despite all of Oregon's recent greatness. That gives us confidence to stick with our initial pick, from before the tournament started, when we had these teams meeting in the Sweet Sixteen and Virginia advancing. At the time I thought about picking Oregon to win this game because of their height, but I wasn't terribly confident that the Ducks would keep playing the way they'd been playing, or even make it to this juncture. Now that they're here and have been playing well, I consider this game a 50-50 proposition but will stick with my original choice.

Final prediction: Virginia 62, Oregon 61

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Michigan vs. (3) Texas Tech

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Michigan Wolverines
Seed: 2
Record: 30-6
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Texas Tech Red Raiders
Seed: 3
Record: 28-6
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 9:39 pm Eastern
Location: Anaheim, CA 
Region: West
Channel: CBS

 

The two best defenses in college basketball face off against each other.

     Michigan                           Texas Tech

Power Ratings

Strength:          #6              Strength:          #7
Pomeroy:           #5              Pomeroy:           #7
   Offense:  #19                      Offense:  #33
   Defense:  #2                       Defense:  #1
BPI:               #6              BPI:               #8
LRMC:              #6*             LRMC:              #8*
    *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #317            Tempo:             #231
Consistency:       #256            Consistency:       #293
2nd half season:   #7              2nd half season:   #9
Last 2 games:      #9              Last 2 games:      #5

 

Both solidly top ten teams, Michigan and Texas Tech have the #2 and #1 most efficient (i.e. best) defenses in the nation. Their offenses aren't bad either, and they may need their best offensive performance of the year to win. We'll compare the teams offense vs. defense further in the Game Analysis section below.

Michigan's slower tempo is mostly due to their defensive prowess; on offense they play at average pace, so more game time might be played with the Wolverines on defense. Both teams have played very well January thru March, and in the tournament as well.

Season overview: Michigan

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): @(6)Villanova+27, (1)North Carolina+17, (3)Purdue+19, (10)Minnesota+2, (11)Ohio St.+16, (5)Wisconsin+9, (6)Maryland+13, @(10)Minnesota+9, @(6)Maryland+7, =(10)Iowa+21, =(10)Minnesota+27, =(15)Montana+19, =(10)Florida+15
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (1)North Carolina+17, (3)Purdue+19
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @(5)Wisconsin-10, @(10)Iowa-15, (2)Michigan St.-7, @(2)Michigan St.-12, =(2)Michigan St.-5
• Other losses (1): @Penn St.-6

Overview: Michigan placed 2nd to Villanova in last year's tournament, and in game three they let it be known that they were going to be a team to be reckoned with as they destroyed the defending champs, 73-46 on Villanova's home court. They beat 1-seed North Carolina and 3-seed Purdue back-to-back en route to a 17-0 start. They slipped up a bit after that, falling to Wisconsin and Iowa, and then Penn State, but they garnered a slew of tourney-team wins in the 8-bid Big Ten. The one they couldn't beat was rival Michigan State, who beat them in Ann Arbor (77-70), East Lansing (75-63), and in Chicago (65-60). Despite the losses to MSU, the flow of Michigan's season looks a lot like the 2013 national runner-up team that lost to Louisville in the finals: a long win streak covering half the season, then 6 losses the rest of the way.

On defense, the Wolverines lock down every shot; they are good against threes, twos, and foes don't get to the line very often. Mostly teams try to move the ball around before throwing up a desperation three. On offense the Wolverines shoot reasonbly well, but don't rebound or get to the line often; their success comes from their extremely low turnover rate. Ignas Brazdeikis (15.1 ppg) leads three double digit scorers. One concern for Michigan's goal of a deep tourney run is that they are 4th from last in bench minutes; it helps to have a deeper team come tournament time, and that could catch up to them sooner or later. The bench scored 13 in Michigan's 74-55 win over Montana, while Charles Matthews led with 22. Jordan Poole's 19 led Michigan over Florida, 64-49, to reach the Sweet Sixteen.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Texas Tech

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (15)Abilene Christian+34, (4)Kansas St.+6, (9)Oklahoma+7, @(9)Oklahoma+12, (9)Baylor+25, (4)Kansas+29, @(6)Iowa St.+7, =(14)Northern Kentucky+15, =(6)Buffalo+17
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (0): None
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Duke-11, (6)Iowa St.-4, @(9)Baylor-11, @(4)Kansas St.-13, @(4)Kansas-16
• Other losses (1): =West Virginia-5

Overview: Texas Tech raced to a 10-0 start against a mostly easy field before losing to 1-seed Duke in New York. They won 5 more and were 15-1 when they hit a 3-game skid courtesy of tourney teams Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. Kansas added to the pile-on, but then the Raiders went on an even more incredible recovery, winning 9 straight including wins over Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas, and Iowa State. They shockingly lost to West Virginia, though, a team they beat by 31 at the start of the last streak.

On defense, Texas Tech holds teams to the 2nd lowest combined shooting average in the nation, and they are #7 in blocked shots per opportunity. They get a lot of turnovers, too. It all adds up to perhaps the nation's best defensive play. On offense, Jarrett Culver leads the team with an 18.5 ppg average. The Red Raiders took care of business against Northern Kentucky, 72-57, with Culver's 29 leading the way. All five starters were in double figures for the 91-74 win over Buffalo.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: When you have the teams with the top two defenses in the nation, you usually ask the obvious: which team has the better offense? Because it's hard to imagine one defense greatly outplaying the other, but on offense there is a pretty clear (though not huge) difference, and the Wolverines have the advantage there. The important thing is to compare offenses vs. defenses:

When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines are already a mediocre shooting team, so against Texas Tech's #2 shooting defense they'll have a hard time. They aren't vulnerable to steals (#2 in nation), one of Texas Tech's strong suits on D, but they do get shots blocked and that's another Red Raider specialty.

When Texas Tech has the ball: The Raiders shoot the ball pretty well, while Michigan is #6 in shooting defense. Breaking it down, there's not much difference in their effective 2-point and 3-point shooting, and Michigan is good against both; Texas Tech is likely to take shots in 2-point range, since they don't take that many 3's and Michigan is great at denying open 3's. Tech doesn't get blocked much, but they are vulnerable to steals; Michigan's D is barely above average at both.

Conclusions: Both offenses will have difficulties to overcome. Texas Tech should have better luck shooting the ball, mostly in 2-point range; and Michigan's offense will negate Texas Tech's ability to get steals, but they'll have a lot of trouble making shots, and probably get blocked quite a bit. Neither offense will get many 2nd chances, due to the Wolverines: Michigan is a bad offensive rebounding team, and a great defensive rebounding team. Free throws could come into play, obviously: Michigan rarely fouls, and Texas Tech does—but Michigan doesn't get to the line very often on offense, and has a worse percentage then the Red Raiders.

Correlary: This means the game will be very low scoring.

Question: When does Michigan's lack of bench minutes cause problems? Maybe when the starters, in addition to playing all-out defense for 30+ minutes, have to play offense against a defense just as good as theirs? The Wolverines basically use a 6th man to spell most of their starters, but any injury will hit them hard, as would foul trouble.

Vegas Line:

Michigan by   2

Power rating: spread

Michigan by   0.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Michigan:       51.3% 
Texas Tech:     48.7% 

Historically a 2-seed has a 63% chance to win these matchups, but that's clearly not the case here. At least the Strength power rating and Vegas line agree that Michigan is favored, even if our game-comparison system says they win only 51% of the time.

Bottom line: Another super-close 2 vs. 3 game. We're sticking with Michigan, though Tech has a very real chance to score the upset in what should be a low low scoring game.

Final prediction: Michigan 52, Texas Tech 51

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (2) Tennessee vs. (3) Purdue

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 2
Record: 31-5
Conference: SEC

vs.

Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 3
Record: 25-9
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 7:29 pm Eastern
Location: Louisville, KY
Region: South
Channel: TBS

 

A great 2 vs. 3 game that is very evenly matched; both teams have offenses in the top 5, defenses in the 25-35 range, and are meeting in the middle in Louisville.

     Tennessee                          Purdue

Power Ratings

Strength:          #9              Strength:          #10
Pomeroy:           #10             Pomeroy:           #9
   Offense:  #3                       Offense:  #5
   Defense:  #33                      Defense:  #26
BPI:               #10             BPI:               #9
LRMC:              #7*             LRMC:              #10*
 *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #170            Tempo:             #268
Consistency:       #110            Consistency:       #185
2nd half season:   #12             2nd half season:   #5
Last 2 games:      #47             Last 2 games:      #4

2-seed Tennessee ranks #9 in Strength, #10 in Pomeroy, and #10 in BPI.  3-seed Purdue is #10, #9, and #9. That's about as close as you can get, and the efficiency numbers show what a tossup it is: Tennessee is #3 on offense, Purdue #5; the Vols are #33 on defense, while Purdue is #26. Will Purdue's slightly better defense offset Tennessee's slightly better offense?

With both offenses in the top 5, this should be a fun game to watch. Where Purdue looks clearly better than Tennessee is recent play; they're much better in the 2nd half of the season, and in the tournament so far the Vols have struggled while Purdue has shined. It's the reason why, after Tennessee was ranked ahead in both Pomeroy and BPI, they are now 1 spot behind the Boilermakers.

Season overview: Tennessee

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(7)Louisville+11, =(1)Gonzaga+3, @(10)Florida+11, (10)Florida+12, @(8)Mississippi+2, (2)Kentucky+19, (5)Mississippi St.+17, =(5)Mississippi St.+7, =(2)Kentucky+4, =(15)Colgate+7, =(10)Iowa+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen(3): =(1)Gonzaga+3, (2)Kentucky+19, =(2)Kentucky+4
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(4)Kansas-OT, @(2)Kentucky-17, @(3)LSU-OT, @(5)Auburn-4, =(5)Auburn-20
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: Tennessee was on fire for the first half of the season; they lost only to Kansas in overtime, they beat 1-seed Gonzaga on a neutral court, and zipped to a 23-1 start. But other than Louisville and the 'Zags, the only tourney team they beat was 10-seed Florida (x2). The first meeting with fellow 2-seed Kentucky didn't go well and they lost by 17. They won the rematch at home by 19, and grinded out a win in the rubber match, but that win left them spent and vulnerable to a 20-point beatdown by 5-seed Auburn in the SEC tournament final. Maybe the Tigers have their number, as they lost to Auburn just before the tournament, too. All told, the Vols were 6-4 when the schedule got harder, and they're 5-5 vs. 5-seeds or better.

Five Vols average in double figures, led by Grant Williams' 19.0. Tennessee rarely shoots the 3 but they are great inside the arc and from the free throw line. Against Colgate, Admiral Schofield's 19 points sealed the deal in a tighter-than-expected 77-70 win. The Vols ran to a 25 point lead against Iowa, then lost ALL of it before winning in overtime, 83-77; Schofield and Williams both had 19.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Purdue

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): (6)Maryland+2, (11)Belmont+11, (10)Iowa+16, @(5)Wisconsin+OT, @(11)Ohio St.+12, (2)Michigan St.+10, (10)Minnesota+10, (11)Ohio St.+35, =(14)Old Dominion+13, =(6)Villanova+26
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): (2)Michigan St.+10
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =(4)Virginia Tech-6, @(4)Florida St.-1, @(2)Michigan-19, @(2)Michigan St.-18, @(6)Maryland-14, @(10)Minnesota-4, =(10)Minnesota-2
• Other losses (2): @Texas-4, =Notre Dame-8

Overview: Purdue got off to a rocky start this season. From nearly the beginning they ranked high in the Strength power rating, which does not carry forward any bias from the previous season to smooth things out. Despite their 6-5 start, they ranked among the very top teams, which was probably of no consolation to their disappointed fans. They lost to 4-seeds Virginia Tech and Florida State in close games and were beaten handily by 2-seed Michigan, and suffered losses to Texas and Notre Dame to boot. But the power ratings were right; Purdue's luck changed and from there the Boilermakers went on a 16-2 tear including a signature win over 2-seed Michigan State. They lost 2 of their last 3—strangely, both narrow losses to 10-seed Minnesota; is this a return to their bad luck days, or a brief aberration? Purdue's tournament hopes lie in the balance. By reaching the Sweet Sixteen, it looks like they've pulled out of their mini-slump.

Both on offense and defense Purdue does almost everything well but nothing spectacular. Rebounding is probably their strong suit, as well as avoiding turnovers. They depend a lot on Big Ten leader Carsen Edwards' 23.0 points per game to keep their offense running smoothly; only one other player is in low double digits. Purdue beat St. Mary's 61-48 in the first round on Edwards' 26 points. He was even more amazing in the 87-61 blowout of defending champ Villanova, scoring 42 points and making 9 of 16 3's.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: This game is all about who's hot and who's not. Who is? Purdue, and specifically Carson Edwards. Tennessee hasn't played a really good game since the loss to Auburn where they were clearly fatigued. A week later they blew a 25 point lead in the 2nd half...are they still fatigued? Or decided they could rest in the 2nd half? Tennessee's 2nd half problem in that game are a microcosm of their problems in the 2nd half of the season. They started 23-1 but since mid-February they are 8-4.

The teams have basically equal offenses and defenses, but on both sides of the court there will be a mismatch in favor of the team that has the ball. Whichever squad manages to slow down the other team's offense will have the advantage. Every stop will be a small but important victory over the other team's top 5-rated offense.

Carson Edwards has been amazing in the tournament so far, but Purdue's reliance on one player might become an issue; stop him and you stop Purdue. Tennessee meanwhile has had four players in double figures both games in the tournament. To be fair to Purdue, even if Edwards had just managed his 23-point average, the Boilermakers would still have won both games. His outsized scoring totals have given Purdue a safety margin more than anything else.

Vegas Line:

Tennessee by   1

Power rating: spread

Tennessee by   0.1

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Tennessee:        49.8% 
Purdue:           50.2% 

I'm somewhat surprised Tennessee is favored by Vegas, considering how Pomeroy and BPI have turned to favoring Purdue (and also Tennessee's collapse vs. Iowa). But that agrees—barely—with our Strength power rating, which also takes the Vols but by just 1/10 of a point. That sliver margin is how Purdue wins the game-comparisons system at 50.2%. Tennessee's wins carry a slightly bigger margin of victory, but they have the slight minority of wins.

Bottom line: Seeing Purdue beat Villanova handily in both halves was a contrast to watching Tennessee beat Iowa badly in one half and lose badly in the 2nd half. Purdue's playing better basketball during the tournament and in the 2019 calendar year. It's a tossup for who is better for the full season. Unless Tennessee wakes up feeling very rejuvenated next Thursday, ready to play the full 40 minutes, they'll lose to Carson Edwards and the Boilermakers.

Final prediction: Purdue 81, Tennessee 71

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Gonzaga vs. (4) Florida State

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 1
Record: 32-3
Conference: West Coast

vs.

Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 4
Record: 29-7
Conference: ACC

Date: Thursday, March 28
Time: 7:09 pm Eastern
Location: Anaheim, CA
Region: West
Channel: CBS

 

Gonzaga and Florida State met last year in the Sweet Sixteen with FSU winning 75-60. Will the Zags get their revenge?

     Gonzaga                            Florida St.

Power Ratings

Strength:          #1              Strength:          #16
Pomeroy:           #2              Pomeroy:           #14
   Offense:  #1                       Offense:  #28
   Defense:  #17                      Defense:  #10
BPI:               #2              BPI:               #14
LRMC:              #1*             LRMC:              #17*
 *from Selection Sunday

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #70             Tempo:             #128
Consistency:       #315            Consistency:       #115
2nd half season:   #1              2nd half season:   #14
Last 2 games:      #3              Last 2 games:      #10

 

1-seed Gonzaga remains in the top 2 in all the power ratings, their offense is still #1, and their defense still top 20. Florida State still ranks like a 4-seed overall, with a top ten defense and nearly top 25 offense. Matching the offenses and defenses, Gonzaga has about a 10-rung advantage on both sides of the court.

Both teams are relatively uptempo overall, but there's a difference: Gonzaga is super-fast on offense but lockdown on defense, forcing their opponents to take a long time on each possession. Florida State is moderate on both ends. The Seminoles are a pretty consistent team compared to the Zags, who hit incredible highs but also play very average at times. FSU will hope to catch Gonzaga at one of the latter again. In tournament games so far both teams have played well with Florida State upping their game quite a bit in their last win.

Season overview: Gonzaga

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(1)Duke+2, (16)North Dakota St.+42, (9)Washington+2, (11)Saint Mary's+48, @(11)Saint Mary's+14, =(16)Fairleigh Dickinson+38, =(9)Baylor+12
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (1): =(1)Duke+2
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =(2)Tennessee-3, @(1)North Carolina-13, =(11)Saint Mary's-13
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: Gonzaga started the year with great expectations again and all systems were go when they beat Duke (game 6) in the final of the Maui Classic. They had two other big challenges left and they narrowly failed both, falling to 2-seed Tennessee and 1-seed North Carolina. They also beat a 16-seed and a 9-seed, but Duke is the win that counts, and the one that gave them a 1-seed. The Zags beat St. Mary's twice—once by 48 points—before losing to the Gaels in the finals of the West Coast Conference tournament. That loss doesn't knock Gonzaga out of Final Four consideration, as they had nothing to play for. But for us it probably knocks them out of national championship consideration; great teams don't collapse just because. We will soon find out how much heart this team has, or doesn't.

Gonzaga boasts the most efficient offense in the country (also known as, the best). They're great on defense too, and they place a schizophrenic tempo: extremely fast on offense (#6) and very slow on defense (#351 of 353) as they stifle their opponents' options. They're #1 in 2-point shooting, #1 in effective shooting percentage, and they suffer the fewest blocked shots of any team. They're similarly good on defense at making opponents miss. A lot of these stats aren't opponent-adjusted, so they inflate the Zags greatness a bit. But their power ratings and win results speak for themselves.

Rui Hachimura is the team leader in scoring at 20.1 ppg (6.6 boards); Brandon Clarke is #2 at 16.5 and leads with 8.4 rebounds. Zach Norvell Jr adds 15.3 points, while Josh Perkins (11.0) leads in assists with 6.5. Gonzaga beat Fairleigh Dicksinson 87-49 after leading 53-17 at the half; Hachimura led with 21. Then Clarke absolutely too over the Baylor game, hitting 15 of 18 shots for 36 points in the 83-71 win.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: Florida St.

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): (10)Florida+21, =(3)LSU+OT, (3)Purdue+1, =(13)Saint Louis+22, @(8)Syracuse+18, (7)Louisville+OT, (4)Virginia Tech+OT, =(4)Virginia Tech+OT, =(1)Virginia+10, =(13)Vermont+7, =(12)Murray St.+28
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (5): =(3)LSU+OT, (3)Purdue+1, (4)Virginia Tech+OT, =(4)Virginia Tech+OT, =(1)Virginia+10
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(6)Villanova-6, @(1)Virginia-13, (1)Duke-2, @(1)North Carolina-18, =(1)Duke-10
• Other losses (2): @Pittsburgh-13, @Boston College-5

Overview: Florida State started the year strong in a 12-1 stretch that included wins over 3-seeds LSU and Purdue but hit a bad patch in the middle, when they lost 4 of 5 in early January. It started with understandable losses to 1-seeds Duke and Virginia, but they let it escalate into losses to Pitt and BC, their worst games of the season. But they got that out of their system and went on a decent run, winning 14 of 15 (only loss to North Carolina). They became the only team other than Duke to beat Virginia before falling again to the Blue Devils in the ACC tourney final.

Defense is the team's forte, and they are especially good at limiting 2-point shots; all 3 of their their starting guards are over 6' 4" which Virginia players said created problems for them. Their offense is less heralded but they rebound well and protect the ball; they also shoot 74% from the line, which no doubt has been a factor in going 4-0 in overtime games. Mfiondu Kabengele and Terance Mann both score in double figures and average 5+ rebounds per game for the Seminoles. FSU beat Vermont 76-69 on Kabengele's 21 with Mann adding 19. Kabangale hit 10 of 12 shots for 22 points in FSU's 90-62 second round with over Murray State, which rates as the Seminoles' best effort to date.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Florida State has a very tough task ahead of it: they have to beat a team in the Sweet Sixteen for the 2nd year in a row, then (likely) upset the team that beat them last year in the Elite Eight. It's hard to do either, let alone both. The team that you beat last year is going to have extra motivation from the loss, and the team that beat you last year is probably still the better team. FSU might be better off with two new opponents. But strangely, the bracket was set up this way as a mirror of last year's.

Gonzaga should be quite motivated to beat the Seminoles. But as Mark Few pointed out, it's his team that has changed, not the Seminoles, who have most of the team back from last year. In some ways that mitigates the revenge factor; many key Gonzaga players didn't live through last year's defeat, and almost every FSU player remembers it—and thinks they can do it again.

As we stated before Gonzaga is super-fast on offense but lockdown on defense, forcing their opponents to take a long time on each possession. Florida State is moderate on both ends. Look for Gonzaga to set the pace on both sides of the court, more or less.

Florida State will be without starter Phil Cofer again; for the year they've been about 3 points worse when he's absent, but they've just played their best game of the year (comparable to the Virginia win) without him, and there may be a reason. Cofer's father died the same day as their win over Vermont, and according to reports it was very emotional for the entire team. When players have something more to play for they often reach new heights. It probably isn't a coincidence they played their best game two days later, and it may continue.

Vegas Line:

Gonzaga by   7

Power rating: spread

Gonzaga by   10.7

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Gonzaga:         76.7% 
Florida St.:     23.3% 

Since our Strength power rating has Gonzaga at #1, it's no surprise that they're a rather large favorite over FSU. Vegas is about 4 points less certain, and perhaps some of that is last year's result.

The % to win odds for 77% for Gonzaga are a bit higher than the historical average (71%) for 1-seeds facing 4-seeds.

Bottom line: Gongaza wants revenge, so they won't underestimate the Seminoles like they did last year. But FSU has to be confident they can beat the Bulldogs again. FSU beat 1-seed Virginia just 4 games ago, while Gonzaga hasn't played a team as good as FSU since North Carolina on December 15, and hasn't beaten a team as good as FSU since Duke on November 21. I don't underestimate the emotion with which the Seminoles are playing in honor of Phil Cofer's loss. We're taking FSU in another Sweet Sixteen upset.

Final prediction: Florida State 78, Gonzaga 75

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Second Round Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (12) Oregon vs. (13) UC Irvine

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Oregon Ducks
Seed: 12
Record: 24-12
Conference: Pac-12

vs.

UC Irvine Anteaters
Seed: 13
Record: 31-5
Conference: Big West

Date: Sunday, March 23
Time: 9:40 pm Eastern
Location: San Jose, CA 
Region: South
Channel: TBS

 

With all the 2nd round matchups we got wrong, this is one we somehow got right.

     Oregon                             UC Irvine

Power Ratings

Strength:          #38             Strength:          #84
Pomeroy:           #33             Pomeroy:           #66
   Offense:  #89                       Offense:  #118
   Defense:  #16                       Defense:  #56
BPI:               #33             BPI:               #79
LRMC:              #31             LRMC:              #65

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #328            Tempo:             #296
Schedule Strength: #69             Schedule Strength: #213  
Consistency:       #345            Consistency:       #149
Consist. Modifier: #56             Consist. Modifier: #85

2nd half season:   #30             2nd half season:   #63
Last 6 games:      #6              Last 6 games:      #32
Road Strength:     #51             Road Strength:     #71
Injury Modifier:   #45             Injury Modifier:   #87

 

Well, Oregon did it: proved that their sudden improvement was real. Will it last? And did UC Irvine just beat the odds, or are they going to be the tournament's Cinderella? The power ratings favor Oregon by far. There isn't just one seed difference between 12 and 13; it's usually the place where the difference in the actual quality of the team gets wider and wider. Hence Oregon's power ratings in the top 40 and UC Irvine's in the 60s, 70s, and 80s

Both teams have better defense than offense, and Oregon is better in each of those categories. It still means that Oregon's offense is going to have trouble. The Anteater offense, however, is going to have a lot more trouble. The pace should be quite deliberate. Looking at the recent play of each team, if Oregon continues to be "for real" then it won't be a contest. But Oregon is the king of inconsistency for the year. But recently all that inconsistency has been on the upside. The Ducks are perhaps the most interesting team in college basketball at the moment, and most people still don't realize it.

Season overview: Oregon

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(8)Syracuse+15, (11)Arizona St.+28, @(9)Washington+8, =(11)Arizona St.+OT, =(9)Washington+20, =(5)Wisconsin+18
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =(10)Iowa-8, @(3)Houston-4, @(9)Baylor-10, @(11)Arizona St.-14, (9)Washington-5
• Other losses (7): Texas Southern-5, Oregon St.-5, UCLA-OT, @Colorado-22, @Oregon St.-15, @USC-17, @UCLA-7

Overview: It's easy to see how Oregon flew under the radar: they sucked for most of the season. They were supposed to be great with Bol Bol, and they beat 8-seed Syracuse but lost to 10-seed Iowa, Texas Southern, and 3-seed Houston, then Bol was lost for the year after game 9. Well into the Pac-12 season they were 15-12 overall with no hope of an at-large bid. So they suddenly became a great team, blowing out 11-seed ASU, beating 9-seed Washington on the road, then sweeping through the Pac-12 tournament beating ASU and Washington again.

Where did this sudden greatness come from? It followed their only 3-loss slump of the season, where they got beat by 15, 17, and 7 points by three teams that didn't make the tournament. More importantly, will it continue? Or, having made a big push to salvage their season, does it end here? Louis King, the Ducks' leading scorer, is having ankle issues but should play. He missed the early part of the season but came in just before Bol got hurt. Payton Pritchard had 19 points in Oregon's 72-54 win over Wisconsin.

             **************************************************************

Season overview: UC Irvine

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): @(11)Saint Mary's+5, (15)Montana+9, =(4)Kansas St.+6
  
• Losses to tournament teams (1): (8)Utah St.-24
• Other losses (4): =Toledo-7, @Butler-17, @Pacific-OT, Long Beach St.-10

Overview: UC Irvine was 14-5 at mid-season but has been 16-0 since then, and very consistent. They played their two best games late in the season, including the 92-64 win over Fullerton State that gave them an NCAA berth. They also beat 11-seed St. Mary's in game 8.

On defense UC Irvine is #1 against 2-point shots and #5 overall in holding opponents to a low shooting percentage. On offense they're a decent rebounding team. Max Hazzard leads the team in scoring at a 12.5 clip; he and Evan Leonard both had 19 points in the 70-64 upset of Kansas State.

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Game Analysis: Oregon just beat a great Wisconsin team, and it wasn't even close at the end. Before making that upset pick, I wondered if Oregon's great run was going to last. It was critical because I considered Wisconsin a potential Final Four team. I thought it was at least be a nail-biter, but no, the Ducks are really that good now.

UC Irvine got a great win, their first in the NCAA tournament all-time. They've been steady, and quite good, for some time. But they aren't close to being as good as Oregon is now. A month ago? They would have won 4 out of 5 against the Ducks: one blowout loss vs. 4 narrow victories. But Oregon seemingly only plays out of their heads now.

Vegas Line:

Oregon by   4 1/2

Power rating: spread

Oregon by   5.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Oregon:      63.6% 
UC Irvine:   36.4% 

Vegas is less convinced of Oregon's greatness. Even Strength only ranks them #38 and has them a 6 point favorite. Vegas likes certainty, and Oregon's sudden revival is a bit too much to put faith in. And don't get me wrong: Irvine is playing its best basketball of the year, a 31-5 year. So if Oregon slips even a bit, or gets overconfident now that they're the higher seed, they'll lose. A 12-seed vs. 13-seed matchup has only happened 11 times, with 8 going to the 12-seed.

Bottom line: UC Irvine pulled off a great upset, but it was an upset. Oregon's upset wasn't really an upset—they are legitimately one of the best teams in the country right now.

Final prediction: Oregon 60, UC Irvine 51

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Second Round Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (3) Houston vs. (11) Ohio State

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Houston Cougars
Seed: 3
Record: 32-3
Conference: American

vs.

Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 11
Record: 19-14
Conference: Big Ten

Date: Sunday, March 24
Time: 8:40 pm Eastern
Location: Tulsa, OK 
Region: Midwest
Channel: TNT

 

One of a seemingly endless supply of double-digit seeds in the Round of 32, 11-seed Ohio State faces 3-seed Houston.

     Houston                            Ohio State

Power Ratings

Strength:          #13             Strength:          #33
Pomeroy:           #12             Pomeroy:           #41
   Offense:  #22                      Offense:  #76
   Defense:  #12                      Defense:  #22
BPI:               #13             BPI:               #41
LRMC:              #16             LRMC:              #45

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #245            Tempo:             #272
Schedule Strength: #86             Schedule Strength: #15   
Consistency:       #148            Consistency:       #267
Consist. Modifier: #15             Consist. Modifier: #39

2nd half season:   #10             2nd half season:   #47
Last 6 games:      #23             Last 6 games:      #116
Road Strength:     #7              Road Strength:     #39
Injury Modifier:   #13             Injury Modifier:   #23

 

The matchup here is a bit closer than a 3 vs. 11 would seem, probably because Ohio State ranks a bit higher (and they've moved up since their win over Iowa State). When Houston has the ball, according to Pomeroy it's a dead heat: the Cougar offense ranks equally with the Buckeyes on defense. When Ohio State has the ball it's a different story, and that's where the game should be won for Houston.

Season overview: Houston

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (12)Oregon+4, (3)LSU+6, (13)Saint Louis+4, (8)Utah St.+10, (11)Temple+7, @(9)UCF+9, (7)Cincinnati+7, @(7)Cincinnati+16, =(14)Georgia St.+29
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @(11)Temple-4, (9)UCF-5, =(7)Cincinnati-12
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: Losses for Houston were few and far between this season, and they only lost to tournament-bound teams. It took until game 16 for Houston to lose at Temple; by then they'd beaten four tournament teams including 3-seed LSU. Over the next 12 games, all wins, they got their revenge on Temple, and beat UCF and Cincinnati. At 28-1, they lost at home to UCF, beat Cincy again (on the road), made their way to the AAC final, and lost to Cincinnati on a neutral court. The Cougars' last six games look like a mess of greatness bookended by two terrible games. What should we make of the home loss to UCF, and falling to a Bearcat team they beat twice? Houston lost their consistency in the last six games which casts doubt on a deep tournament run, but they played two of their very best games over this stretch, too—the win at Cincinnati and the 84-45 blowout of UConn.

Houston plays great offense and defense, but on D they boast the #1 shot defense in the country; they're #2 against 3-pointers and #5 against the 2. They block a lot of shots, too. On offense the team rebounds very well. Corey Davis Jr leads the team in scoring with 16.7 ppg; he had 26 in Houston's 84-55 first round win over Georgia State, Houston's 3rd game in the last 5 that ranks as one of their best.

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Season overview: Ohio State

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): @(7)Cincinnati+8, (10)Minnesota+20, (10)Iowa+20, =(6)Iowa St.+3
  
• Losses to tournament teams (11): (8)Syracuse-10, (2)Michigan St.-9, @(10)Iowa-10, (6)Maryland-14, (3)Purdue-12, @(2)Michigan-16, @(2)Michigan St.-18, @(6)Maryland-10, @(3)Purdue-35, (5)Wisconsin-OT, =(2)Michigan St.-7
• Other losses (3): @Rutgers-3, Illinois-7, @Northwestern-18

Overview: People absolutely FREAKED when the first NET rankings came out with Ohio State on top. Even Nate Silver didn't understand what was going on. The system uses no priors, so early on it makes sense that it doesn't yet reflect our prejudices. Ohio State played killer basketball early on, and at 6-0 they deserved to be considered among the top teams in the nation...provided you didn't know much yet about their opponents, which the NET didn't, and couldn't possibly at the time. And to be fair, they did beat 7-seed Cincinnati handily on the road. (This is not to say that the NET is a good ranking system, just that it acted as any system would that didn't use previous-season knowledge.)

In any case, Ohio State never played that well again, but they still got off to a 12-1 start...before losing 5 straight to kick off the Big Ten season. There were a few "up" moments—such as beating 10-seeds Minnesota and Iowa by 20 points each—but for the most part they lost to every good conference team they faced, and a few that weren't so good.

They hit bottom with a 35 point loss to Purdue, but they were missing their top scorers, Kaleb Wesson (14.4 ppg) and CJ Jackson (12.2) for that game; both are back. Wesson had 21 points and 12 boards in the 62-59 win over Iowa State.

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Game Analysis: Houston had a huge game in the first round, adding to their recent inconsistency. They've now had three fantastic games, two mediocre, and two awful games out of their last seven. Ohio State on the other hand has been very consistent, at a fairly high level, win or lose over the last four outings.

As we mentioned, Ohio State on defense vs. Houston on offense is a wash on paper. If Ohio State wants to win they'll need a great defensive effort, and they'll need their offense to step up too where they're at a disadvantage. The problem is they shoot poorly to start with and Houston's D is #1 in, essentially, making the other team shoot bad.

Vegas Line:

Houston by   5 1/2

Power rating: spread

Houston by   4.2

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Houston:     58.9% 
Ohio St:     41.1% 

Vegas is giving a bit more than our power rating would, which is a bit unusual. This could be due to Houston winning by 29 and Ohio State winning by 3, or perhaps they are giving some home court edge for being closer to home, more partisans in the arena? Not sure. The historical odds for an 11-seed to beat a 3-seed are around 37%, so the game comparison odds look about right.

Bottom line: Houston played great in the first round but it's hard to know what to expect next. Ohio State played very well, too, and probably will again. That means no easy win for the Cougars, but their defense probably gets it done.

Final prediction: Houston 64, Ohio State 60

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.

2019 NCAA Tournament Second Round Previews, Odds, & Predictions: (1) Virginia vs. (9) Oklahoma

All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule

Virginia Cavaliers
Seed: 1
Record: 30-3
Conference: ACC

vs.

Oklahoma Sooners
Seed: 9
Record: 20-13
Conference: Big Twelve

Date: Sunday, March 24
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Location: Columbia, SC
Region: South
Channel: truTV

 

We figured Virginia would have a mental glitch early in their first round game against a 16-seed. Is it over?

     Virginia                           Oklahoma

Power Ratings

Strength:          #3              Strength:          #36
Pomeroy:           #1              Pomeroy:           #34
   Offense:  #2                       Offense:  #58
   Defense:  #4                       Defense:  #25
BPI:               #1              BPI:               #39
LRMC:              #4              LRMC:              #40

Other Measures:

Tempo (Pomeroy):   #353            Tempo:             #112
Schedule Strength: #26             Schedule Strength: #10 
Consistency:       #109            Consistency:       #226
Consist. Modifier: #1              Consist. Modifier: #37

2nd half season:   #2              2nd half season:   #45
Last 6 games:      #6              Last 6 games:      #49
Road Strength:     #1              Road Strength:     #40
Injury Modifier:   #3              Injury Modifier:   #39

 

Virginia is #1 in Pomeroy and #1 in BPI, #3 in Strength, and #4 in LRMC. Oklahoma has a typical 9-seed profile. Not much else to say here.

Season overview: Virginia

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): =(5)Wisconsin+7, @(6)Maryland+5, (8)VCU+8, (4)Florida St.+13, (4)Virginia Tech+22, @(1)North Carolina+8, @(4)Virginia Tech+6, @(7)Louisville+12, @(8)Syracuse+26, (7)Louisville+5, =Gardner Webb+15
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @(1)Duke-2, (1)Duke-10, =(4)Florida St.-10
• Other losses (0): none
  

Overview: Virginia's 2019 season was pretty much like their 2018 season—lots of wins, and very few losses. They hope it breaks the comparison at this juncture, though. Virginia lost only 3 times. The first loss to Duke was a "good" loss, by 2 points on Duke home court. The next time they lost at home by 10—which again wasn't bad considering Duke inexplicably shot the lights out from behind the arc. The third loss was the troubling one, loing to Florida State by 10 on a neutral court. It was their worst performance of the year. Afterwards there were some concerning locker room quotes about how they felt they got "punked." Hopefully that game allowed them to relive, and reject, the bad feelings from the UMBC loss. But even if it renews them in the short term, the fact that they faltered in the ACC tournament doesn't seem to bode well for their chances of winning the Big Dance.

On the upside, the season included wins over 10 tournament teams, including 1-seed North Carolina. They didn't really play a lot of top seeds outside of Duke. Sure, they can beat 4-seeds, but that only gets you to the Elite Eight. Does having a slightly weak SOS harm them? People ask the question about Gonzaga all the time, but Virginia's SOS is just borderline top 25.

Virginia's offense is actually better than it's defense, believe it or not. That's one thing that should propel the team through the brackets. They're shooting the ball extremely well, especially three-pointers, and limiting turnovers. On defense they're basically the same as last year, making teams shoot poor percentage shots. Kyle Guy leads the team at 15.6 ppg, while De'Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome add 15.1 and 13.0 respectively. Hunter missed last year's game, and after watching from the bench I can only imagine he's ready to go.

Hunter certainly was ready to go, leading the team with 23 points against Gardner Webb. The game looked like deja vu until the 2nd half started and Virginia righted the ship, winning 71-56.

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Season overview: Oklahoma

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): (7)Wofford+11, =(10)Florida+5, (4)Kansas+13, =(8)Mississippi+23
  
• Losses to tournament teams (10): =(5)Wisconsin-20, @(4)Kansas-7, @(3)Texas Tech-7, (4)Kansas St.-13, (9)Baylor-30, (6)Iowa St.-1, (3)Texas Tech-12, @(9)Baylor-6, @(6)Iowa St.-17, @(4)Kansas St.-15
• Other losses (3): @Texas-3, @West Virginia-8, =West Virginia-1

Overview: Oklahoma ran to 11-1 beating 7-seed Wofford and 10-seed Florida on the way, with a 20-point loss to Wisconsin. From there they went 8-12. It started with respectable losses to 4-seed Kansas and 3-seed Texas tech, but pretty soon they hit bottom with a 77-47 loss to 10-seed Baylor—at home. That was the start of a 5-game losing streak. The Sooners would win 4 of their next 5, but ended with two losses. In the end almost all their losses were to tournament teams, but they played a LOT of tournament teams.

Mississippi shoots the ball well, especially from the free-throw line where they hit over 78%. Breein Tyree leads three double-digit scorers with 18.2 ppg. Against Ole Miss the scoring was balanced and big among the starters, with players scoring 20, 20, 19, and 18 in the 95-72 win.

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Game Analysis: Virginia is #1 in Pomeroy and #1 in BPI, yet they still found their score doubled by a 16-seed well into the first half of their first round game, and were behind at the half. What the hell is going on with this team and 16-seeds? Well, last year's incident was a perfect storm, and this year's incident was all psychology—Virginia being afraid of history repeating itself (and thereby fulfilling it), and Gardner Webb believing they could do what UMBC did.

Viriginia recovered in a big way in the 2nd half; if they'd played that way for both halves they would have won by 40 or 50. So is the monkey off their back? Yes, I think so. And will any of that matter against 9-seed Oklahoma? I don't think so. They're playing a major conference team now, not a Cinderella 16-seed. A loss to Oklahoma would be bad, but not devastating. They got the win they need in order to move forward; now they'll just be playing basketball.

But they'll have to be at their best if Oklahoma repeats what they did to Ole Miss in probably their best performance of the season. Oklahoma was slumping coming into the tournament but now it's Virginia who looks a bit on the down side.

Vegas Line:

Virginia by   11

Power rating: spread

Virginia by   10.9

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Virginia:        77.9% 
Oklahoma:        22.1% 

The consensus is 11 points, that's what Virginia should win by, and about 78% of the time. 1-seeds, as we've said before, beat 9-seeds at an incredible 91% rate (compared to about 4 in 5 wins against 8-seeds).

Bottom line: Oklahoma scored 95 in the first round, but that was against a defense well outside the top 50. Virginia's defense is in the top 5. The tempo will be a lot slower, too. The Sooners will have to play a second great game in a row to win, and they didn't have that happen a lot during the season.

Final prediction: Virginia 69, Oklahoma 58

More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.