All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 29-6
Conference: SEC
vs.
Houston Cougars
Seed: 3
Record: 33-3
Conference: American
Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 9:59 pm Eastern
Location: Kansas City, MO
Region: Midwest
Channel: TBS
The last time Houston was in the Sweet Sixteen Hakeem Olajuwon was playing for the Cougars, and back then he was still known as Akeem. Kentucky was here last year.
Kentucky Houston
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 Strength: #13
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #12
Offense: #11 Offense: #21
Defense: #9 Defense: #12
BPI: #7 BPI: #12
LRMC: #9* LRMC: #16*
*from Selection Sunday
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #274 Tempo: #247
Consistency: #321 Consistency: #167
2nd half season: #4 2nd half season: #10
Last 2 games: #6 Last 2 games: #1
It's pretty even on paper between 2-seed Kentucky and 3-seed Houston. Just a few spots separate them in each power rating, and their offenses and defenses are all in the top 25. There is a bit of separation there; Houston's D is a match for Kentucky's offense, but their offense isn't as efficient and Kentucky's D has the edge when the Cougars have the ball. Both play a somewhat slow tempo, and have improved their game in the 2nd half of the season. Looking at just the first two rounds of the tournament, Kentucky has been excellent and Houston's performances were probably the best.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =(1)North Carolina+8, @(7)Louisville+13, @(5)Auburn+2, (5)Mississippi St.+21, (4)Kansas+8, @(10)Florida+11, @(5)Mississippi St.+4, (2)Tennessee+17, (5)Auburn+27, @(8)Mississippi+4, (10)Florida+9, =(15)Abilene Christian+35, =(7)Wofford+6
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (4): =(1)North Carolina+8, @(5)Auburn+2, (2)Tennessee+17, (5)Auburn+27
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Duke-34, =(10)Seton Hall-OT, (3)LSU-2, @(2)Tennessee-19, =(2)Tennessee-4
- Other losses (1): @Alabama-2
Overview: Kentucky got off to a very slow start, losing big to Duke and having some tepid performances against low-rated opponents. They fell to Seton Hall in overtime and despite a big win over 1-seed North Carolina they were 10-3 after falling to Alabama. A few games later things picked up and they completed a 10-game run that included wins over 5-seed Auburn, 5-seed Mississippi State (twice), and 4-seed Kansas. They beat 2-seed Tennessee by 17 at home, but following their 2nd win over Auburn in game 27 they slumped a bit, losing to the Volunteers by 19 on the road, and falling in the rubber match in the SEC tournament in neutral territory. They went 4-4 against the Sweet Sixteen.
Kentucky is in the top ten in offensive rebounding percentage, and they defend the 2-point shot among the best, too. Four Wildcats average in double figures, but leading scorer PJ Washington (14.8, 7.5 rebounds) did not play in the Kentucky's first tournament game. Nevertheless they blasted through Abilene 79-44 behind Keldon Johnson's 25 points after leading 39-13 at the half. The Wildcats handled Wofford 62-56 by holding Fletcher Magee to 8 points on 0-for-12 3-point shooting; Reid Travis led with 14.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (9): (12)Oregon+4, (3)LSU+6, (13)Saint Louis+4, (8)Utah St.+10, (11)Temple+7, @(9)UCF+9, (7)Cincinnati+7, @(7)Cincinnati+16, =(14)Georgia St.+29, =(11)Ohio St.+15
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): (12)Oregon+4, (3)LSU+6
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(11)Temple-4, (9)UCF-5, =(7)Cincinnati-12
- Other losses (0): none
Overview: Losses for Houston were few and far between this season, and they only lost to tournament-bound teams. It took until game 16 for Houston to lose at Temple; by then they'd beaten four tournament teams including 3-seed LSU. Over the next 12 games, all wins, they got their revenge on Temple, and beat UCF and Cincinnati. At 28-1, they lost at home to UCF, beat Cincy again (on the road), made their way to the AAC final, and lost to Cincinnati on a neutral court. The Cougars' last six games look like a mess of greatness bookended by two terrible games. What should we make of the home loss to UCF, and falling to a Bearcat team they beat twice? Houston lost their consistency in the last six games which casts doubt on a deep tournament run, but they played two of their very best games over this stretch, too—the win at Cincinnati and the 84-45 blowout of UConn. By beating both Oregon and LSU in the pre-conference season Houston went 2-0 vs. the 2019 Sweet Sixteeen.
Houston plays great offense and defense, but on D they boast the #1 shot defense in the country; they're #2 against 3-pointers and #5 against the 2. They block a lot of shots, too. On offense the team rebounds very well. Corey Davis Jr leads the team in scoring with 16.7 ppg; he had 26 in Houston's 84-55 first round win over Georgia State, Houston's 3rd game in the last 5 that ranks as one of their best. They followed that up with a 74-59 win over Ohio State that is also one of their best; Davis led with 21.
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Game Analysis: Houston is really playing well lately. Before the tournament started they looked a bit erratic, with two great games followed by a flat game and a loss. But two more great games later and that makes 4 out 6 stellar efforts. Houston is not normally inconsistent, so it's likely the sub-par games were the anomaly. In that same span Kentucky has played well, too, but has only one great game, possibly two.
PJ Washington hasn't played during the tournament and is still questionable for the Wildcats. That didn't matter against Abilene Christian, but it would have against Wofford if the Terriers had shot their threes even close to the normal rate. Against Houston his absence will be a factor. They can overcome it certainly but they need their leading scorer to be at full strength. A video of PJ walking without his cast has emerged and suggests he might be ready by Friday.
Kentucky shoots 3's at a very low rate, which kind of waste's Houston's #1 defense against the three. But the Cougars are #5 against 2-pointers. What Kentucky does well on offense is rebound and get to the line; Houston rebound fairly well on defense, but they do foul quite a bit. Look for a lot of UK points on 2nd chance shots and the charity stripe. Houston isn't a great shooting team; they rebound well but other than that, they don't excel in one area. They're decent at about everything. Kentucky's D defends 2-point shots really well and gets quite a few blocks.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 3
Power rating: spread
Kentucky by 2.4
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kentucky: 57.4%
Houston: 42.6%
Vegas and our Strength power rating agree that UK is a slim favorite. 2-seeds normally win 63% of these matchups and this one looks a bit tighter than that.
Bottom line: There are a lot of reasons to think Houston will win this game. They're playing great, they are probably hungrier to get to the Elite Eight since it's been 35 years rather than 1 year for Kentucky, and the Wildcats might still be missing their leading scorer. Because I didn't have either team advancing, there's no original pick to stick to...and because I feel bad for picking a 15-seed and then a 7-seed to upset the Wildcats, I think I should go with them so as not to make their fans think I'm biased in some way. Hope it doesn't jinx them!
Final prediction: Kentucky 68, Houston 66
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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