All previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule
Houston Cougars
Seed: 3
Record: 31-3
Conference: American
vs.
Georgia State Panthers
Seed: 14
Record: 24-9
Conference: Sun Belt
Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 7:20 pm Eastern
Location: Tulsa, OK
Region: Midwest
Channel: TBS
Can the Panthers run with the Cougars? Do they want to?
Houston Georgia State
Power Ratings
Strength: #15 Strength: #115
Pomeroy: #15 Pomeroy: #111
Offense: #24 Offense: #107
Defense: #13 Defense: #137
BPI: #14 BPI: #103
LRMC: #16 LRMC: #105
Other Measures:
Tempo (Pomeroy): #245 Tempo: #72
Schedule Strength: #86 Schedule Strength: #115
Consistency: #148 Consistency: #91
Consist. Modifier: #15 Consist. Modifier: #105
2nd half season: #11 2nd half season: #113
Last 6 games: #50 Last 6 games: #75
Road Strength: #7 Road Strength: #110
Injury Modifier: #13 Injury Modifier: #115
As is inevitable with a 3 vs. 14 matchup, the 3-seed looks better from a power rating perspective. The Cougars will enjoy a decided efficiency advantage on both ends of the court. The question is whether the game is played at Houston's calmer tempo or if the Panthers can speed things up.
The only thing that makes this game interesting is perhaps the recent play of both teams, which narrows the expected margin considerably. We'll look into that. As far as future rounds are concerned, Houston has average consistency and is a very good road team, so they might have a decent run if they can avoid the upset here.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (8): (12)Oregon+4, (3)LSU+6, (13)Saint Louis+4, (8)Utah St.+10, (11)Temple+7, @(9)UCF+9, (7)Cincinnati+7, @(7)Cincinnati+16
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(11)Temple-4, (9)UCF-5, =(7)Cincinnati-12
- Other losses (0): none
Overview: Losses for Houston were few and far between this season, and they only lost to tournament-bound teams. It took until game 16 for Houston to lose at Temple; by then they'd beaten four tournament teams including 3-seed LSU. Over the next 12 games, all wins, they got their revenge on Temple, and beat UCF and Cincinnati. At 28-1, they lost at home to UCF, beat Cincy again (on the road), made their way to the AAC final, and lost to Cincinnati on a neutral court. The Cougars' last six games look like a mess of greatness bookended by two terrible games. What should we make of the home loss to UCF, and falling to a Bearcat team they beat twice? Houston lost their consistency in the last six games which casts doubt on a deep tournament run, but they played two of their very best games over this stretch, too—the win at Cincinnati and the 84-45 blowout of UConn.
Houston plays great offense and defense, but on D they boast the #1 shot defense in the country; they're #2 against 3-pointers and #5 against the 2. They block a lot of shots, too. On offense the team rebounds very well. Corey Davis Jr leads the team in scoring with 16.7 ppg.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
- Losses to tournament teams (3): @(15)Montana-7, @(12)Liberty-26, @(4)Kansas St.-12
- Other losses (6): =Creighton-25, @Troy-2, Texas St.-13, @Louisiana Monroe-6, @Louisiana-4, @Coastal Carolina-13
Overview: Georgia State only hit their stride twice this season. Once during a 7-game winning streak at the beginning of the Sun Belt race, and then in the last 5 games during the Sun Belt tournament. Before that, and in between, they were an unpredictable mess. In the early part they played three tourney-bound teams and lost to all of them. Later they dropped 4 of 6 in one stretch. But when they needed to, they won.
The Panthers shoot the 3 well but are terrible from the free throw line. They aren't a good rebounding team at all, either. They do get a lot of blocks and steals on defense, though. Due to their fast tempo, they do score a lot of points normally; five starters average in double figures, led by D'Marcus Simonds with 18.4.
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Game Analysis: Houston hasn't been consistently good in it's last 6 games, but at times they've been great...and at times bad. We don't know what to expect from the Cougars now. Georgia State is easier to predict: they'll be competent, the way they were in their last five games. Houston is the wild card here.
Houston should get past this round no matter what, even if it's close. After that it's anyone's guess: they could upset the 2-seed to make the Elite Eight, or get stopped by the 6 vs. 11 winner. They're definitely a wild card in the tournament, with lots of potential but in danger of faltering suddenly.
Here, looks for Houston to get a lot of 2nd shot opportunities, which should help them coast against the Panthers, who might have difficultly making shots against the Cougars. The Panthers will try to run which might end up working against them.
Vegas Line:
Houston by 12
Power rating: spread
Houston by 12.7
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Houston: 84.3%
Georgia St: 15.7%
A spread of around 12 points is the consensus of Vegas and our Strength power rating. Houston's 84% chance to win is about right for a 3-seed. This could be a lot closer or a lot wider than 12 points, but we really have no idea which way the Cougars will go. So we make a random guess.
Bottom line: Houston could win small or very big here, and we think they'll go big in the first round at least. They UConn by 39 in the first round of the AAC tournament, they can beat Georgia State by half that.
Final prediction: Houston 83, Georgia State 62
More previews: click here for the full 2019 NCAA tournament schedule.
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