All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
LSU Tigers
Seed: 3
Record: 26-6
Conference: SEC
vs.
Yale Bulldogs
Seed: 14
Record: 22-7
Conference: Ivy League
Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 12:40 pm Eastern
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Region: East
Channel: truTV
Will the absence of their head coach affect LSU in their bid to advance against Yale?
LSU Yale
Power Ratings
Strength: #21 Strength: #85
Pomeroy: #18 Pomeroy: #84
Offense: #10 Offense: #134
Defense: #62 Defense: #76
BPI: #24 BPI: #76
LRMC: #22 LRMC: #106
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #66 Tempo: #42
Schedule Strength: #41 Schedule Strength: #156
Consistency: #5 Consistency: #145
Consist. Modifier: #11 Consist. Modifier: #80
2nd half season: #18 2nd half season: #94
Last 6 games: #7 Last 6 games: #143
Road Strength: #21 Road Strength: #78
Injury Modifier: #22 Injury Modifier: #83
As expected of a 3-seed, LSU outclasses Yale in every power rating, ranking generally in the low 20s while the Bulldogs hover around 80 (except for LRMC, which has no love). LSU's top-10 offense looks well-equipped to handle Yale's decent defense, while the Tigers' similarly unspectacular D can probably deal with Yale's pedestrian skills on the other side of the court. It might make for a fun game, though, as these two high-paced teams go at it.
LSU has played a much tougher schedule, naturally; they will be the 2nd best team (after Duke) the Bulldogs have faced all season. The Tigers are also a very consistent team, one of the most consistent in the nation, while Yale is of average variability. This will be a lot to overcome for the Bulldogs, and bodes well for LSU going forward—as long as their coaching crisis doesn't negatively impact them.
So far it hasn't; they're playing their best basketball recently, going back 6 games which includes two games without coach Will Wade. Meanwhile Yale is on something of a skid, even with the Ivy League tourney championship that put them into the Big Dance.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =(11)Saint Mary's+4, @(8)Mississippi+14, @(5)Mississippi St.+OT, (5)Auburn+5, @(2)Kentucky+2, (2)Tennessee+OT, @(10)Florida+OT
- Losses to tournament teams (4): =(4)Florida St.-OT, @(3)Houston-6, (10)Florida-OT, =(10)Florida-3
- Other losses (2): =Oklahoma St.-13, Arkansas-1
Overview: LSU's consistency is clear from their chart; they win but don't dominate, and they still play well in losing (notwithstanding the 90-77 loss to 12-20 Oklahoma State in game 7 above). What's remarkable though is that the Tigers were involved in seven overtime games this year on won 5 of them. That includes beating 2-seed Tennessee, as well as 5-seed Mississippi State and 10-seed Florida. They also lost to Florida and Florida State in extra innings. The Tigers beat 2-seed Kentucky on the road, narrowly but in regulation.
The last two games are worth a look as they are the two games the team has played under interim coach Tony Benford. The first, against Vanderbilt, was an 80-59 rout at home. The second was a hard-fought 76-73 loss where a late technical foul called on Benford led to a 6-point play by Florida. So even if the team stayed cool about the coaching challenge, it ended up affecting them. Overall, the team played well however.
The Tigers are 5th in the nation in steals on defense, and LSU's very efficient offense is further jazzed by great offensive rebounding, also #5 in the nation. Four Tigers score in double digits led by Tremont Waters' 15.1.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (1): (16)Iona+15
- Losses to tournament teams (2): @(13)Vermont-9, @(1)Duke-33
- Other losses (5): @Memphis-OT, @Harvard-16, Harvard-2, Columbia-8, @Penn-11
Overview: The good news is that Yale has indeed defeated a tournament opponent; the bad news is that it's 16-seed Iona. They have played a 1-seed, losing at Duke 91-58, as well as at Vermont. Nothing in their resumé suggests they can beat a 3-seed, but after last year's Virginia debacle everyone has hope. Unfortunately for Yale it looks like they're going through a bit of a swoon, despite their Ivy tourney success; just prior, they had two of their worst losses (to Columbia and Penn). Their 3-game recovery (two wins over Princeton, one over Harvard) was quite a bit better, though perhaps not at beat-a-3-seed level.
Yale does a few things very well: they shoot the ball well (11th in the nation), they defend the shot well, and they rebound well on defense. Guard Miye Oni (17.6) leads four scorers in double figures.
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Game Analysis: A lot of people are picking this upset, with the reasoning that LSU won't be able to deal with the pressure of not having their head coach, Will Wade (not Wade Wilson; that's Deadpool), on the sidelines with them. It's true that interim coach Tony Benford's technical foul probably cost them a win in the SEC tournament, but the team doesn't look like it's in "disarray" as some comentators have posited (the word "turmoil" is used a lot, too).
Players and teams can respond in different ways to the absence of a coach. Sometimes the team falls apart; other times, it rallies. At least in their home game vs. Vanderbilt, the former happened. Against Florida, there was disarray but it was caused by the technical foul call. An outside observer might assume that when a coach is caught up in a scandal that the team is left unanchored, but it appears that the group is getting along pretty well. After all, they're one of the most consistent teams in the country.
Instead of focusing on the coaching, let's look on the court. Expect a fairly high-scoring game due to the pace. A key clash will be on the boards, where LSU has great offensive rebounding (#5) vs. Yale's great defensive rebounding (#24). A big area of concern for Yale will be turnovers; LSU is #5 while Yale is victimized a lot.
Vegas Line:
LSU by 7.5
Power rating: spread
LSU by 8.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
LSU: 78.9%
Yale: 21.1%
Vegas is a little less sure of an LSU win than our Strength power rating, but only by just a bit. Perhaps the coaching issue has moved the line, but I'm not so sure. In any case, LSU's 79% chance to win is just under the 85% rate of an average 3 vs. 14 matchup historically.
Bottom line: Yale's offense isn't great, but if they shoot as well as they can they can keep it close. Then they will probably have to depend on another coaching error on LSU's part to win by a point. If they play like they did against Harvard and LSU performs the same as they did against Florida—coach getting a 'T' and all—Yale can pull off the upset. But the Tigers are too consistent and, regardless of the situation on the sidelines, have too great of an advantage on both ends of the court for us to think that will happen.
Final prediction: LSU 85, Yale 81
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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