All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Seed: 5
Record: 23-10
Conference: SEC
vs.
Liberty Flames
Seed: 12
Record: 28-6
Conference: Atlantic Sun
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 7:27 pm Eastern
Location: San Jose, CA
Region: East
Channel: truTV
I sure hope I'm the only one who hears that stupid "Liberty, Liberty, Liberty....Liberty" commercial when researching the Flames.
Mississippi State Liberty
Power Ratings
Strength: #22 Strength: #94
Pomeroy: #21 Pomeroy: #63
Offense: #14 Offense: #56
Defense: #52 Defense: #95
BPI: #22 BPI: #62
LRMC: #21 LRMC: #64
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #179 Tempo: #349
Schedule Strength: #31 Schedule Strength: #311
Consistency: #43 Consistency: #85
Consist. Modifier: #16 Consist. Modifier: #83
2nd half season: #23 2nd half season: #108
Last 6 games: #20 Last 6 games: #97
Road Strength: #19 Road Strength: #82
Injury Modifier: #21 Injury Modifier: #92
What's striking here how much all the power ratings agree on Mississippi State—either #21 or #22—and how far away from Strength the other power ratings are when evaluating Liberty. I've never quite seen it this drastic. It makes sense for Pomeroy and BPI to be different, since both use pace-adjusted efficiency metrics and Liberty's super-slow pace can have a big effect. But the LRMC does nothing of the sort, and Liberty is in the low 60s there, too, while we have them in the mid-90s. Interesting.
The offense and defense figures suggest a tight battle when Liberty has the ball, but when the Bulldogs are on offense they should coast. Liberty holds the ball...and holds the ball...until they have a shot, which is what makes their pace so slow. Their average defensive "possession" is just average. Schedule strength is a huge discrepancy here, with Liberty's SOS among the lowest. Both teams are very consistent which works against the idea of an upset.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =(11)Saint Mary's+4, (7)Cincinnati+11, (7)Wofford+11, (10)Florida+3, (5)Auburn+8, @(8)Mississippi+6
- Losses to tournament teams (8): =(11)Arizona St.-5, (8)Mississippi-4, @(2)Kentucky-21, (3)LSU-OT, (2)Kentucky-4, @(5)Auburn-5, @(2)Tennessee-17, =(2)Tennessee-7
- Other losses (2): @South Carolina-OT, @Alabama-4
Overview: Mississippi State, like a lot of major conference teams, was coasting along pretty good at 12-1 when conference play began, and they began to lose. It's not like they played an easy non-conference slate, though; they have the 99th rated NC-SOS according to Pomeroy, and they beat 11-Saint Mary's, 7-Cincinnati, and 7-Wofford while losing to 11-seed Arizona State. Still, things were tough right off the bat and the Bulldogs were soon 4-6 in conference play. And that included their wins over Florida, Auburn, and Ole Miss! A five-game winning streak helped right the ship, but they wouldn't beat another tournament-bound team the rest of the way, losing to Auburn once and Tennessee twice. They didn't beat any of the SEC's 2- and 3-seeds despite five shots at them.
When on defense the Bulldogs get blocks and steals, and on offense they shoot and rebound well. Quinndary Weatherspoon leads the team with 18.2 points per game; brother Nick was suspended from the team in mid-February; it hasn't seemed to affect Quinndary's output.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): (14)Georgia St.+26
- Losses to tournament teams (0): none
- Other losses (6): @Vanderbilt-9, @Georgetown-10, @Alabama-9, =Austin Peay-9, Lipscomb-20, @North Florida-5
Overview: In the pre-conference season, Liberty beat the only tournament team they played: 14-seed Georgia State, and did so handily, 78-52 (game 8). They failed at three attempts at beating a major-conference foe, losing to Vanderbilt, Georgetown, and Alabama before finally scoring a win at UCLA, 73-58 (game 15), which drove the nail into Bruin coach Steve Alford's job-coffin. It also sparked the Flames to a win streak as the Atlantic Sun season began. The Flames lost badly to Lipscomb, probably still the conference's best team, but they deserved the NCAA bid after beating them on the road twice (games 27 and 34).
Liberty waits a long time for the right shot, and they usually make it; they're the #12 shooting team in the nation, and the 2-point shot is their forte, not the 3. They're also great at free throws (top ten in nation). Forward Scottie James is the team's leading scorer (13.1 ppg) and rebounder (8.8).
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Game Analysis: Both these teams are coming from waayyyyy across this country to play in San Jose. It should affect them about equally, though.
Looking at the matchups, Liberty's patient offense will probably give Mississippi State's middling defense fits. No doubt they will take their time and probably make their shots. But the Bulldogs should thrive on the other end, as long as they don't get flustered. A few steals on defense wouldn't hurt.
Vegas Line:
Mississippi State by 6 1/2
Power rating: spread
Mississippi State by 9 1/2
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Mississippi St: 77.4%
Liberty: 22.6%
Vegas' line is a bit slimmer than our power rating projects, and Ken Pomeroy agrees with the lower estimate, which correlates with his power rating's higher opinion of the Flames. I'd go with the lower estimate, too, since the game will be played pretty slow, which should keep the score down and the margin tighter.
Bottom line: The Flames haven't beaten anyone as good as Mississippi State, and the Bulldogs haven't lost to anyone worse than Liberty. If they don't get impatient Mississippi State should slowly pull away.
Final prediction: Mississippi State 68, Liberty 62
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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