All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 4
Record: 25-8
Conference: Big Twelve
vs.
UC Irvine Anteaters
Seed: 13
Record: 30-5
Conference: Big West
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 2:00 pm Eastern
Location: San Jose, CA
Region: South
Channel: TBS
Kansas State has two problems in going for a deep tourney run: their lack of consistency, and the probable loss of Dean Wade. The latter might hurt them as early as this game against UC Irvine.
Kansas State UC Irvine
Power Ratings
Strength: #25 Strength: #87
Pomeroy: #23 Pomeroy: #75
Offense: #102 Offense: #125
Defense: #4 Defense: #58
BPI: #25 BPI: #82
LRMC: #25 LRMC: #65
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #342 Tempo: #296
Schedule Strength: #32 Schedule Strength: #213
Consistency: #311 Consistency: #149
Consist. Modifier: #35 Consist. Modifier: #85
2nd half season: #10 2nd half season: #76
Last 6 games: #22 Last 6 games: #34
Road Strength: #13 Road Strength: #71
Injury Modifier: #71 Injury Modifier: #87
These teams are all that far apart considering their seed discrepancy. K-State rates as a weak 4-seed, settling in as a borderline top 25 team by consensus of the power ratings. Meanwhile UC Irvine is probably the strongest of the 13-seeds; they're tops in Strength and Pomeroy, and rate a respectable #65 in LRMC. Both teams feature great defensive play while they struggle on offense relatively. Combine that with two teams that play at a slow tempo and you have a recipe for a low-scoring game.
Kansas State is a pretty inconsistent team, which hurts their chances for a deep run should they advance here. They've played like a top ten team in the 2nd half of the season, however, and their strength of play away from home is excellent (#13). Their biggest problem right now is their injury situation. They play a lot better with Dean Wade in the lineup, ranking #18 rather than their overall #25; however, without him they rank #71, and he's expected to miss the tournament. That makes this game a whole lot closer.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (14)Georgia St.+12, @(6)Iowa St.+1, @(9)Oklahoma+13, (3)Texas Tech+13, (4)Kansas+7, @(9)Baylor+7, (9)Baylor+6, (9)Oklahoma+15
- Losses to tournament teams (5): @(5)Marquette-12, @(3)Texas Tech-6, (6)Iowa St.-14, @(4)Kansas-15, =(6)Iowa St.-4
- Other losses (3): @Tulsa-1, Texas-20, @Texas A&M-12
Overview: Kansas State was 11-4 and not regarded as a great team when they got Dean Wade back from injury; they promptly upset 6-seed Iowa State on the road; from there, they got wins over 3-seed Texas Tech and 4-seed Kansas among others over a 13-3 run before the Big Twelve tournament. They also had a few bad losses along the way every now and then. In the Big Twelve tournament they were without Wade again; they bowed out in game 2, losing to Iowa State for then 2nd time. Their low consistency rating stems from the occasional bad losses they suffered along the way.
Wade averages 12.9 points and 6.2 rebounds for the Wildcats and without him they've played considerably worse, by about 7 points on average. It's a decent sized sample as "missing player" stats go, 8 games during which the Wildcats went 5-3. Their last 2 games are part of the sample, and they did fairly well in beating TCU and losing a close game to Iowa State. They have three others who average in double figures, led by Barry Brown Jr (14.9 ppg).
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (2): @(11)Saint Mary's+5, (15)Montana+9
- Losses to tournament teams (1): (8)Utah St.-24
- Other losses (4): =Toledo-7, @Butler-17, @Pacific-OT, Long Beach St.-10
Overview: UC Irvine was 14-5 at mid-season but has been 16-0 since then, and very consistent. They played their two best games late in the season, including the 92-64 win over Fullerton State that gave them an NCAA berth. They also beat 11-seed St. Mary's in game 8.
On defense UC Irvine is #1 against 2-point shots and #5 overall in holding opponents to a low shooting percentage. On offense they're a decent rebounding team. Max Hazzard leads the team in scoring at a 12.5 clip.
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Game Analysis: This looked like a clear pick for Kansas State when Dean Wade was set to return to the lineup. Now, it looks like a very close win for the Wildcats, meaning that it's tempting to make an upset pick. When a team is without a key player, it doesn't mean they'll get upset right away, but looking down the line it hurts a team's chances of a deep run. K-State was alread suspect due to their inconsistency, and Wade's absence just hastens their departure. Given that K-State isn't going to be deep into our brackets, there's little harm in picking them to be upset now instead of later on. But is it smart to pick an upset for that reason? It's more likely that K-State wins here and loses in the 2nd round, so that's the more "accurate" pick. But with that philosophy, you'd make only one or two upset picks per field of 64.
One legitimate reason UC Irvine might beat K-State is their defense. The Wildcats already don't shoot the ball well, and Irvine is #1 against the 2-point shot where K-State gets most of its points. We have to mostly ignore the other side of the court, where K-State's defense is #4 in efficiency against a poor Irvine offense.
In truth, both teams play terrible offense. Given that, and the slow tempo both play, it's going to be a low scoring affair. That tends to keep games closer than an uptempo game. Irvine definitely has a chance. And if teams become "accustomed" to winning, they're a good pick, as they have the nation's longest winning streak right now.
Vegas Line:
Kansas State by 4 1/2
Power rating: spread
Kansas State by 8.3 (*1.1)
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Kansas State: 70.2% (55.7%)
UC Irvine: 29.8% (44.3%)
Look how much lower Vegas has the line compared to the Strength power rating—that's no doubt due to Dean Wade's absence. Our game comparison system yields a 70% win chance for the Wildcats, without correcting for Wade being gone. With that correction, the spread falls to just over a point and K-State has a very narrow advantage at 56%.
Bottom line: This year we're taking the philosophy that you have to go for it and pick upsets. It just has to be close, because if a team is favored to win it really ceases to be an upset. This should be done pragmatically in your brackets—don't have a potential Final Four team get upset. But if it's a team that you think probably won't make it very far, go ahead. Here, there are two reasons to doubt a deep run by K-State: their inconsistency and now their injury issues. Just one of these wouldn't be enough for us to pull the trigger, but the combination of the two leads us to take the plunge.
Final prediction: UC Irvine 58, Kansas State 53
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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