All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 1
Record: 31-5
Conference: ACC
vs.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Seed: 4
Record: 26-8
Conference: ACC
Date: Friday, March 29
Time: 9:39 pm Eastern
Location: Washington, DC
Region: East
Channel: CBS
Virginia Tech is one of two teams to beat Duke where Duke didn't return the favor—now's their chance. It's also the Hokies' chance to go up 2-0 on the Blue Devils.
Duke Virginia Tech
Power Ratings
Strength: #2 Strength: #11
Pomeroy: #4 Pomeroy: #11
Offense: #7 Offense: #12
Defense: #6 Defense: #19
BPI: #3 BPI: #11
LRMC: #2* LRMC: #14*
*from Selection Sunday
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #18 Tempo: #332
Consistency: #268 Consistency: #54
2nd half season: #8 2nd half season: #16
Last 2 games: #29 Last 2 games: #28
Injury modifier: #1 Injury modifier: #11
This all-ACC matchup is pretty even for a 1-seed vs. a 4-seed. It's not Duke making it that way: the Hokies are a very strong 4-seed, nearly a top ten team and ranking in the top 20 in both offense and defense. The teams are near-opposites in tempo and consistency, with the latter mostly due to Duke's temporary loss of Zion Williamson. Virginia Tech also lost a starter for several games and got him back; Justin Robinson missed 11 games, but it didn't impact the Hokies as much as losing Zion did the Blue Devils. Virginia Tech would be ranked #12 in our Strength rating if they lost Robinson again, while Duke would fall to #17 without Williamson. Using just the sample of games at full strength, Duke moves to #1 while the Hokies also improve but stay at #11.
Neither team has played particularly well in the tournament so far, with Virginia Tech ranking #28 and Duke #29 over the last 2 games; among the Sweet Sixteen teams, they rank #13 and #14.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =(2)Kentucky+34, =(5)Auburn+6, (14)Yale+33, =(3)Texas Tech+11, @(4)Florida St.+2, (1)Virginia+2, (11)St. John's+30, @(1)Virginia+10, @(7)Louisville+2, @(8)Syracuse+10, =(8)Syracuse+12, =(1)North Carolina+1, =(4)Florida St.+10, =(16)North Dakota St.+23, =(9)UCF+1
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (8): =(2)Kentucky+34, =(5)Auburn+6, =(3)Texas Tech+11, @(4)Florida St.+2, (1)Virginia+2, @(1)Virginia+10, =(1)North Carolina+1, =(4)Florida St.+10
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Gonzaga-2, (8)Syracuse-OT, (1)North Carolina-16, @(4)Virginia Tech-5, @(1)North Carolina-9
- Other losses (0): none
Overview: For some reason Duke was not the consensus #1 pre-season pick, despite having the #1, #2, and #3 recruits by some estimates. In game one Duke showed that they were THE team to beat, by crushing Kentucky 118-84. Duke shot to #1 in the polls.
There were bound to be growing pains with a team of freshmen, and they lost to eventual 1-seed Gonzaga by a bucket. They handed 5-seed Auburn and 3-Texas Tech their first losses. They lost to Syracuse when missing two starters, then cleaned out the ACC, beating 1-seed Virginia twice and engineering a 23-point comeback to beat Louisville before the showdown with North Carolina. We all know what happened there: the team fell apart without Zion Williamson, and Duke went into a slump, losing to Virginia Tech, almost losing to lowly Wake Forest, and losing to UNC again before the ship was righted with Zion's return. The three games they won in tournament play were solid and consistent, just what you want to see before entering the Big Dance. Amazingly, Duke has 8 wins against teams that reached the Sweet Sixteen—and 4 of their 5 losses are to the Sweet Sixteen as well! They played 9 of the 15 other teams.
Duke has weaknesses; they are a very bad 3-point shooting team at 30.2%. They're so good at 2-pointers (4th in the nation) that they rarely need to shoot the three. When they did against Virginia they shot the lights out, but that was probably a freak occurrence. On defense they're #4 in both blocks and steals. They're a great offensive rebounding team, but not great at free throws.
Zion Williamson isn't just Duke's most valuable player, he is the best in college basketball by a wide margin. In our Injury Modifier ratings, Duke is 3 points better when counting only the games where he's in the lineup; in the small sample (6 games) where he's gone, Duke played 13 points worse and slips to #18 in the nation. Williamson is imposing at 6' 7" and 285 pounds conservatively, and averages 22.1 ppg and 8.9 rebounds. And he's not even the leading scorer; that title goes to RJ Barrett at 22.9 (and 7.5 boards). Cam Reddish rounds out the double digit scorers at 13.7 ppg. Center Marques Bolden didn't play in the ACC tournament but returned for the first game.
RJ Barrett led with 26 points (and 14 rebounds) in the 85-62 win over North Dakota State, while Zion added 25. The end of the 77-76 UCF win was almost an instant replay of the 71-70 Wake Forest win on March 5: a missed shot with a put-back that goes in, rolls out, and rolls off the rim. Duke has the basketball gods to thank for that one, as well as Williamson's 32 points and 11 rebounds.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (16)Gardner Webb+28, =(13)Northeastern+28, =(3)Purdue+6, =(9)Washington+12, (8)Syracuse+22, (1)Duke+5, =(13)Saint Louis+14, =(12)Liberty+9
- Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen (2): =(3)Purdue+6, (1)Duke+5
- Losses to tournament teams (6): @(1)Virginia-22, @(1)North Carolina-21, (7)Louisville-8, (1)Virginia-6, @(4)Florida St.-OT, =(4)Florida St.-OT
- Other losses (2): @Penn St.-1, @Clemson-8
Overview: Virginia Tech quietly had a great season; they weren't even too heralded at 14-1, probably because they had lost to Penn State and the win over 3-seed Purdue didn't look impressive yet. They lost big games to North Carolina and Virginia and were written off as 2nd-rate. But their next three wins were incredible, especially the 47-24 humiliation of North Carolina State (they say it was non-conference SOS, but I think it was that game that kept the Wolfpack out of the tournament). The Hokies lost to Virginia again, then they beat Duke—but without Zion, doesn't count right? They lost two of their last four (both were overtime losses to 4-seed FSU). So no one really expects much from Virginia Tech. If you look at their chart, they're playing high-level, consistent basketball—the kind that allows you to make a deep tournament run. The Hokies went 2-5 vs. the rest of the Sweet Sixteen.
The Hokies are in the top ten nationally in field goal shooting, and nearly top 25 in turnovers on defense. They also force teams to take long shots (50% of opponent attempts are threes) and use up a long time trying to penetrate the zone. Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads four players in double figures (that's with Justin Robinson back in the lineup, as expected) with 16.6 ppg. Alexander-Walker had 20 points in VT's 66-52 win over Saint Louis. The Hokies beat upstart Liberty 67-58 behind Kerry Blackshear's 19.
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Game Analysis: Almost every national champ has a big test along the way, a game they win by a single basket or in overtime. We picked Duke to win it all and figured that test would come. We didn't think it would come so soon against Central Florida! In fact, it was this matchup, vs. Virginia Tech, that we pegged early on as Duke's near-loss. Now that they faced a test against UCF, it probably makes it less likely that the same thing happens against the Hokies.
Though Duke ranks as the #1 team when they have Williamson, they clearly aren't playing as well since his return as they did at their peak. As disrupted as they were by his loss they seem to not quite have jibed with his return, like they forgot how to play with him. It's not his injury—that's clearly gone, and he's as good as ever, maybe even better. But how they can barely edge a team like UCF with Williamson scoring 32 points is beyond me. It happened in his first game back: At the half, Zion was 9 of 9 shooting but Duke was only 6 points ahead of Syracuse. After struggling, then learning to play without him, the rest of the team has slacked off since his return.
While Florida State tries to portray itself as the 'forgotten' team in the ACC amidst all the 1-seeds, Virginia Tech could claim that crown, too. They're just as good (they lost to FSU twice, both in overtime) and a lot more overlooked than the Seminoles. With both teams playing 1-seeds before the weekend, both have the chance to get some major notice.
Most people are discounting the first meeting between these teams—a 77-72 home win for Virginia Tech—since Duke didn't have Zion Williamson in the lineup at the time. That's a pretty reasonable stance to take, as the Blue Devils are vastly better when they have him. Yet they don't seem to be quite the same as before, so by that measure the game could be very close. Then we have to consider psychology. If the Blue Devils had defeated the Hokies easily in their first meeting, we could expect to find Duke napping a bit. But they'll have motivation—and a bit of fear—from losing the first game. We think we'll see the Blue Devils at their best this time around.
Starter Ty Outlaw, Virginia Tech's 5th leading scorer, might miss the game after being charged with pot possession; no announcement has been made. UPDATE: Outlaw has passed a drug test and will play.
Vegas Line:
Duke by 7
Power rating: spread
Duke by 7.3
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Duke: 71.7%
Virginia Tech: 28.3%
Vegas and our power rating both put the expected margin at 7 points. And Duke's 72% chance to win almost exactly matches the historical odds for a 1-seed to beat a 4-seed.
The Blue Devils have played 5 games since Zion Williamson's return, and they're playing a few rungs lower than before he wast hurt, at maybe #5 in the nation. That's just 3 points better than Virginia Tech. And if we look at their play during the tournament, these teams are neck and neck.
Bottom line: Virginia Tech beat Duke before and they can do it again if Duke doesn't take them seriously. But we expect Duke to be motivated for a number of reasons and play their best against Virginia Tech. When they do that, no one can beat them.
Final prediction: Duke 78, Virginia Tech 68
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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