All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 28-6
Conference: SEC
vs.
Wofford Terriers
Seed: 7
Record: 30-4
Conference: Southern
Date: Saturday, March 23
Time: 2:40 pm Eastern
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Region: Midwest
Channel: CBS
In 2008 Davidson upset 2-seed Georgetown in the 2nd round. It's time to see if our Wofford-Davidson comparison holds any water.
Kentucky Wofford
Power Ratings
Strength: #8 Strength: #25
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #18
Offense: #13 Offense: #10
Defense: #12 Defense: #62
BPI: #7 BPI: #17
LRMC: #9 LRMC: #24
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #264 Tempo: #274
Schedule Strength: #24 Schedule Strength: #198
Consistency: #323 Consistency: #224
Consist. Modifier: #13 Consist. Modifier: #29
2nd half season: #5 2nd half season: #19
Last 6 games: #21 Last 6 games: #4
Road Strength: #8 Road Strength: #17
Injury Modifier: #8 Injury Modifier: #28
Kentucky as a 2-seed is naturally ranked higher than 7-seed Wofford, but the latter shows up particularly well in Pomeroy and BPI, and their offense is at least at Kentucky's level. The big difference here is on defense, where Kentucky still shines and the Terriers, while not incompetent, are not great. And clearly Kentucky has played the tougher schedule. That said, Wofford has played a 1-seed this year so they know roughly what they're up against.
The tempo should be slower, and generally the predictability for this game is low; both these are good for the Terriers. It's good for Wofford's chances of pulling off an upset if things don't go to script, and the slower pace could help keep the score tighter. Both teams are playing great basketball right now; the Wildcats' 2nd half of season rating is top 5, as is Wofford's last 6 games composite. Should be a good one.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =(1)North Carolina+8, @(7)Louisville+13, @(5)Auburn+2, (5)Mississippi St.+21, (4)Kansas+8, @(10)Florida+11, @(5)Mississippi St.+4, (2)Tennessee+17, (5)Auburn+27, @(8)Mississippi+4, (10)Florida+9, =(15)Abilene Christian+35
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(1)Duke-34, =(10)Seton Hall-OT, (3)LSU-2, @(2)Tennessee-19, =(2)Tennessee-4
- Other losses (1): @Alabama-2
Overview: Kentucky got off to a very slow start, losing big to Duke and having some tepid performances against low-rated opponents. They fell to Seton Hall in overtime and despite a big win over 1-seed North Carolina they were 10-3 after falling to Alabama. A few games later things picked up and they completed a 10-game run that included wins over 5-seed Auburn, 5-seed Mississippi State (twice), and 4-seed Kansas. They beat 2-seed Tennessee by 17 at home, but following their 2nd win over Auburn in game 27 they slumped a bit, losing to the Volunteers by 19 on the road, and falling in the rubber match in the SEC tournament in neutral territory.
Kentucky is in the top ten in offensive rebounding percentage, and they defend the 2-point shot among the best, too. Four Wildcats average in double figures, but leading scorer PJ Washington (14.8, 7.5 rebounds) did not play in the Kentucky's first tournament game. Nevertheless they blasted through Abilene 79-44 behind Keldon Johnson's 25 points after leading 39-13 at the half.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): =(10)Seton Hall+16
- Losses to tournament teams (4): (1)North Carolina-11, @(9)Oklahoma-11, @(4)Kansas-25, @(5)Mississippi St.-11
- Other losses (0): none
Overview: You could hear the rap against Wofford: sure, they were 29-4 but they entered the tournament with no wins against the field. They did play four tournament teams, and did well against 1-seed North Carolina, 9-seed Oklahoma, and 5-seed Mississippi, but they didn't win those games. And they lost at Kansas by 25 points. So they went 18-0 in their conference (and ultimately 21-0), how good is the Southern Conference anyway? Well, to tell the truth there are some good teams in the Southern Conference: East Tennessee State (24-9), UNC Greensboro (29-6), and Furman (25-7) are all top 100 teams, and they lost to Wofford thrice, thrice, and twice. In other words their records would be 24-6, 29-3, and 25-5 without the Terriers.
Let's look at another Southern Conference representative from the past, and see what they looked like before the tournament started:
- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): @(13)Winthrop+13
- Losses to tournament teams (3): (1)North Carolina-4, (2)Duke-6, @(1)UCLA-12
- Other losses (3): @Western Michigan-7, @Charlotte-7, @North Carolina St.-1
The team above did have a tournament win, over a 13-seed. They also had 3 close losses to good tournament teams—in this case, very close losses to great teams—but they also had three poor losses. Their SOS was #187, roughly the same as Wofford's #198. And this team, 2008 Davidson (26-6), reached the Elite Eight as a 10-seed. They also ranked anywhere from #3 to #6 in recent play (pre-tourney), depending on how it's calculated, similar to Wofford's #4 ranking. In short, don't dismiss the Terriers due to their weak schedule and lack of big wins. And now with the win over Seton Hall, the resumé looks even more similar. Their defense, however, is poor compared to how Davidson's was.
Wofford ranks 2nd in 3-point shooting; Fletcher Magee averages 20.5 points per game, tops among three in double figures. He broke the NCAA career record for 3-pointers in the 84-68 win over Seton Hall, scoring 24 points with 7 treys.
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Game Analysis: As we mentioned above, the game should have a slow tempo and both teams are fairly erratic. This plays into Wofford's hands: slower tempo means the game doesn't get out of hand as quickly if they fall behind; and the Terriers would like to knock the game off the average scenario, where Kentucky is expected to win. Of course there's the chance that the Wildcats have a better-than-normal game, too, and/or that Wofford plays sub-par. But the average scenario is not what Wofford wants, and with both teams unpredictable, the average is less likely to happen.
In the Wofford-Davidson comparison, Fletcher Magee will have to sub for Stephen Curry. In one way at least he's very similar: he's the premier 3-point shooter in college basketball today, and the all-time NCAA leader (Curry is just outside the top ten on that list, though he had fewer games). The important point is that it was Curry's 3-point shooting that killed 2-seed Georgetown in 2008, and Magee has the chance to do the same thing to the 2-seed Wildcats.
Vegas Line:
Kentucky by 5
Power rating: spread
Kentucky by 5.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kentucky: 64.9%
Wofford: 35.1%
Vegas and our Strength power rating basically agree that UK is a solid favorite, but the game comparison system say Wofford is a live underdog, expected to win 35% of the time. Historically, 7-seeds have a 31% win rate.
Bottom line: Our lottery-ticket pick against Kentucky fell flat in a big way, as most lottery tickets do. But we're doubling-down on a much more realistic upset bid by Wofford to take out the Wildcats. If Kentucky wins, we promise we won't pick against them next time around. But today we have Wofford by a Magee three.
Final prediction: Wofford 76, Kentucky 73
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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